Via WUSA9.com: Exclusive Poll Results Show Allen Losing Ground
In an election for the United States Senate in Virginia today, 8/21/06, incumbent Republican George Allen edges Democrat challenger James Webb 48% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for W*USA-TV in Washington, DC.Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6/28/06, Allen has lost 8 points and Webb has gained 8 points. Allen’s lead has shrunk from 19 points to 3 points.
There are several interesting issues here. Clearly, Allen stepped in it with the “Macaca” business (video). And, I think he made it worse by providing rather implausible (I meant “Mohawk”) explanations.
I think that that event both raised questions of racism and also made Allen look something like a bully by picking on one lone young man.
More than that, however, I think that the event has caused a great deal of scrutiny to be aimed at Allen and his background. For one thing, the Confederate Flag pin flap from his high school yearbook is receiving more scrutiny because of the above-noted event. One gets a pass on one questionable event, but people start to stop and wonder after a second (and let me note: having gone to High School in California myself, it is by no means common for students there to display the battle flag-had he had the flag pin on in Virginia it would have seemed less odd).
From there the fact that he was born in California and grew up there, and has a mother from outside the US raises the question of where all his southern affectations have come from.
As such, I think that his authenticity comes into question.
While I don’t think that the “Macaca” incident alone has done the damage, I think it was the catalyst for a re-evaluation of Allen. Beyond whatever effect it will have on his Senate race, I think that this incident will lead to greater scrutiny of Allen and has damaged his presidential aspirations.
In short, the following are true:
- There are now two factoids about Allen that can raise the race question. Whether one find them credible or not, their existence is poisonous for someone seeking the presidency.
- His dissembling over the Macaca incident demonstrates a certain lack of political skills–not to mention it makes him look like he’s hiding something.
- The more opportunities to have his “Virginianess” questions, the more his overall integrity will be called into question.
As such, I think that Allen has taken a significant step back in his presidential aspirations.
James Joyner, who lives in Virginia, is skeptical of the numbers.
Steven M. at No More Mister Nice Blog has a plausible theory to explain the dramatic nature of the numbers.
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August 22nd, 2006 at 8:45 am
George Allen’s Lead 18 Point Lead Evaporates
George Allen’s 18 point lead over Jim Webb has shrunk to 3 points in just one week, according to one poll.
In an election for the United States Senate in Virginia today, 8/21/06, incumbent Republican George Allen edges Democrat challenger James W…
August 22nd, 2006 at 12:55 pm
Steven:
I thought that his drop was profound among younger folks. If so, isn’t it possible that the rather unflattering video of him bullying Sidarth had some effect? I mean, just watch that video and then tell me that you think that guy can be trusted with using power in a way that will benefit all his constituents.
I don’t dispute your contention that the incident helped to focus attention on Allen more broadly, and that some folks gave him a closer look and didn’t like what they say. But I would be surprised if the video didn’t have direct effects.
August 22nd, 2006 at 3:54 pm
Brett,
As I noted–I think that the bullying element is significant, but I don’t think that the Macaca business in and of itself is the whole story. I think that it has caused a re-evaluation of Allen in a broader sense.
These kinds of situations tend to build on themselves and creates a specific context. The usage of Macaca alone would have been less of a big deal (though still an issue) if it couldn’t be placed in the context of the battle flag pin.
The ref to the battle flag pin is a reminder that Allen isn’t from the South. Further, the Macaca ref brings up the fact that his mother is of French African descent–which is somewhat incongruent with the boot-wearin’ “aw shucks” persona that Allen has cultivated. That then leads to people wondering about his authenticity, and so forth.
August 23rd, 2006 at 4:48 am
A Conservative Message to Blacks: Sink or Swim
I really don’t know where this idea that Republicans are racist came from.
September 21st, 2006 at 9:54 am
[...] Indeed. Of course, if one says enough stupid things, one will be perceived of as stupid, and therefore have a hard time getting elected to a new office (and perhaps trouble getting re-elected to the old one). Further, all this stuff feeds in a growing narrative concerning Allen that call into question his authenticity (a point I argued here about the “Macaca” flap). Add to that growing evidence of incompetence, and I begin to wonder if Allen has a prayer of winning the GOP nomination in 2008. [...]