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Sunday, June 10, 2007
By Dr. Steven Taylor

So reports the BBC: Sarkozy party ’set for landslide’

Projections after the first round of France’s parliamentary elections suggest President Nicolas Sarkozy’s party is heading for a landslide.

Polling firms predicted that Mr Sarkozy’s centre-right UMP party would increase its majority in the lower house, the national assembly.

Analysts say a big majority would allow the new president to press ahead with his sweeping economic reforms.

Final seat totals won’t be known until next week, but here are some estimates:

Polling companies said the party could win anything between 383 and 501 of parliament’s 577 seats, compared to its 359 at present.

I must say, 501 seems shockingly unlikely.

And this answers my question about the second round from my post this morning:

If candidates do not win more than 50% of the vote, with at least a 25% turnout, the constituency must vote again on 17 June.

Most will go to a second round, held between all those who scored 12.5% or more of the registered vote in round one.

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  1. In most of the history of the Fifth Republic (i.e. since 1958), most districts have had only two candidates in the runoff. This started to break down a bit more recently as the two-bloc pattern of party competition was challenged by Le Pen’s National Front. But usually the runoff is between the top-scoring first-round right-wing and left-wing candidate.

    Comment by MSS — Sunday, June 10, 2007 @ 4:13 pm

  2. By the way, with the collapse of the center, and the demise of the Communists, 501 is hardly out of range for this electoral system. By that I mean that in a larger number of districts than ever before, the choice will be Gaullist vs. Socialist, and the presidential result suggests that there are relatively few districts where it would be the latter. Besides, turnout will be low and the Socialists are demoralized and in disarray.

    It would be somewhat surprising if it was 501, but not shocking. The midpoint of that range of estimate would be 442, which means that the point estimate is for a three-fourths majority. Even the low end of the range is almost two thirds. Remarkable, but given this electoral system and the party-system (d)evolution, not at all shocking.

    Comment by MSS — Sunday, June 10, 2007 @ 4:19 pm

  3. Intriguing.

    “Surprising” works.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, June 10, 2007 @ 4:24 pm

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