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Tuesday, September 21, 2004
Bush up by 4 in the Battleground Poll

By Steven Taylor @ 9:48 pm

Poll gives Bush the edge with six weeks to go

Among likely voters, 49 per cent would pick Mr Bush and 45 per cent Mr Kerry, according to the George Washington University Battleground 2004 Poll conducted from September 12-16 and released on Tuesday. Mr Bush enjoyed an advantage after the Republican national convention earlier this month but Mr Kerry suffered a five-point drop in his favourability rating from the previous month to 49 per cent. Over the same period, Mr Bush’s favourability rose from 51 per cent to 53 per cent.

“While the overall numbers still indicate a very intense, close race, the underlying data would indicate that George W. Bush has gained a strategic advantage,” said Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who helped conduct the study.

Filed under: US Politics: 2004 Campaign

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4 Comments»

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  1. Wait a sec…comparedto Gallup and CBS, the Battleground numbers show a tightening of the race…I mean it was 54-42 just last week. The underlying data from Zogby shows that Kerry is still an electoral winner at this point

    This proves nothing.

    Comment by ericl — Wednesday, September 22, 2004 @ 8:11 am

  2. Did anyone say it proved anything?

    Indeed, none of the polls prove anything…

    Comment by Steven Taylor — Wednesday, September 22, 2004 @ 8:42 am

  3. I’d even go farther to say that because the polls vary so widely, one can only get a bird’s eye view of the race from them. Basically each candidate is above 40% & below 60%.

    Comment by Eric — Wednesday, September 22, 2004 @ 10:34 am

  4. I wouldn’t go that far, as it wqould indicate that the polls are utterly meaningless. While they may not be perfect, meaningless they are not. I think right now we are seeing a battle of methodology and theory being reflected in the models the different pollsters are using. Still, to have this much variation does tell us that the race my not be as close as some are arguing.

    The main issue, of course, is the state-level numbers.

    Comment by Steven Taylor — Wednesday, September 22, 2004 @ 10:46 am

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