Via WaPo: McChrystal: More Forces or ‘Mission Failure’
The top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan warns in an urgent, confidential assessment of the war that he needs more forces within the next year and bluntly states that without them, the eight-year conflict “will likely result in failure,” according to a copy of the 66-page document obtained by The Washington Post.Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal says emphatically: “Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) — while Afghan security capacity matures — risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.”
His assessment was sent to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Aug. 30 and is now being reviewed by President Obama and his national security team.
While the report apparently ends with a statement that success is possible, the overall tenor appears rather pessimistic. Statements like the following, while ultimately unsurprising, are hardly encouraging:
“The weakness of state institutions, malign actions of power-brokers, widespread corruption and abuse of power by various officials, and ISAF’s own errors, have given Afghans little reason to support their government,” McChrystal says.
The question now becomes whether a serious debate emerges in the administration, within Congress, and with the broader population about what to do next, or whether the administration will simply decide to double-down on the more troops option. I am guessing that ultimately the administration will opt to send in more troops rather than risk the political attacks that would come if it decided to “abandon Afghanistan.”
There is, it should be noted, some conservative support for such a withdrawal–for example, George Will recently wrote that it was time for the US to withdraw. However, I do not think that that sentiment is anywhere near large enough for such a move to take place. The heat that Obama took over the missile shield decision was nothing compared to what he will take if he decides to draw down in Afghanistan. As such, I suspect he will not risk his domestic political agenda over such a move (not, by the way, that I have any idea which direction the administration leans on the issue).
Further, I am not certain, one way or another, as to the proper course of action at the moment. However, I will say that it seems as if we are going to come back to this exact scenario again and again until at some point we simply decide enough is enough and leave anyway.
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September 21st, 2009 at 10:44 am
If we don’t send in more troops to actually win the war in Afghanistan then all those who died will have died for nothing. Don’t let this be another Vietnam..No win war.
September 21st, 2009 at 10:45 am
News flash: Afghanistan is a fake state in a fake nation, a total creature of the British side of the Great Game of 19th century imperialism.
Empire after empire has failed in its attempt to impose its definition of order, and this 21st century imperialist design will fail, too.
Nonetheless, I don’t expect any “serious debate” about this, because imperialism is simply not subject to debate aside from cranky fringe types that the mainstream like to mock while patting itself on the collective back about its patriotism and commitment to the great cause of Freedom.
September 21st, 2009 at 10:49 am
Donna: the problem becomes that the likelihood is that there is no winning to be had, and hence more deaths to what end?
MSS: No, there is likely to be no serious debate, one way or another.
September 21st, 2009 at 3:57 pm
I’m wife to an Air Force retiree. My children were in the military and right now a son in law is in the Army and is on second tour to Iraq. We have all been career people.If we make the decision good or bad to go in to another country and it becomes war then I say WIN IT. If it’s not worth going into or we just plan to “play” around then for God sake don’t send our men/women. Even if winning it means to turn it back to their country to run we can at least kill “the bad guy” and give them the tools to put it on the right path. Right now we are committed so send enough troops and give the leaders everything they need to end it quickly. Politics be dammed.
September 21st, 2009 at 4:00 pm
Donna,
I appreciate your perspective and your families’ service. However, the issue is, it seems to me, whether or not winning it is actually possible (or even what it would mean/look like). And, sadly, politics may cause us to not even adequately debate the issue.
September 21st, 2009 at 6:25 pm
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September 22nd, 2009 at 7:54 pm
I think it’s pretty obvious that McChrystal is willing to pressure Obama to commit more troops. First failing to hold off his assessment of the situation to a more convenient time, now there’s at least one report that McChrystal will resign if Obama rejects his call for more troops.
I think that McChrystal knows it’s going to be hard for Obama to say no. Liberals are always worried that they’ll look bad in military matters, and disagreeing with a general publicly makes any disaster his.