Click Here

Visit Bloomberg.com to get all the news, commentary and context you need. Content,video, alerts and podcasts. Online exclusives now available.

CATEGORIES
ARCHIVES
Look Who's Linking to PoliBlog:
3cx.org
Absinthe and Cookies
Accidental Verbosity
Admiral Quixote's Roundtable
All Day Permanent Red
All Things Jennifer
Ann Althouse
The American Mind
Arguing with signposts
Arms and influence
The Astute Blogger
Asymmeterical Information
Attaboy
augustus
B-Town Blog Boys
BabyTrollBlog
Backcountry Conservative
Balloon Juice
Bananas and Such Begging to Differ
The Bemusement Park
Benedict
Bewtween the Coasts
Betsy's Page
The Big Picture
BipolarBBSBlog
BIZBLOGGER
bLogicus
Blogs for Bush
The Blog of Daniel Sale
BoiFromTroy
Boots and Sabers
brykMantra
BushBlog
The Bully Pulpit
Cadillac Tight
Caffeinated Musing
California Yankee
Captain's Quarters
Chicago Report
Chicagoland of Confusion
Citizen Smash
Coldheartedtruth
Collected Thoughts
The Command Post
Common Sense and Wonder
Confessions Of A Political Junkie
The Conservative Philosopher
Conservative Revolution
Conservative and Right
Cranial Cavity
The Daily Lemon
Daly Thoughts
DANEgerus Weblog
Dart Frog on a Cactus
Dean's World Dear Free World
Brad DeLong
Democracy Project
DiVERSiONZ
The Disagreeable Conservative Curmudgeon
Down to the Piraeus
Drink this...
Earl's log
Earthly Passions
The Education Wonks
the evangelical outpost
exvigilare
Eye of the Storm
Feste
Filtrat
Firepower Forward
The Flying Space Monkey Chronicles
The Friendly Ghost
FringeBlog
Fruits and Votes
Functional, if not decorative
G-Blog.net
The Galvin Opinion
The Glittering Eye
Haight Speech
Half-Bakered
The Hedgehog Report
Heh. Indeed.
Hellblazer
Hennessy's View
High Desert Skeptic
The Hillary Project
History and Perceptions
Robert Holcomb
I love Jet Noise
Idlewild South
Incommunicado
Independent Thinker
Insults Unpunished
Interested-Participant
Internet Ronin
Ipse Dixit
It Can't Rain All The Time...
The Jay Blog
Jen Speaks
Joefish's Freshwater Blog
John Lemon
johnrpierce.info blog
Judicious Asininity
Jump In, The Water's Fine!
Just On The Other Side
KeepinItReal
A Knight's Blog
The Kudzu Files
LeatherPenguin
Let's Try Freedom
LibertarianJackass.com
Liberty Father
Life and Law
David Limbaugh
LittleBugler
Locke, or Demosthenes?
LostINto
Mad Minerva
Gary Manca
Mark the Pundit
Mediocre but Unexciting
memeorandum
Mental Hiccups
Miller's Time
Mind of Mog
Minorities For Bush
Mr. Hawaii
The Moderate Voice
The Modulator
Much Ado
Mungowitz End
My opinion counts
my thoughts, without the penny charge
My Word
mypetjawa
Naw
Neophyte Pundit
Neutiquam erro
New England Republican
NewsHawk Daily
neWs Round-Up
NixGuy.com
No Pundit Intended
Nobody asked me, but...
Obsidian Wings
Occam's Toothbrush
On the Fritz
On the Third Hand
One Fine Jay
Out of Context
Outside the Beltway
Suman Palit
Parablemania
Passionate America
Brian Patton
Peaktalk
Pelicanpost
Peppermint Patty
Phlegma
John Pierce
PiratesCove
Politicalman
The Politicker
The Politburo Diktat
Political Annotation
Political Blog For The Politically Incorrect
Possumblog
Power Politics
Powerpundit.com
Practical Penumbra
Priorities & Frivolities ProfessorBainbridge.com
Prof. Blogger's Pontifications
Pros and Cons
protein wisdom
PunditFilter
Pundit Heads
QandO
The Queen of All Evil
Quotes, Thoughts, and other Ramblings
Ramblings' Journal
Random Acts of Kindness
Random Nuclear Strikes
Ranting Rationalist
Read My Lips
Reagan Country
Red State Diaries
Jay Reding.com
A Republican's Blog
Resource.full
The Review
Rhett Write
Right Side of the Rainbow
Right Wingin-It
Right Wing News
Right Voices
Rightward Reasonings
riting on the wall
robwestcott
Rooftop Report
RoguePundit
The Sake of Argument
Sailor in the Desert
Scrappleface
Secular Sermons
Sha Ka Ree
Shaking Spears
She Who Will Be Obeyed!
The Skeptician
The Skewed
Slant/Point.
Slobokan's Site O' Schtuff
small dead animals
Sneakeasy's Joint
SoCal Law Blog
A Solo Dialogue
Solomonia
Some Great Reward
Southern Musings
Speed of Thought...
Spin Killer
Matthew J. Stinson
A Stitch in Haste
Stop the ACLU
The Strange Political Road Trip of Jane Q. Public
The Strata-Sphere
Stuff about
Suman Palit
SwimFinsSF
Target Centermass
Templar Pundit
The Temporal Globe
Tex the Pontificator
Texas Native
think about it...
Tiger
Tobacco Road Fogey
Toner Mishap
Tony Talks Tech
The Trimblog
Truth. Quante-fied.
Twenty First Century Republican
Unlocked Wordhoard
Use The Forks!!
Ut Humiliter Opinor
Varifrank
VietPundit
Vista On Current Events
VodkaPundit
Vox Baby
Jeff Vreeland's Blog
Wall of Sleep
Weapons of Mass Discussion
Who Knew?
The Window Manager
Winning Again!
WizBang!
WizBang Tech
The World Around You
The Yin Blog
You Big Mouth, You!
Zygote-Design
al.com - Alabama Weblogs

AJC's 2004 Election Politics Sites and Blogs
Campaign Finance
Welcome to newcounterculture.com World O' Blogs
WRKO-AM's "Political Junkies" list
Yahoo! Directory Political Weblogs
Young Elephant

Who Links Here

Thursday, May 25, 2006
Putting Surges in Perspective
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 10:02 am

I noted the following headline in regards to this weekend’s presidential elections in Colombia (via the AP): Leftist candidate surges in Colombia, which sounded rather interesting, given the general lack of drama in the race (as the incumbent looks poised to win re-election in the first round).

At any rate, the headline is accurate, Gaviria (the aforementioned mentioned “leftist”) is surging-into a distant second:

Colombia’s democratic left, long blemished by its association with the four-decade-old guerrilla insurgency, has been invigorated by the surprise performance of Sen. Carlos Gaviria, the candidate for the Alternative Democratic Pole party, or PDA.

Unknown to half of Colombians just a few months ago, the academic and former head of Colombia’s highest court has leapfrogged past Liberal Party candidate Horacio Serpa to move into second place. Since March, polls show that support for Gaviria has tripled to 24 percent.

That is impressive, and says a lot about the current state of the once-dominant Liberal Party (not to mention the sorry state of their current candidate, and soon to be three-time loser, Horacio Serpa). However, I am not sure that “surging” into second place for the right to lose by double-digits is quite as impressive as the headline suggests. However, it will have potential long-term significance for part formation for the PDA-and Colombia needs the development of healthy new parties.

Also, it is inaccurate to associate Gavira and the PDA (or even the democratic left in general) with the guerrillas currently fighting. Further, there have been moments of electoral success of such parties in the last 15 years. However, those successes (like AD/M-19’s in the 1990 Constituent Assembly elections) have been fleeting insofar as the ability of those groups to build long-term growth has been nil. Still, if Gaviria comes in second, it will be an historical moment in Colombian electoral history-both in terms of the number of votes won by a leftist presidential candidate, but also by the fact that it will mark the first time that the top-two vote-getters were both from parties other than the Liberals and Conservatives. A third place slot for Serpa and the PL will be especially phenomenal.

It would appear that there is some substantial evolution taking place in the Colombian party system-but there won’t be any hard evidence of exactly what type of evolution until we have back-to-back legislative elections under the current rules that just went into place.

Still, it does appear that the constitutional reform that was put into place in 1991, which did effect the electoral system, set in motion the changes we are currently seeing.

Fascinating stuff, to be sure (well, to me, at least!).

Filed under: Colombia, 2006 Presidential Elections | |Send TrackBack

7 Comments »

  1. Re: “Fascinating stuff… (well, to me, at least!)”

    I find the posts on South American politics to be quite interesting. I don’t comment on them simply because I don’t consider myself qualified to do so - but please don’t assume that those posts go unread.

    Comment by LaurenceB — Thursday, May 25, 2006 @ 12:22 pm

  2. Thanks for the note!

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, May 25, 2006 @ 12:32 pm

  3. On the inability of past leftists and ex-guerrilla parties to cement a place in the party system, this one is different in several respects. None of these factors guarantees that the PDA will become a major force, but they give it a better chance than past leftist blocs:

    1. This is much more unified, encompassing, as far as I can tell, the entire spectrum of the left (other than those still at arms).

    2. The electoral system (for congress) is far more favorable than before (as was a major theme at F&V in March and early April).

    3. The traditional parties really are in disarray, as Steven notes.

    One caveat to the last point. It is true, and remarkable, as Steven indicates, that the two leading candidates will be neither Conservative nor Liberal. On the other hand, the Conservative Party endorsed Uribe, as have “new” parties that sprang from the Liberals after Uribe left that party.

    Comment by Matthew — Thursday, May 25, 2006 @ 3:01 pm

  4. I expect that the polls will be over-stating Gaviria’s support, as polling is done mainly in urban centers and the party’s support is almost all urban.

    Still, anything over 12.6% would break the previous record for a leftist presidential candidate in Colombia (Navarro, 1990). The all-time leftist record in Colombia (26%, if I recall correctly, for the National Constituent Assembly election in 1991) is probably not going to be broken, however.

    Comment by Matthew Shugart — Thursday, May 25, 2006 @ 3:12 pm

  5. I think that finally the rules and incentives created by them have undercut the benefits of staying in the PL and PC.

    Heck, the PC hasn’t fielded a presidential candidates under its own label since 1990 (Lloreda).

    Pastrana was a coalitional candidate endorsed by the PC in 1994 and 1998. Their candidate in 2002 dropped out before the elections and now they are endorsing Uribe in his second run. And Uribe is an independent who used to be a Liberal.

    I think the breakdown of the traditional parties and their reassembly is the logical extensions of the incentives in place and that the new rules have finally pushed the system over the edge that was constructed in 1991.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, May 25, 2006 @ 3:17 pm

  6. Yes, Steven, I agree with that assessment.

    One of the interesting things about the PDA is that it is not itself a product of the splits in the traditional parties-almost uniquely among the new parties. (This is also true of the Christian parties, I believe, though they are much smaller.)

    In fact, is any part of the PDA a Liberal or Conservative breakaway? I know some of the movements that joined it used to ally with the Liberals rather than other left parties (MOIR, for example), but I can’t name a part of the PDA that is a traditional-party offshoot.

    Comment by Matthew Shugart — Thursday, May 25, 2006 @ 4:00 pm

  7. I think you are correct. I have only done a very cursory analysis of the PDA Senate list, so can’t say for certain.

    It does appear that the PDA is something new in that regard-and hopefully it survives and thrives, as new actors are sorely needed.

    I won’t make any predictions as yet, however!

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, May 25, 2006 @ 5:07 pm

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

The trackback url for this post is: http://www.poliblogger.com/wp-trackback.php?p=10035

NOTE: I will delete any TrackBacks that do not actually link and refer to this post.

Leave a comment



Take a Look At This!
Inquiries
Blogroll


Visitors Since 2/15/03
---

PoliBlog is the Host site for:

A TTLB Community


Advertisement

Marketing cars
Office Linebacker
Baseball Shopping
Business Phones
Online Banking
Advertisement


Powered by WordPress