Here’s my final prediction for the electoral vote for tomorrow: Obama 364, McCain 174.
In terms of the national popular vote, I expect a 6% margin of victory for Obama.
For long time readers, this means that Obama is Wonderbread and McCain is Toast.
Or, if one prefers a graphical representation:
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(No, it isn’t very political science-y, and yet it amuses me. For those unfamiliar, the Toast-o-Meter was a regular feature during the 2004 cycle, as well as during the 2008 primary season).
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November 3rd, 2008 at 9:49 pm
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
November 4th, 2008 at 1:22 am
[...] MUST READ PREDICTION: Political Scientist Dr. Steven Taylor’s predictions. Taylor is a solid and serious analyst of politics and a longtime TMV favorite. This post is in the [...]
November 4th, 2008 at 2:17 am
McCain may be done in respect to Tuesday’s affair but I’m looking forward to at least one more endearing appearance on SNL.
November 4th, 2008 at 7:54 am
I was stressing about the election earlier, but now that I have a Plan B, I am not quite so worried. Should McCain and co. take over 1600 Pennsyvania Avenue, one of my friends in Canada said I could come and live with her.
November 4th, 2008 at 9:52 am
My map is essentially the same as yours, but I also gave Obama IN, MT, and ND. I think his victory might be slightly more than the polls are saying.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Yeah, right. You know, if even half of the people who said they’d move to Canada if Bush won a second term actually did it, even New York would be a red state now. Nobody ever actually leaves the country because so-and-so won or lost.
Beyond that, of all the places people could go, why do they always pick cCanada? Move someplace nice.
It’s good to have a bailout plan in case things go really bad here (which they could) but Canada isn’t a good choice. It’s too close, there is enormous anti-americanism there (they hate americans with the fire of a thousand suns) and the economy sucks, so good luck finding work.
Your bailout plan shouldn’t be if X gets elected, but rather if you start to see warning signs that democracy is deteriorating. I have certain things that I’m looking for to trigger my bailout response, none of which would be triggered by either of these guys winning. What Obama does after - we’ll have to wait and see, a year or two from now things might look very different, or, more likely, they will look very much the same as they do now. Neither of these guys is capable of much real change. That entails serious movement of the bureacracy, which involves thousands in government offices all over America. Face it, no real change is coming; just a new face.
Still, you never know. If it comes to it, I’m moving to Belize and working as a SCUBA instructor. The economy in Belize isn’t so hot, except in the tourist trade, which doesn’t draw only on American dollars to exist - it’s a world-famous dive locale, and I’m already certified to teach. It’s got the second longest barrier reef in the world. Even if the US economy stays in the toilet there will always be rich people somewhere in the world who want to dive the pristine reefs of Belize. Beyond that, it’s an English-speaking (mostly) country in the Western Hemisphere that has a pretty stable democratic government. And it’s nice and warm there.
I mean, seriously - if you’re going to leave the country, go somewhere tropical for God’s sake. Canada? That place is frozen half the year. If you’re going to expatriate, do it with some style.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Hmmm.
November 4th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Brett:
I almost gave him ND, but looking at the numbers and the historical trends (Bush won by over 20%), I decided to go against it (although you are in the same company as George Will, who gave Obama ND as well on Sunday).
I was tempted by IN as well.
I do think that if the polls are proved to be wrong, they will be wrong in Obama’s favor, not McCain’s.
November 4th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Capt. D, I saw signs that the electoral process was deteriorating in 2001. I am quite serious about Canada.
November 4th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
[...] again, my EC prediction: 364-174 for [...]
November 4th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
[...] Steven Taylor: Obama 364, McCain 174 [...]
November 5th, 2008 at 7:48 am
[...] course, most important of all at this stage is how close to reality were my predictions! So far, the only state I missed was Indiana, which I predicted would go McCain. If the NYT is on [...]
November 8th, 2008 at 9:18 am
[...] to Steven Taylor, who was the closest: Obama 364, McCain 174. In addition to not forecasting the Nebraska split, [...]