Click Here

Visit Bloomberg.com to get all the news, commentary and context you need. Content,video, alerts and podcasts. Online exclusives now available.

CATEGORIES
ARCHIVES
Look Who's Linking to PoliBlog:
3cx.org
Absinthe and Cookies
Accidental Verbosity
Admiral Quixote's Roundtable
All Day Permanent Red
All Things Jennifer
Ann Althouse
The American Mind
Arguing with signposts
Arms and influence
The Astute Blogger
Asymmeterical Information
Attaboy
augustus
B-Town Blog Boys
BabyTrollBlog
Backcountry Conservative
Balloon Juice
Bananas and Such Begging to Differ
The Bemusement Park
Benedict
Bewtween the Coasts
Betsy's Page
The Big Picture
BipolarBBSBlog
BIZBLOGGER
bLogicus
Blogs for Bush
The Blog of Daniel Sale
BoiFromTroy
Boots and Sabers
brykMantra
BushBlog
The Bully Pulpit
Cadillac Tight
Caffeinated Musing
California Yankee
Captain's Quarters
Chicago Report
Chicagoland of Confusion
Citizen Smash
Coldheartedtruth
Collected Thoughts
The Command Post
Common Sense and Wonder
Confessions Of A Political Junkie
The Conservative Philosopher
Conservative Revolution
Conservative and Right
Cranial Cavity
The Daily Lemon
Daly Thoughts
DANEgerus Weblog
Dart Frog on a Cactus
Dean's World Dear Free World
Brad DeLong
Democracy Project
DiVERSiONZ
The Disagreeable Conservative Curmudgeon
Down to the Piraeus
Drink this...
Earl's log
Earthly Passions
The Education Wonks
the evangelical outpost
exvigilare
Eye of the Storm
Feste
Filtrat
Firepower Forward
The Flying Space Monkey Chronicles
The Friendly Ghost
FringeBlog
Fruits and Votes
Functional, if not decorative
G-Blog.net
The Galvin Opinion
The Glittering Eye
Haight Speech
Half-Bakered
The Hedgehog Report
Heh. Indeed.
Hellblazer
Hennessy's View
High Desert Skeptic
The Hillary Project
History and Perceptions
Robert Holcomb
I love Jet Noise
Idlewild South
Incommunicado
Independent Thinker
Insults Unpunished
Interested-Participant
Internet Ronin
Ipse Dixit
It Can't Rain All The Time...
The Jay Blog
Jen Speaks
Joefish's Freshwater Blog
John Lemon
johnrpierce.info blog
Judicious Asininity
Jump In, The Water's Fine!
Just On The Other Side
KeepinItReal
A Knight's Blog
The Kudzu Files
LeatherPenguin
Let's Try Freedom
LibertarianJackass.com
Liberty Father
Life and Law
David Limbaugh
LittleBugler
Locke, or Demosthenes?
LostINto
Mad Minerva
Gary Manca
Mark the Pundit
Mediocre but Unexciting
memeorandum
Mental Hiccups
Miller's Time
Mind of Mog
Minorities For Bush
Mr. Hawaii
The Moderate Voice
The Modulator
Much Ado
Mungowitz End
My opinion counts
my thoughts, without the penny charge
My Word
mypetjawa
Naw
Neophyte Pundit
Neutiquam erro
New England Republican
NewsHawk Daily
neWs Round-Up
NixGuy.com
No Pundit Intended
Nobody asked me, but...
Obsidian Wings
Occam's Toothbrush
On the Fritz
On the Third Hand
One Fine Jay
Out of Context
Outside the Beltway
Suman Palit
Parablemania
Passionate America
Brian Patton
Peaktalk
Pelicanpost
Peppermint Patty
Phlegma
John Pierce
PiratesCove
Politicalman
The Politicker
The Politburo Diktat
Political Annotation
Political Blog For The Politically Incorrect
Possumblog
Power Politics
Powerpundit.com
Practical Penumbra
Priorities & Frivolities ProfessorBainbridge.com
Prof. Blogger's Pontifications
Pros and Cons
protein wisdom
PunditFilter
Pundit Heads
QandO
The Queen of All Evil
Quotes, Thoughts, and other Ramblings
Ramblings' Journal
Random Acts of Kindness
Random Nuclear Strikes
Ranting Rationalist
Read My Lips
Reagan Country
Red State Diaries
Jay Reding.com
A Republican's Blog
Resource.full
The Review
Rhett Write
Right Side of the Rainbow
Right Wingin-It
Right Wing News
Right Voices
Rightward Reasonings
riting on the wall
robwestcott
Rooftop Report
RoguePundit
The Sake of Argument
Sailor in the Desert
Scrappleface
Secular Sermons
Sha Ka Ree
Shaking Spears
She Who Will Be Obeyed!
The Skeptician
The Skewed
Slant/Point.
Slobokan's Site O' Schtuff
small dead animals
Sneakeasy's Joint
SoCal Law Blog
A Solo Dialogue
Solomonia
Some Great Reward
Southern Musings
Speed of Thought...
Spin Killer
Matthew J. Stinson
A Stitch in Haste
Stop the ACLU
The Strange Political Road Trip of Jane Q. Public
The Strata-Sphere
Stuff about
Suman Palit
SwimFinsSF
Target Centermass
Templar Pundit
The Temporal Globe
Tex the Pontificator
Texas Native
think about it...
Tiger
Tobacco Road Fogey
Toner Mishap
Tony Talks Tech
The Trimblog
Truth. Quante-fied.
Twenty First Century Republican
Unlocked Wordhoard
Use The Forks!!
Ut Humiliter Opinor
Varifrank
VietPundit
Vista On Current Events
VodkaPundit
Vox Baby
Jeff Vreeland's Blog
Wall of Sleep
Weapons of Mass Discussion
Who Knew?
The Window Manager
Winning Again!
WizBang!
WizBang Tech
The World Around You
The Yin Blog
You Big Mouth, You!
Zygote-Design
al.com - Alabama Weblogs

AJC's 2004 Election Politics Sites and Blogs
Campaign Finance
Welcome to newcounterculture.com World O' Blogs
WRKO-AM's "Political Junkies" list
Yahoo! Directory Political Weblogs
Young Elephant

Who Links Here

Thursday, June 8, 2006
Uribe’s Second Term
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 8:44 pm

Andres Oppenheimer, writing in the Miami Herald is concerned about Uribe and his second term: Biggest threat to Colombia’s Uribe: his own success

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the biggest threat to U.S.-backed Colombian President Alvaro Uribe following his landslide reelection Sunday will not be his country’s Marxist guerrillas but the temptation to seek a third term in office.

History tells us that this is not a frivolous conjecture. Uribe, who was reelected by a 40-point margin over his closest rival, will control nearly 80 percent of Congress and much of the Supreme Court. He will have a hard time resisting claims by his most fervent followers that he is ‘’el hombre indispensable'’ (the indispensable man) to get Colombia out of its historic quagmire.

Well, while I do understand the concern, I don’t think it is one that requires much angst in this case. For one thing, to try and extrapolate what Uribe may or may not be tempted to do by looking at the whole of Latin American history is poor reasoning. Colombia has never fit any of the major patterns or trends of Latin America. Further, it is questionable as to whether one can even speak with sufficient cogency about there being such prevailing trends in the region.

Second, it is a radical over-simplification to state that Uribe will have such a large amount of control in the Colombian congress. We are not talking about a single party to which Uribe and the legislators in question belong to. Uribe is an independent and the congressional seats in question come from a coalition of numerous parties which supported Uribe’s bid for re-election, but which hardly are monolithically allied with the president. Indeed, many in those parties are hoping that they, or one of their co-partisans, will be vying for the presidency in 2010.

Further, the Supreme Court has been more than willing to spurn Uribe’s requests during his first term, and I see no reason to assume that that behavior will be altered during his second.

Oppenheimer’s examples of executives who didn’t know when to quite are: Carlos Menem of Argentina, Alberto Fujimori of Peru and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. Uribe has not exhibited any behaviors to date that would suggest that any of these are cases that he is likely to emulate.

Still, I do understand the general concern:

Power clouds even the most intelligent minds. And while Uribe is one of the most down-to-earth presidents I have known — he dresses humbly, doesn’t walk as if he had swallowed a broomstick and avoids talking about himself in the third person, as if he were larger than life — he will have a hard time keeping a cool head after the latest election.

However, it seems to me that the following assessment is likely correct:

Others say that Uribe’s low-key personality, Colombia’s historically strong institutions and the emergence of a new democratic left, which will have a vocal minority in Congress, will help the country fend off authoritarian temptations.

‘’As opposed to Chávez and Bolivia’s President Evo Morales, Uribe has a good chance of avoiding a personality cult and of institutionalizing his policies,'’ says Eduardo Gamarra, head of Florida International University’s Latin American and Caribbean Center. “There are already Uribe followers in the Senate and other places who are leadership options for the future.'’

More to the point, the constitution of Colombia currently limts the president to two terms total:

ARTICULO 197. Nadie podrá ser elegido para ocupar la Presidencia de la República por más de dos períodos.

I find it highly unlikely that the Congress would be willing to amend the constitution again so as to allow three.

As such, I think that Oppenheimer is off the mark with too much concern over the notion that Uribe will be seeking a third term.

h/t: The Latin Americanist

Filed under: Colombia, 2006 Presidential Elections | |Send TrackBack

Publius Pundit - Blogging the democratic revolution linked with [...] hink he’s got an airtight rebuttal. I agree with him strongly. Read this whole thing here. Meanwhile, Mary Anastasia O’Grady had a good piece in the Wall Street Journal from last week, whi [...]

2 Comments »

  1. I definitely agree with your assessment that “Colombia has never fit any of the major patterns or trends of Latin America.” That statement alone says so many things…

    Btw, while not a promise per se, in a June 4 interview to “El Tiempo” Uribe specifically rejected such a proposed third term.

    Comment by JCG — Thursday, June 8, 2006 @ 9:22 pm

  2. […] hink he’s got an airtight rebuttal. I agree with him strongly. Read this whole thing here. Meanwhile, Mary Anastasia O’Grady had a good piece in the Wall Street Journal from last week, whi […]

    Pingback by Publius Pundit - Blogging the democratic revolution — Friday, June 9, 2006 @ 1:00 pm

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

The trackback url for this post is: http://www.poliblogger.com/wp-trackback.php?p=10106

NOTE: I will delete any TrackBacks that do not actually link and refer to this post.

Leave a comment



Take a Look At This!
Inquiries
Blogroll


Visitors Since 2/15/03
---

PoliBlog is the Host site for:

A TTLB Community


Advertisement

Marketing cars
Office Linebacker
Baseball Shopping
Business Phones
Online Banking
Advertisement


Powered by WordPress