PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » The Sunny Palmetto ToM

~Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2024 election~

~If Sabato can use a crystal ball, why can’t I use a toaster?~

General News, Poll, Commentary and Bloggage

Via the LAT: Democrats may vote by race in South Carolina (who knew?)
Charles Franklin @ Pollster.com: South Carolina Democratic Endgame
John Sides @ The Monkey Cage: Why Is It Hard for Senators to Become President?
Philip Klinkner @ Polysigh: Deep Breath Time (on the question of whether this year’s contest defies normal patterns or not.)
Daniel Drezner: Everybody Hates Someone
OTB: Who Destroyed the Republican Party?
OTB: Super Tuesday Not So Super?

Checking the Bread: Movement Since the Last ToM


Barack Obama	Dough is on the rise	Mitt Romney	Dough is on the rise.
Hillary Clinton	Dough is on the rise	John McCain	Dough is on the rise.
John Edwards	What’s that smell?	Mike Huckabee	Getting darker.
Dennis Kucinich	Out of the race	Rudy Giuliani	Getting darker—nearly combustible, in fact.
Mike Gravel	Is that mold?	Ron Paul	Is that straw bread?
		Fred Thompson	Adios, tostito.
		Duncan Hunter	Gone

Gazing into the Polished Stainless Steel of the Toaster. Aside from people dropping out of the race (Thompson, Kucinich, Hunter), there really hasn’t been any serious movement, toastwise. On the Democratic side, it is basically Obama v. Clinton, with neither candidate having a clear advantage at this time. And while it is true that if one looks solely at delegates counts, the race is wide-open (meaning Edwards could still get into the mix), the fact of the matter is that sequencing and press coverage have become so integral to this process that it is difficult so Edwards emerging as a serious contender for the nomination.

Florida will very much set the stage for February 5^th on the GOP side, as the results could effectively kill Giuliani’s campaign (which, delusions aside, is on toast-support at the moment) and likewise could either solidify McCain as the semi-front runner or give Romney a real, solid win that would put him on top.



The bag is currently empty.	The bag is currently empty.

Barack Obama Obama appears set to win SC. The question becomes what that will mean for the 5^th and how much of the post-SC analysis will focus solely on the race question (which seems to be the theme for the Dems this year). Via the LAT: Obama supporters working the female vote TalkLeft: Obama And Edwards Are On The FL Ballot Too Hillary Clinton Clinton appears to have conceded SC and is looking to the Februrary 5^th contests. In regards to Clinton’s current move (noted in several links below) to have the MI and FL delegates recognized at the summer’s convention would have been impressive if she had stood up for democracy before the primary season started. Now she simply looks opportunistic, given that she was the only major candidate on the MI ballot and her timing makes it appear that she is pandering to Florida voters in advance of the contests there where no Dems are “allowed” to campaign (and where Clinton leads in the polls). WaPo: Clinton Now Looking Beyond S.C. The Politico: Clinton pursues selective strategy in S.C. Joe Gandelman @ TMV: Hillary Clinton: Changing The Rules On Florida And Michigan Delegates? OTB: Hillary Clinton Trying to Steal Nomination? HillaryClinton.com: Statement by Senator Hillary Clinton on the Seating of Delegates at the Democratic National Convention	John McCain If McCain wins he will have back-to-back major victories to go along with his NH win and this will give the media all the reasons they need to crown him as the likely winner. OTB: Chuck Norris Says McCain Too Old Foxnews: Rambo v. Walker, Texas Ranger: Stallone Backs McCain Against Norris’ Huckabee Steve Bainbridge explains why Thompson supporters aren’t keen on McCain. Mitt Romney A loss for Romney means a week of questions about his capacity to capture the nomination and a great deal of discussion about the quality of his MI, NV and WY wins. However, if he bests McCain FL, he will find himself clearly ahead in the delegate count and will also be given the media-glow of Front Runner going into the 5^th. OTB: Everybody Hates Mitt Mike Huckabee Huckabee strikes me as the Andy Warhol candidate—i.e,. his fifteen minutes of front running appear over. Sure, he may win a couple of southern states on the 5^th, bu it is difficult to look ahead and chart a course wherein he wins. Maybe he’s veepable, but really he appears to have a lot of potential on the late-night chat show tour. LAT: Huckabee’s book deal after Jonesboro tragedy still rankles Via Bloomberg.com: Huckabee Prepared to Run a Lean Campaign Philip Klinkner @ PolySigh: Evangelicals and the Huckabee Vote

John Edwards Could Edwards give his campaign a jolt by coming in second today in SC? The polling seems to indicate that it could happen. But even if he does, he still will not have transformed a fundamentally two-candidate race into a three-candidate contest. He will have to do far more than come in second in the state of his birth to accomplish that feat.

	Rudy Giuliani I suppose the operate lesson here is that if you don’t choose your firewall wisely, you get burned. Barring a miraculous turn of events, Florida will confirm on Tuesday what has been evident for some time: that Rudy is done. Chris Lawrence @ OTB: Giuliani in Florida Freefall Radley Balko @ Hit and Run: Giuliani the Thug Gail Collins in the NYT: Heeere’s Rudy! Ron Paul Save for cash, Paul is quite crumbly. He has the capacity to keep running as sort of Undead Zombie Toast, and should he wish to try and continue to spread his ideological message, he can do so. However, win he will not (as Master Yoda might say). One does have to wonder if he still might not be tempted to take his cash and launch a third party bid.

Mike Gravel Has anyone actually seen Gravel lately?

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9 Responses to “The Sunny Palmetto ToM”

Political Mavens » Pop Goes the Toast Says:
January 26th, 2024 at 11:40 am
[...] The Sunny Palmetto ToM [...]
The Moderate Voice Says:
January 26th, 2024 at 12:00 pm
A Political Scientist’s Concise Assesement Of Campaign 2024 As Of Now

MUST READING FOR ANYONE WHO FOLLOWS THE CAMPAIGN. Political scientist Steven Taylor’s latest Toast-0-Meter is up.
This is required reading for anyone who follows politics. He gives you no-nonsense takes on where the campaign is, who’s up an…
Professor Chaos Says:
January 26th, 2024 at 1:15 pm
This is going to become a bit problematic if/when Obama begins to “get darker” and ultimately becomes “burnt toast” …
Dr. Steven Taylor Says:
January 26th, 2024 at 5:25 pm
Yes, I must confess that that thought occurred me a few weeks back…
Outside The Beltway | OTB Says:
January 27th, 2024 at 6:52 am
South Carolina Post-Mortem, Democrat Edition

As Chris Lawrence posted last night, Barack Obama handily won the South Carolina Democratic primary and native son John Edwards came in third.

The results, with a record turnout, were stunning:

Obama has long been projected to win, of course, but …
Jan Says:
January 27th, 2024 at 11:32 am
Well, we can always hope that Obama never makes it to the burnt toast category. Think on the bright side.
PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Rudy Tuesday Says:
January 29th, 2024 at 7:57 pm
[...] Well, it’s clear that Rudy’s delusional Florida fantasies have crumbled to the bottom of the toaster. [...]
Political Mavens » Rudy Tuesday Says:
January 29th, 2024 at 7:57 pm
[...] Well, it’s clear that Rudy’s delusional Florida fantasies have crumbled to the bottom of the toaster. [...]
PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » The Super-Duper (Perhaps Even Wuper!) Toast-o-Meter Says:
February 4th, 2024 at 8:33 pm
[...] Checking the Bread: Movement Since the Last ToM [...]