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The Collective
Monday, January 14, 2008
By Dr. Steven Taylor

In today’s WaPo, George Will details the current state of the GOP (George F. Will - A GOP Numbers Crunch), noting, amongst many others bits of informations:

Today, all the usual indicators are dismal for Republicans. If that broad assertion seems counterintuitive, produce a counterexample. The adverse indicators include: shifts in voters’ identifications with the two parties (Democrats now 50 percent, Republicans 36 percent); the tendency of independents (they favored Democratic candidates by 18 points in 2006); the fact that Democrats hold a majority of congressional seats in states with 303 electoral votes; the Democrats’ strength and the Republicans’ relative weakness in fundraising; the percentage of Americans who think the country is on the “wrong track”; the Republicans’ enthusiasm deficit relative to Democrats’ embrace of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, one of whom will be nominated.

Indeed, even given the caveat that the election is just shy of 10 months away and that a lot can change in that period of time, it is difficult to see a Republican being inaugurated in January of 2009. Put it this way: what state that John Kerry won in 2004 is a Republican likely to win in 2008? Once one has pondered that question, ask which states that Bush won in 2004 could a Democrat win in 2008? The answer to the former question is a toughie, but the answer to the latter is relatively easy: Ohio and Florida at a minimum spring to mind (and, of course, if either of those states goes Democratic, the overwhelming likelihood is that a Democrat takes the White House, as the chances that there is some sort of Republican offset is practically nil).

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Filed under: 2008 Campaign, US Politics | |

8 Comments

  1. 2008 Prediction Games

    Michael Medved has a much-linked column assessing the Republican candidates’ chances of beating Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in November based on some “trial heat” surveys. He figures Mitt Romney is the worst of the plausible nomi…

    Trackback by Outside The Beltway | OTB — Monday, January 14, 2008 @ 8:30 am

  2. To states that the Dem is likely to carry that went to Bush in 2004, I would add Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, and probably Colorado. Not quite as likely, but well within reach are Virginia, Montana, and maybe Tennessee and Arkansas. If McCain is not the GOP nominee, perhaps Arizona.

    Agreed, it is very hard to see any swinging the other way. In fact, right now, I would say there is no such state even in the plausible pick-up category.

    Looks like an electoral-vote blowout in the making to me, even if it is relatively close in the popular vote (as I expect it to be).

    Comment by MSS — Monday, January 14, 2008 @ 7:49 pm

  3. I could see the Republicans picking up Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. All of those had spreads comparable to Florida and Ohio in 2004. Of course, they could pick up none of those states and still win.

    In 2003 or so The Note commented that Kerry’s victory was assured because nobody would vote for Bush that didn’t vote for him the first time around and a number of people who voted for him would switch their vote to Kerry. Also, given the attitudes towards Republicans coming into 2000 there was no reason to believe that the Vice President wouldn’t get a promotion.

    I believe that a Democratic victory is more likely than not… but I also thought that Kerry was going to win in 2004 and as both Kerry and Gore prove the nominee matters regardless of partisan mood.

    Comment by R. Alex — Tuesday, January 15, 2008 @ 10:11 am

  4. The thing is, however, that I think that the anti-GOP mood is far more prevalent than it was in 2004. In 2004 the Reps were really good at turning out their voters, I am not sure a similar feat is possible this year. Plus, Bush was an incumbent president, which is usually helpful (and I think it was in 2004).

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Tuesday, January 15, 2008 @ 11:16 am

  5. The anti-GOP sentiment does not appear to be having a great effect on the presidential race, however. Looking at head-to-head, McCain is ahead of the Democrats and Huckabee is competitive. It’ll be a long, long time before the Republicans have the keys to both houses and the presidency again, but I’m not convinced that the public is enthusiastic about handing the keys over to the Democrats.

    Right now I’d put the likelihood of a Dem president at 60% or so. More likely than not, but far from assured. That percentage would be a lot higher if I thought Romney might get the nomination, though.

    Comment by R. Alex — Tuesday, January 15, 2008 @ 11:39 am

  6. I must confess that I don’t put much stock in national head-to-head polls at the moment.

    And really, I don’t expect a popular vote blowout, but I do think that the Dems will almost certainly have a comfortable EC win. Again: a shift in turnout in Ohio alone likely would do it.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Tuesday, January 15, 2008 @ 11:44 am

  7. The GOP Primaries: Do they matter?

    Steven Taylor doesn't seem to think so: … even given the caveat that the election is just shy of 10 months away and that a lot can change in that period of time, it is difficult to see a Republican being inaugurated in January of 2009. Put it th…

    Trackback by Punditry — Tuesday, January 15, 2008 @ 6:47 pm

  8. [...] the notion that it is difficult to see a Republican winning in November (as I argued last week). Sphere: Related ContentIssues, btw, that really aren’t being addressed in the current primary process.[↩]Indeed, look at the way that race and gender fissures on the Democratic side are currently being exposed [↩]Given their seeming inability to recapture Congress and their inability to nominate inspiring presidential candidates and so forth [↩] Filed under: US Politics, 2008 Campaign | | [...]

    Pingback by PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » GOP Voters and “None of the Above”? — Monday, January 21, 2008 @ 10:05 am

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