Boz wonders: Does war help Chavez?
In the post he cites Chávez’s low popularity numbers and he notes:
Although war may spark a brief nationalistic poll bump in Venezuela, it is far more likely to harm Chavez’s approval ratings than help them over the medium and long term. Whatever reasons Chavez has for saber-rattling, boosting his polls is not likely to be one of them.
I think that that is ultimately true. However, that does not mean that Chávez realizes this and therefore it is always possible that he is miscalculating.
Further, I have long thought that one of Chávez’s main goals is to fashion himself into a regional, anti-US leader of the smaller and poorer Latin American states. His overtures to places like Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua fit this pattern, as does the fact that he has built these ties via personal relationship with the leaders of the country’s in question.1 As such, it seems to me that part of his motivation is to solidify his ties with Correa in Ecuador and to, in general, appear to be the defender of small states in the region whilst also standing up to the state most allied with the US in the region, i.e., Colombia. I also wouldn’t discount his obvious personal animus towards Uribe.
Update: Matthew Stinson gives Chávez’s motivations some thought as well.
Sphere: Related Content- And as he had hoped to do in Peru if Ollanta Humala had won. [↩]
March 3rd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
The real question here is . . . is Chavez crazy, and if he is, is he crazy like a fox, or just plum crazy?
This could either be empty saber rattling (that’s what a corespondent on the BBC thought this morning), or Chavez just might go ahead and invade. It seems that the people of both countries don’t want war, but Chavez may well send in the troops anyway. Uribe doesn’t strike me as someone who would pull the trigger on war, but you know Columbia much better than I, so I’ll defer to you on that one. Would Uribe start a war, or will escalation be sure to come from Chavez, no matter what is claimed?
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
[...] Poliblogger has more. Lots more. Lots, lots more. [...]
March 4th, 2008 at 1:18 am
As I noted in my post, I don’t think Hugo Chavez really wants to go to war, but he does want the masses to embrace his “Bolivarianism,” which includes a heavy nationalist component. If the people no longer have the stomach for his economic platform, then they might be open to nationalist appeals against a “common enemy,” with Colombia a proxy for the US.
The important factor to consider is the degree of media control Chavez has in the country. Can he really convince the Venezuelan people that Uribe is a threat to them, that the FARC were natural allies of the Venezuelans, and the like, or is there enough independent information exchange going on for Venezuelans to evaluate things on their own?
March 4th, 2008 at 9:26 am
Matthew,
I actually don’t think that he can, but we shall see.
Further I think that it is less about spreading “Bolivarianism” (which is ill defined at best) than it is about personal power.
Further, I am not certain that the military would ultimately support a real war.
S
March 4th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Dr. T, my position is that Bolivarianism IS Chavezism
Bolivar wasn’t a nationalist, he’d roll over in his grave to see what’s being done in his name. Your point about the military is true, and I wonder about the possibility of another coup if Chavez actually looked ready to declare war.
March 4th, 2008 at 10:03 pm
I take the point.