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Wednesday, November 3, 2004
Checking the Predictions
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 12:15 pm

Here’re are my predictions and the actual results:

  • I predcited in the ToM and on Birmingham radio last week that Bush would win the popular vote by 3%. The final differential: 3% (with 99% reporting)
  • The EC Prediction: 290-248 (that was giving Hawaii to Bush). The likely final total: 286-252.
  • In the ToM I stated “I will also be shocked if the much ballyhooed youth vote turns out at the levels some have been predicting.” The result: As I Expected: Youth Vote Normal.
  • In regards to overall turnout, I stated: “The ToM predicts a 55% turnout. This is 4 points higher than 2000. I think that predictions of 60%+ are highly unlikely.” In reality, it appears to have been at about 60%,-so I missed that one.
  • The Senate Predictions:

    • IL goes from R to D
    • GA goes from D to R
    • SC goes from D to R
    • OK is held for the Rs
    • NC goes from D to R
    • CO goes from R to D
    • AK is held for the Rs
    • SD goes from D to R
    • I thought LA would go to a run-off, so I missed that one.
    • I predicted that the presidential winner’s party would win Graham’s Senate seat.
    • I was wimpy in a hard number (I said 1-3 GOP pickup), so nothing to claim there.

In other predictions: James Joyner nailed the EC (he wisely avoided the whimsical Hawaii nod).

If you would like to showcase how well (or how not so well) you did with your predictions, feel free to link up. All links will be displayed as inline trackbacks at the end of the post (as long as a trackback is sent, of course).

Note: If you leave a comment with a link, it will be put in the moderated que and I will have to approve it. No need to post mulitple copies.

Update: This post is part of today’s OTB Traffic Jam.

Filed under: General | |Send TrackBack

PoliBlog: Politics is the Master Science » Election ‘04: Final Tallies linked with [...] #8211;although even as early at November 3rd it was clear that the tunrout was going to be in the 60% range (and that was higher than the 55% I had predicted). The numbers support the general [...]


  1. Nice job forecasting, especially on the local level. Thanks for your posting.

    My only forecasting claim is that I explained why President Bush would be relected exactly one year ago. My only update to that prediction was to replace his presumed opponent, Howard Dean, with John Kerry once this was determined.

    Comment by Admiral Quixote — Wednesday, November 3, 2004 @ 12:35 pm

  2. Now if you can just carry those predictions over to the picke em league…:).

    Comment by Clint — Wednesday, November 3, 2004 @ 3:36 pm

  3. Hey, I’m in first again, aren’t I?

    Comment by Steven Taylor — Wednesday, November 3, 2004 @ 4:26 pm

  4. […] #8211;although even as early at November 3rd it was clear that the tunrout was going to be in the 60% range (and that was higher than the 55% I had predicted). The numbers support the general […]

    Pingback by PoliBlog: Politics is the Master Science » Election ‘04: Final Tallies — Saturday, January 15, 2005 @ 8:30 pm

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