Information

academic site


e-mail
c.v.
columns
legal
rss .92
2.0
The Collective
Saturday, October 11, 2008
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Well, perhaps more like guessing.

I was looking at the electoral college map and I do not see a scenario wherein McCain wins, as it seems highly unlikely that he can retain the Bush 2000 or 2004 states (and that is his only route to victory).

Using the CNN Electoral Map Calculator I generated three maps.

This is what I think is the most likely outcome at the moment:

Despite what some of the polling is showing, it seems unlikely that Obama will win Indiana and West Vriginia. However, Ohio and Pennsylvania appears utterly lost to the GOP, and I think that Florida will go blue as well (although it is close at at the moment).

Even what seems to me as McCain’s best case scenario at the moment has Obama being sworn in in January:

All the “best case” does for McCain is add Florida and Nevada (which is far from enough).

McCain’s worst case at the moment (in my estimation) looks like this:

While not 1984, it is still a substantial EC win for Obama. Even should something happen to make things even worse for McCain, I am not sure what other state he would lose. Going by Nate Silver’s numbers over at the 538, North Dakota and Montana are perhaps the closest to a flip: North Dakota is at +4.6 Montana is at +4.7. Other one digit differentials: Georgia at +5.1 for McCain and Arkansas is +6.8 and Louisiana +6.9.

Still, it would take something pretty dramatic for most, if not all, of those states to flip.

Thoughts/opinions?

Sphere: Related Content

Filed under: 2008 Campaign, US Politics | |

8 Comments »

  1. I’m very skeptical of West Virginia, as the optimism there seems to be fueled by a single good polling result by a crummy pollster, ARG. There hasn’t been enough polling there to see where it really stands, so I still consider it unlikely until more polls show otherwise.

    The enthusiasm is on Obama’s side, especially among African Americans who will probably break all turnout records. I doubt polls factor that in adequately, since there’s not much precedent to build an estimation on other than the primaries. His organizing is also superior, so he may outperform an already very favorable map. As such I think he’ll take North Carolina as well as Nevada even though they’re both coin tosses at the moment. The trends are already in his favor in each. Otherwise I agree with your first map.

    However, I think Nate’s projections are overly optimistic about Indiana and Missouri when you look at the actual polling. I consider those two Obama’s possible surprises of the night, rather than being clean wins if things go really well and looking for surprises elsewhere like in Montana.

    Comment by Gg — Saturday, October 11, 2008 @ 10:34 am

  2. Also, having clicked on CNN’s calculator, I find it amusing that they go right up to the edge of declaring Obama’s victory likely but can’t bring themselves to do it. MSNBC’s politics page is the same way. Part of it is that it’s in their interest for it to be a race, but I think more of it is not wanting to be accused of being in the tank for Obama or prematurely declaring the race over. They’re clearly squirming and need to deny reality a bit to try to appear unbiased.

    Comment by Gg — Saturday, October 11, 2008 @ 10:44 am

  3. The 2008 presidential election is all but over. Obama will be the winner over an opponent that found it difficult to even get out of bed in the morning. McCain bit off more than he could chew by opposing a much younger and more talented contender. The American public is soon going to get a rare treat as they watch a relatively unknown personality take the job as leader of the most powerful nation on Earth. The economy in shambles and his task will be huge. But with his youthful vigour we will be watching a new and creative approach for getting our nation back on course. With the election of the most liberal senator in Congress we can expect positive changes in the way Americans view one another. An organization called Unity House will soon be lobbying for the job of bringing the nation under one roof. Once approved and funded by Congress one million educators will spread out with the task of unifying the nation under the flag of unity. This will be done by the knocking on every door by groups of socially diversified educators. They will be spreading the word that we are all brothers and sisters that must learn to love one another. There will be those that will be angry as he dismantles a cold war system that is costing the taxpayers over a trillion dollars each year, but he will succeed. Our nation will then see millions of new jobs created as our intra-structure and education system is rebuilt to meet the needs of the 21 century. Obama has not been harnessed by greedy insiders and will be free to pursue his childhood dream of making the world and the nation a better place to live in.

    Comment by New York — Saturday, October 11, 2008 @ 5:05 pm

  4. Obama will be an accidental champion, who won by having the good fortune of having an economy decades in the making finally boil over a month before an election, thus ensuring the incumbent party loses. Obama does not matter. He could be my cat and he would still win.

    That’s assuming some other event doesn’t happen between now and then to change things in McCain’s favor. If there was a huge terrorist attack tomorrow that killed ten thousand people - this map would look very different. Overnight, it would change red, just like it changed blue overnight on news of the economic problems, because nobody has faith in Obama as a commander in chief, except for people in New York and Califonia, and they do McCain. I’m not sure that that faith is any more logical than the belief that Obama will fix the economy; both seem more like tenets of a religion that need to be taken on faith alone than they do rational positions held by people who have looked at the data and made a competent decision.

    Ironically, neither of these guys has a coherent plan for getting the economy back on track. Obama is just perceived to be better because he’s not part of the incumbent party.

    Which, again, is why I hate, HATE political parties. All they do is give people who can’t stand on their own merits a gang to fight their battles for them. This works both ways (dem and rep). Political parties allow lesser men to achieve great positions of power. I know you think I’m wrong Dr. T, but we COULD govern without political parties. Yes we could. We just haven’t given it an honest go; if you want we can thumb-wrestle over it, but I really believe it could be done.

    If there were no political parties, there would be no identifying some candidate with the incumbent party. It would be about the actual candidates, and not the party they are affiliated with. The incumbent president would not affect the outcome of the election. Currently - he has a huge amount to do with it. Why? Bush is not up for re-election, folks! We’re more concerned with party affiliation than we are with looking at these guys on their actual merits.

    In any case, either guy - however it goes - is likely to be a one-term president. Expectations are ridiculously high and the problems they are dealing with - goodness - you can’t even start addressing them in a way that will have any meaning in 4 years, at least, not within the context of our constitution and the bureacracy that supports it. At the end of the term, people are going to be at best in the same place that they are now - and so is the rest of the world. Neither of these guys has a magic wand - and that’s what it would take to deliver even one onehundredth of what they are promising.

    When 4 years pass and they haven’t given up the goods, the voters are going to give them the big boot in the rear. That’s assuming our political system survives that long. I’m not entirely confident that it will.

    One would do well to make preparations for an Obama presidency; if you don’t own a gun, buy one while you can; and make a plan for yourself in case this place really does go seriously socialist. It would be smart to take some of your savings out of the bank - keep it in a safe - in case the government seizes private assets held in banks in order to cover its inability to make budget should foreign investors finally decide to bail. Hedge yourself while you can; you might not have the freedom to do so in a few more months.

    One of my best friends - his grandmother and her father were the only members of his entire family to escape the Ukraine when the Bolsheviks took over. They slaughtered everyone else (they were nobility, and had money, you see); my friend would not have existed if his grandfather hadn’t had a plan. He’d squirrelled away enough gold to skip across Eastern Europe, finally settling in Ohio. Most of his family assumed that what had happened in Russia simply couldn’t happen to them. They paid a steep price for not being prepared - they were slaughtered in the name of progress and change.

    I’ve said before, people should be self reliant. Keep enough cash on hand to get through an economic failure. Gold and silver are a good option. Rhodium and Palladium are even better, because the government doesn’t have a history of seizing these (it did seize private gold during the raw deal under FDR) and in a desperate budget crunch they might be overlooked. Have a passport and know how you’ll get out of the country if you need to do so in a hurry.

    With either of these candidates (but Obama more than McCain) free enterprise and the rule of law under the constitution are in danger. If you’re one of the folks who applaud that because you hate those things, just ignore this. If you’re like me and treasure these things - I’m just saying, be prepared. Don’t be my best friend’s extended family.

    They didn’t think it could happen to them. What about you?

    Me, I’m hoping it all works out - but if it doesn’t, I’m going to have several options of getting out. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

    Comment by Captain D — Saturday, October 11, 2008 @ 9:09 pm

  5. Funny, I was just playing around with these interactive maps myself (well, actually, those at 270towin).

    At this point I will be surprised if Obama does not win Indiana and Missouri, not surprised if he also wins West Virginia and North Carolina, and expect Georgia to be one of the most interesting to watch on election night.

    That would total 395. Add one Nebraska vote that appears within reach and you have 396. As far as I can tell, there is no realistic path to 400. But 375-380 sure looks likely, and 395 or 396 reachable.

    I can’t imagine a scenario for McCain, but that makes me a broken record, because I have been saying that since February if not earlier.

    Comment by MSS — Sunday, October 12, 2008 @ 2:29 pm

  6. Obama will be an accidental champion (from the comment before my first one here).

    Yes, just like Reagan in 1980.

    Comment by MSS — Sunday, October 12, 2008 @ 2:30 pm

  7. Yes, just like Reagan. Just like most politicians in recent history. I’m beginning to feel like luck has far more to do with the game than the individuals playing it.

    Comment by Captain D — Sunday, October 12, 2008 @ 6:24 pm

  8. I forgot about North Dakota. It could be the state to get Obama to 400.

    I don’t think it is likely, but should not be ruled out. And one poll (see 538.com) has just come out with Obama +2 in ND. Believable? I am not sure. I would not rule it out.

    I think Montana (which at times in spring looked competitive) is a bit farther out of reach, thanks to the post-Palin base-rallying. But Paul is on the ballot…

    Comment by Matthew — Monday, October 13, 2008 @ 11:24 am

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

The trackback url for this post is: http://www.poliblogger.com/wp-trackback.php?p=14304

NOTE: I will delete any TrackBacks that do not actually link and refer to this post.

Leave a comment



Take a Look At This!
Inquiries

Visitors Since 2/15/03
Blogroll

Wikio - Top of the Blogs - Politics
---


Advertisement

Advertisement


Powered by WordPress

PoliBlog (TM): A Rough Draft of my Thoughts is Digg proof thanks to caching by WP Super Cache!