Via the NY Sun: Giuliani Begins Retreat From New Hampshire

Rudolph Giuliani’s decision to largely abandon the early voting state of New Hampshire and concentrate his efforts on the Florida primary three weeks later reflects an uncomfortable truth for the former New York mayor: The more he campaigned in the Granite State and the more he spent on advertising there, the more his poll numbers dropped.

So, Giuliani is conceding both Iowa and New Hampshire, and it placing his chips on Florida? This could work, I suppose, but it assumes that a win in Florida, and other early states, can counteract the positive press for the winners of the two early contests, and the commensurate negative press that the losers of those contests will receive. An especially problematic scenario might be if McCain manages to emerge from New Hampshire with some new energy, as I would think that many voters who find Giuliani appealing might actually prefer McCain (given Giuliani’s baggage and socially liberal views) if they think that McCain actually has a shot.

In terms of delegate numbers, the early contests are not that significant, and so it is not illogical to ignore them. However, what Rudy’s apparent strategy will test is the hypothesis that the importance of momentum and press coverage that come out of IA and NH are highly influential over subsequent contests. Do voters in post-IA/NH states really allow those contests to shape their views of the candidates, or is that simply conventional wisdom? Clearly, it is possible to lose either or both and still be nominated, but in a crowded field, and with voters looking for indicators of electability, could poort early showings knock someone like Giuliani out? Or, at least, damage him greatly?

In Iowa, Giuliani is third or fourth (maybe worse, depending on the MOE), depending on the poll, and it hovering near single digits.

In New Hampshire, he is in mostly in third place (although the Concord Monitor has him second), but again the MOE matters, and depending on the poll, he could be in fourth.

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4 Responses to “Rudy Abandoning NH?”

1. Kenny Says:
   December 18th, 2007 at 9:38 am

   “Do voters in post-IA/NH states really allow those contests to shape their views of the candidates”

   I would think it would be more the media effects rather than the actual voters themselves, no? Much like morning after debate coverage…

2. MSS Says:
   December 18th, 2007 at 11:16 am

   A floor flight at the convention would be so cool.

   It could happen, given the party’s unwillingnes to grant Florida its full delegate count as punishment for daring to tread on NH’s sacred rights.

   Of course, it will be moot if Giuliani continues to collapse, as I always thought he would, and am pretty confident he will go on doing. And, come to think of it, seeing the Mayor of 9/11 collapse is even more fun than a floor fight.

3. The Florida Masochist Says:
   December 18th, 2007 at 11:22 am

   Gambling on Florida

   Is Rudy Giuliani pulling out of New Hampshire?

4. PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Rudy and the Dreaded “R” Word Says:
   December 21st, 2007 at 7:47 am

   [...] This piece is interesting, if anything because it contradicts a NY Sun piece from earlier in the week that suggested that Giuliani was pulling his resources out of NH to focus on Florida. [...]