Via the BBC: Iraq extends militiamen deadline
A statement from Prime Minister Nouri Maliki’s office read: “All those who have heavy and intermediate weapons are to deliver them to security sites and they will be rewarded financially. This will start from March 28 to April 8.”
For those keeping score at home, the deadline for fighting to cease was set at 72 hours earlier in the week.
Using my finally honed political science powers, I would come to conclusion that this maneuver likely means that the Maliki government has realized that it cannot enforce the original deadline. Of course if that is true, it likely can’t enforce the new deadline, either.
Further, one suspects that like guns-for-cash programs aimed at gangs in the US, that the Iraqis will collect some weapons. But, just as weapons exchange programs in US inner cities do not make gang violence disappear, neither will this offer end the violence or cause the Mehdi Army to vanish in a puff of smoke.
Still, there is some positive indication that some local leaders have turned in fighters to the government:
UK military spokesman Maj Tom Holloway said: “A number of local sheikhs have handed in militia members and ammunition and explosives, and the prime minister is hoping to extend the window of opportunity to others.”
It seems unlikely in the extreme, however, that surrender/being turned over by local shiekhs is the likely fate of those currently fighting in Basra, especially given that the current uprising is mostly the work of Sadr’s Mehdi Army. Sadr has made statements about a peaceful resolution, but
aides to Mr Sadr on Friday told the BBC that no talks with the government were yet in prospect.
It is possible that Maliki’s original threat of crackdown led to capitulation (and I am sure that many will interpret it as such), but given the anemic nature of the Maliki government along with the chimeric natural of the Iraqi state, it would be foolish to accept at this stage the notion that it all it took was a stern threat from the PM to stem the tide of violence.
Indeed, if there was a real possibility of a serious reversal, it would be more likely that a cease fire would be forthcoming, not an announcement that fighting will likely continue for another week and a half at least (which is essentially what the extension of the deadline will end up to be).
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