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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
By Steven L. Taylor

A Boot Shine While on Duty

Taken in the Plaza de Bolivar during a campaign event for Rafael Pardo, Liberal Party presidential candidate.

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By Steven L. Taylor

Pardo Speaks

Taken in the Plaza de Bolivar during a campaign event for Rafael Pardo, Liberal Party presidential candidate.

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By Steven L. Taylor

Pardo and Gaviria

Rafael Pardo and his running mate, Anibal Gaviria

Taken in the Plaza de Bolivar during a campaign event for Rafael Pardo, Liberal Party presidential candidate.

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By Steven L. Taylor

Quintet

A string ensemble–not what one expects as the warm-up act for a political event. They were quite good.

Taken in the Plaza de Bolivar during a campaign event for Rafael Pardo, Liberal Party presidential candidate.

The event was a signing of pact (social contracts, as the sign says) with various social groups (campesinos, small and micro-businesses, gay and lesbian rights groups, environmental groups, etc.), The phrase "Trato Hecho" behind the quintet means "It’s a deal."

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By Steven L. Taylor

Putting Campaign Lit to Good Use

365.76 (3/17/10).

Taken in the Plaza de Bolivar during a campaign event for Rafael Pardo, Liberal Party presidential candidate.

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Tuesday, March 16, 2010
By Steven L. Taylor

Juan Valdez Cafe

365.75 (3/16/10). Right across from the Biblioteca Luis Ángel Arango (where I have been doing some research) and the Botero Museum is right next door.

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By Steven L. Taylor

It would appear that the contest to determine the presidential candidate for the Partido Conservadora remains in deadline and is headed for what they like to call down here a “voto-finish".”   The candidates are Andrés Felipe Arias (also known as uribito, i.e., “Little Uribe” and Noemí Sanín.

Arias y Sanín

El Tiempo reports:  Si persiste la pelea entre Arias y Noemí, el conservatismo podría ‘romperse’, opinan analistas (“If the fight between Arias and Noemí persisits it could tear apart conservatism, analyst says.”)  It certainly will be a mess.  While my original inclination was to think that Arias might be willing to ally with Juan Manuel Santos of La U earlier rather thatn later, I am not so sure. 

It is worth noting that President Uribe was quoted recently as saying that of the candidates (and this may have been prior to Santos’ entry into the race) that Arias was the one that would be the most a copy of himself.  It is noteworthy, however, that Uribe declined to vote in the PC primary (and open primary that any voter can choose to participate in as long as no other primary is chosen—there were two to chose from this past Sunday).

The latest bulletin from the Registraduría is below—it is from yesterday morning and I am not sure why a new one wasn’t issued this morning.  Sanín is slightly ahead with over half of the mesas (individual voting tables) having reported.   One suspect that remaining mesas are more rural, and that favors Arias.

image

Photo Source:  El Tiempo.

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Filed under: 2010 Elections, Colombia | Comments/Trackbacks (4) | | Show Comments here
Monday, March 15, 2010
By Steven L. Taylor

Up Amid the Andes

365.74 (3/15/10). I took a few hours off from researching this afternoon to ride the funicular up to Monserrate (which you can see in relation to the city here and the church itself on top the mountain here). The mountain is at over 10,000 feet above sea level. Unfortunately because of a wild fire, clouds and air pollution the views of the city weren’t that good. It seemed from below that it was going to be clearer than it ended up to be.

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By Steven L. Taylor

One of the ironies about being on the ground here in Bogotá is that I have had less time to write about the elections than I would have had had I stayed in Alabama.

I was planning to sit down today and write something long-ish, but haven’t had time and now lack energy.  Here are some basics quick-takes which focus primarily on the Senate:

  • There is no doubt that this is a vote for continuation of Uribe’s policies.  One needed not be a Colombia expert to figure this out.  La U and the PC together will go into the session with 50 seats out of 102.  The PIN with 9 seats and Cambio Radical with 8 would vote with this bloc.  As such, if Juan Manuel Santos of La U wins the presidency, which strikes me as likely, he will have a strong base of support in the Senate (and likely the Chamber, but I am leaving them aside for the moment).
  • The Partido Conservador has gone from a party that seemed to be dying a slow death has rebounded of late to assume a place of prominence as part of the governing coalition.  Of course, it is a significant commentary on the evolution of Colombian politics that 22 seats in the Senate equates to the aforementioned place of prominence.  Indeed, it wasn’t that long ago that when they won something like 21 seats1 in the Senate it was a sign of the aforementioned slow death.
  • The Partido Liberal has gone from a party seemingly in the permanent majority to a party seemingly of the permanent opposition.  This started in 1998 and really was obvious by 2002.   If you want to know  a substantial part of the story of why, I know of a certain book2 that might help.
  • The phenomenon of the PIN (Party of National Integration), which Greg Weeks obliquely referenced today is an interesting and disturbing phenomenon that I plan to discuss further shortly.  The short version is that this is a party that evolved from a series of parties which had their legal status revoked because of connections to paramilitary groups which is called the parapolítica scandal.  Many of the candidates are family members of politicians who were charged (and even convicted) in the scandal.  The PIN, by the way, can be expected, as noted, to vote with La U and the PC.
  • The Polo Democrático Alternativo (the party of the left/center-left) continues that sector’s history within Colombian politics—i.e., of disorganization and internal in-fighting.  At the moment my impression of the Polo is that it is behaving a bit like the AD/M-19 did a decade+ ago.  Indeed, the Polo emerged, in part, from the ashes of the AD/M-19.
  • The prevalence of null votes does indicate a real problem with process, which I witnessed first-hand yesterday. That will get its own post shortly as well.

Basic results can be views at El Tiempo’s web site.

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  1. I am too lazy to look at the numbers right now, but I am thinking back to 1994. []
  2. Which, I notice, is now on sale at a fairly hefty discount.  I am not sure what that means… []
Filed under: 2010 Elections, Colombia, Latin America | Comments/Trackbacks (5) | | Show Comments here
By Steven L. Taylor

Via the BBC:  Sarkozy’s right-wing UMP facing election defeat (in local elections).  The issue is what signals this sends for the 2012 presidential and parliamentary elections.

Also via the BBC:  Defiant Brown will ‘keep going’ even without majority.  By “keep going” he means as Labour Party leader.  This will give the Tories something to run on, one supposes.

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