Click Here

Visit to get all the news, commentary and context you need. Content,video, alerts and podcasts. Online exclusives now available.

Look Who's Linking to PoliBlog:
Absinthe and Cookies
Accidental Verbosity
Admiral Quixote's Roundtable
All Day Permanent Red
All Things Jennifer
Ann Althouse
The American Mind
Arguing with signposts
Arms and influence
The Astute Blogger
Asymmeterical Information
B-Town Blog Boys
Backcountry Conservative
Balloon Juice
Bananas and Such Begging to Differ
The Bemusement Park
Bewtween the Coasts
Betsy's Page
The Big Picture
Blogs for Bush
The Blog of Daniel Sale
Boots and Sabers
The Bully Pulpit
Cadillac Tight
Caffeinated Musing
California Yankee
Captain's Quarters
Chicago Report
Chicagoland of Confusion
Citizen Smash
Collected Thoughts
The Command Post
Common Sense and Wonder
Confessions Of A Political Junkie
The Conservative Philosopher
Conservative Revolution
Conservative and Right
Cranial Cavity
The Daily Lemon
Daly Thoughts
DANEgerus Weblog
Dart Frog on a Cactus
Dean's World Dear Free World
Brad DeLong
Democracy Project
The Disagreeable Conservative Curmudgeon
Down to the Piraeus
Drink this...
Earl's log
Earthly Passions
The Education Wonks
the evangelical outpost
Eye of the Storm
Firepower Forward
The Flying Space Monkey Chronicles
The Friendly Ghost
Fruits and Votes
Functional, if not decorative
The Galvin Opinion
The Glittering Eye
Haight Speech
The Hedgehog Report
Heh. Indeed.
Hennessy's View
High Desert Skeptic
The Hillary Project
History and Perceptions
Robert Holcomb
I love Jet Noise
Idlewild South
Independent Thinker
Insults Unpunished
Internet Ronin
Ipse Dixit
It Can't Rain All The Time...
The Jay Blog
Jen Speaks
Joefish's Freshwater Blog
John Lemon blog
Judicious Asininity
Jump In, The Water's Fine!
Just On The Other Side
A Knight's Blog
The Kudzu Files
Let's Try Freedom
Liberty Father
Life and Law
David Limbaugh
Locke, or Demosthenes?
Mad Minerva
Gary Manca
Mark the Pundit
Mediocre but Unexciting
Mental Hiccups
Miller's Time
Mind of Mog
Minorities For Bush
Mr. Hawaii
The Moderate Voice
The Modulator
Much Ado
Mungowitz End
My opinion counts
my thoughts, without the penny charge
My Word
Neophyte Pundit
Neutiquam erro
New England Republican
NewsHawk Daily
neWs Round-Up
No Pundit Intended
Nobody asked me, but...
Obsidian Wings
Occam's Toothbrush
On the Fritz
On the Third Hand
One Fine Jay
Out of Context
Outside the Beltway
Suman Palit
Passionate America
Brian Patton
Peppermint Patty
John Pierce
The Politicker
The Politburo Diktat
Political Annotation
Political Blog For The Politically Incorrect
Power Politics
Practical Penumbra
Priorities & Frivolities
Prof. Blogger's Pontifications
Pros and Cons
protein wisdom
Pundit Heads
The Queen of All Evil
Quotes, Thoughts, and other Ramblings
Ramblings' Journal
Random Acts of Kindness
Random Nuclear Strikes
Ranting Rationalist
Read My Lips
Reagan Country
Red State Diaries
A Republican's Blog
The Review
Rhett Write
Right Side of the Rainbow
Right Wingin-It
Right Wing News
Right Voices
Rightward Reasonings
riting on the wall
Rooftop Report
The Sake of Argument
Sailor in the Desert
Secular Sermons
Sha Ka Ree
Shaking Spears
She Who Will Be Obeyed!
The Skeptician
The Skewed
Slobokan's Site O' Schtuff
small dead animals
Sneakeasy's Joint
SoCal Law Blog
A Solo Dialogue
Some Great Reward
Southern Musings
Speed of Thought...
Spin Killer
Matthew J. Stinson
A Stitch in Haste
Stop the ACLU
The Strange Political Road Trip of Jane Q. Public
The Strata-Sphere
Stuff about
Suman Palit
Target Centermass
Templar Pundit
The Temporal Globe
Tex the Pontificator
Texas Native
think about it...
Tobacco Road Fogey
Toner Mishap
Tony Talks Tech
The Trimblog
Truth. Quante-fied.
Twenty First Century Republican
Unlocked Wordhoard
Use The Forks!!
Ut Humiliter Opinor
Vista On Current Events
Vox Baby
Jeff Vreeland's Blog
Wall of Sleep
Weapons of Mass Discussion
Who Knew?
The Window Manager
Winning Again!
WizBang Tech
The World Around You
The Yin Blog
You Big Mouth, You!
Zygote-Design - Alabama Weblogs

AJC's 2004 Election Politics Sites and Blogs
Campaign Finance
Welcome to World O' Blogs
WRKO-AM's "Political Junkies" list
Yahoo! Directory Political Weblogs
Young Elephant

Who Links Here

Sunday, August 6, 2006
The Mexican partial recount
By Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) @ 10:34 am

Chris has the time-zone advantage on me this morning, and already posted about the Mexican recount ruling (and I was much too lazy to do anything last night when it was on the Televisa news). But here is a bit more about the procedural aspects of the ruling, adpated from a planting at Fruits and Votes.

The Mexican federal Electoral Tribunal (known as the TEPJF)-the independent court of last resort in election disputes-ordered a partial recount of the presidential ballots. The seven magistrates unanimously rejected the calls of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who trailed by about half a percent in the preliminary count, for a recount of all ballots. López Obrador, in turn, rejected the ruling and promises to continue civil disobedience (as is the focus of Chris’s post).

The Tribunal’s order calls for the re-opening of ballots boxes from 11,839 polling places (about 9% of the total) where arithmetic errors have been found in the count reports filed with the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) on election night.

See also the LA Times story, which includes some discussion of the background of election procedures in Mexico. For example:

Recounts must be based on evidence specific to a poll station, said Justice Alfonsina Navarro, not broad suspicion.

Chief Magistrate Leonel Castillo, arguing against a full recount, said Mexicans had already counted the vote in a system that gives ordinary citizens the job of running the national election.

Mexican polling stations are operated by trained volunteers, and the votes are counted in front of political party representatives before the results are marked on tally sheets and the ballot boxes sealed.

“They are citizens — not permanent members of state institutions — who are chosen randomly among their own neighbors to count the votes,” Castillo said during a nationally televised broadcast of Saturday’s session. “They verify, instant by instant, step by step, moment by moment. They’re the witnesses.”

The partial recount will start Wednesday and last about five days. If substantial discrepancies are found, then the Tribunal will have to make a further decision as to whether to allow a more complete recount or annul the election. If the partial recount does not turn up serious errors in this sample, then the Tribunal will certify the election, which it must do by 8 6 September in order for the apparent victory of Felipe Calderón to be official.

Finally, I want to add a coda regarding Chris’s post, at the end of which he said:

López Obrador could easily do much to “restore faith” in the system by graciously accepting the partial recount and pledging to abide by the final result of that recount, much as Al Gore and Richard Nixon (unlike some of their more rabid fellow partisans) accepted the outcome of the 2000 and 1960 presidential elections in the face of similar irregularities.

The Mexican result of 2006 is much more above board than the two US examples Chris refers to. I fail to see how conceding an election fraught with irregularities restores faith in a broken process. Mexico’s process, however, is not broken. As the quote I provided above notes, parties have observers at nearly all polling places; monitoring of polling places in the USA is spotty at best. The IFE is a fully independent body; in most US states, partisan local and state elected officials (sometimes even managers of presidential candidates’ campaigns) administer elections.

If a presidential election is disputed and it must be resolved by a judicial process, Mexico’s TEPJF is separate from the regular court system and its members are elected by two-thirds votes of the Senate with no presidential involvement; the US still permits election rulings to be made by the regular federal courts, including ultimately a Supreme Court whose next members will be nominated by the winner they delcare in the contest they are reviewing.

The USA has learned nothing from a history of periodic irregular, even fraudulent, presidential elections. Not just 2000 and 1960, but even as far back as 1876 and various others along the way.

We could learn a lot from our neighbor to the south.

Fortunately, we do not have a López Obrador. Unfortunately, we do not have an IFE and TEPJF, either.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (5) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here

Pros and Cons » Mexico’s clean elections faces down the usual suspects linked with [...] on our sometimes amigos south of the border of late from old friends Fruits and Votes and Poliblogger. Here’s something a bit more updated, and so is this. This is what Mexico’s democrac [...]
Fruits and Votes » Blog Archive » Mexico: Tribunal orders partial recount linked with [...] do by 6 September in order for the apparent victory of Felipe Calderón to be official. A somewhat extended version of this planting appears at PoliBlog. [...]
Saturday, August 5, 2006
Fear, uncertainty, doubt, and elections
By Chris Lawrence (guestblogger) @ 6:37 pm

As Daniel Drezner notes, Mexico’s electoral tribunal has ordered a partial recount in the country’s recent presidential election, falling short of demands by left-leaning presidential candidate Andres Manuel López Obrador for a full recount:

In Mexico City’s central Zocalo square, thousands of Mr Lopez Obrador’s supporters chanted “Vote-by-vote!” as they watched the tribunal’s session on a huge screen.

Protesters blocked the entrance to the tribunal, after the decision was announced.

“If there is no solution, there’ll be revolution,” they shouted.

Representatives of Mr Lopez Obrador walked out of the tribunal’s session in protest.

Mr Lopez Obrador has challenged the election result, saying the vote was rigged.

He has said he will not accept a partial recount, raising fears of prolonged public unrest.

What may be most disturbing about this dispute is not that López Obrador has asked for a recount, but instead his argument that a full recount is necessary to “restore faith in Mexico’s electoral system.”

Given that most Mexicans would have had more faith in the electoral system had he not made a big deal of incredibly weak evidence supporting his allegations of fraud, it seems to me that López Obrador could easily do much to “restore faith” in the system by graciously accepting the partial recount and pledging to abide by the final result of that recount, much as Al Gore and Richard Nixon (unlike some of their more rabid fellow partisans) accepted the outcome of the 2000 and 1960 presidential elections in the face of similar irregularities.

(This post also appears at Outside the Beltway.)

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (1) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here

PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » The Mexican partial recount linked with [...] of Felipe Calderón to be official. Finally, I want to add a coda regarding Chris’s post, at the end of which he said: López Obrador could easily do much to “restore faith� [...]
Sunday, July 9, 2006
More on AMLO’s Rhetoric
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 11:14 am

The build on the prior post, WaPo has more details: Contender Alleges Mexico Vote Was Rigged.

First, there is the class-based rhetoric:

In a news conference before the rally, López Obrador called Calderón “an employee” of Mexico’s powerful upper classes and said a victory by his conservative opponent would be “morally impossible.”

On the one hand, this has been his basic theme in the campaign. On the other, however, such rhetoric coupled with charges of fraud, simple ratchet up the emotions of the moment, and it is unclear as to the positive end for such emotions.

Second, and more significantly, AMLO is talking about taking moves away from the established institutional routes that have been designed to deal with these kinds of difficulties in Mexico:

López Obrador added a new layer of complexity to the crisis by saying he not only would challenge the results in the country’s special elections court but also would attempt to have the election declared illegal by Mexico’s Supreme Court. That strategy presages a constitutional confrontation because according to many legal experts the special elections court is the only body that can hear election challenges.

At a minimum, it would be better if AMLO would wait until the established process is fulfilled before threatening the usage of routes that may not even be legally possible.

On the institutional process:

López Obrador wants a vote-by-vote count, which would require opening sealed vote packets from more than 130,000 polling stations. Electoral commission officials have sided with Calderón’s strategists, who argue that the law does not allow for the packets to be opened unless tally sheets attached to the packets appear to have been altered. López Obrador said that only 2,600 vote packets were opened Tuesday and Wednesday during a marathon official count, which shrank Calderón’s lead from 400,000 votes after a preliminary vote to 230,000.


The electoral institute will cede control of the election to Mexico’s special elections court, which has until Sept. 6 to decide whether to certify the results. Calderón has not waited for the elections court, and neither have world leaders. He accepted congratulatory calls on Friday from President Bush and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. But López Obrador cautioned against such formalities, saying, “Right now, there is no president-elect.”

AMLO is correct in this regard-and Calderón has to be patient. While he is taking a low-profile, he is also acting like the president-elect-something he needs to be judicious about, as legally this is not yet the case.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (2) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here
More on Mexico
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 10:51 am

Via the NYT: Leftist Predicts Unrest Without Complete Recount of Mexican Election

While the announced winner of last Sunday’s presidential election, Felipe Calderón, kept a low profile on Saturday, his leftist rival led a rally of at least 150,000 people, charged the polling had been marred by fraud and suggested there would be civil unrest without a vote-by-vote recount.

“If there is not democracy, there will be instability,” said the rival, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, at a news conference just hours before he addressed his angry and defiant supporters in Mexico City’s central plaza.

As Matthew Shugart has noted, AMLO has a political need to protest this vote, yet he also has sufficient incentives to not take this too far, as he has to be aware that he will have another shot (and a very good one) at the presidency in 2012. (For those unfamiliar with Mexican politics, the president serves a single six-year term without any chance of re-election).

Still, one would like to think that there is a better rhetorical way to deal with the closeness of the election than to start talking about fraud and unrest. It strikes me as irresponsible to cast doubt on the overall system unless one has very strong evidence to suggest such fraud exists. Further, to suggest unrest in the same speech as the strength of democracy strikes me as incompatible. Of course, to be fair, he did state the following:

“Let it be clear, ” he said. “This is a peaceful movement, and we will never fall for the provocations of our adversaries.”

I remain of the mind that this election underscores the problem with plurality elections for presidents in general, and especially in a situation in which a multi-party system exists. Matthew has suggested in a comment to a post below that he is unconvinced of the wisdom of a move to a two-round system in Mexico, partially on the predicate that it would put the PRI in the position to be a kingmaker. I assume by this he means that even if the PRI is the third-place party, they would be in the position to throw support to either the PAN or PRD in the second round. I suppose that utilizing IRV would diminish the ability of the PRI to influence the process.

I do understand, and share, the concern about anything that would enhance the PRI’s power. Still, it would seem that the problem associated with Presidents who win by bare margins and with small pluralities are more significant than a system that might enhance the influence of the PRI.

One also wonders if some sort of two-round process might not encourage new party formation, hence changing the calculus. Or, at least, adaptation of the existing parties would be expected.

Now, given that Matthew is currently co-editing a book on Mexican elections, he has thought about this issue more than I have, so I await his explanation/prescription.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (0) |Send TrackBack
Saturday, July 8, 2006
AMLO Burlesconi?
By Chris Lawrence (guestblogger) @ 8:01 pm

KC Johnson at HNN links what he characterizes as a “peculiar” op-ed column by NYU history professor Greg Grandin that concludes that centuries-old mistrust of the United States in Latin America would be ameliorated by the administration joining AMLO’s call for a recount of the Mexican election results and supporting renegotiation of NAFTA to allow Mexico to go back to protectionist agricultural policies (whether or not AMLO is eventually installed in office).

While I wouldn’t necessarily call Grandin’s assessment “peculiar,” his argument might be a bit more plausible if he could articulate either how renegotiating NAFTA or helping AMLO get into office serves the interests of the United States; indeed, U.S. meddling in Mexico’s electoral processes by calling for a recount would seem to reinforce the perception of yanqui meddling in domestic affairs, and it is unclear that the changes in NAFTA Grandin supports are favored by parties other than the PRD. Even if such demand existed, in this political climate with little substantive support for free trade agreements in the White House, getting any changes to NAFTA through the U.S. Congress would be problematic at best.

Johnson also has another critique of Grandin’s piece:

One wonders if, a few months back, the United States similarly should have avoided recognizing Romano Prodi after his razor-thin victory over Silvio Berlusconi. The reactions (and political temperaments) of Berlusconi and López Obrador seem quite alike. Both have strong authoritarian streaks; both seem to have preferred making unsubstantiated allegations of voter fraud to accepting legitimate, if heartbreakingly narrow, defeats. But somehow I doubt that Grandin was in Berlusconi’s camp a few months back.

The analogy isn’t perfect-Italy being a parliamentary democracy, while Mexico being presidential-and AMLO’s alleged authoritarianism to this point has been latent rather than manifest (unlike Berlusconi’s), but allegations of fraud are the first refuge of political scoundrels-whether or not they are ever borne out by evidence.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (4) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here
Thursday, July 6, 2006
Counts, recounts, and the Mexican election
By Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) @ 6:53 pm

I feel bad that Steven had to interrupt his vacation (or rather his post-Magic Kingdom recovery vacation-within-a-vacation) to report on Mexico, all because his guest-blogging election-watcher was temporarily off line. The following is a much abridged version of a more detailed planting (with graphs) at Fruits & Votes.

We now have multiple pieces of evidence that Calderón won in a squeaker: Most of the exit polls (though none were released on election night), the IFE’s own “quick count” sample on election night, the preliminary summation of district-level polling reports (the PREP), and now the official result.

This does not mean that Calderón is the President-Elect of Mexico, however. Under Mexican law, López Obrador (”AMLO”) has a right to bring evidence of fraud to the TRIFE, which is the high court for election appeals. (Mexico has the very good sense, unlike its neighbor to the north, not only to have an independent professional election-administration agency, the IFE, but also to separate the process of election-dispute adjudication from the regular court system.) The TRIFE has invalidated elections before, although never a presidential election.

AMLO alleges irregularities, and that is his right. If he has a case, the TRIFE can impose a remedy. Democracy can wait. It is better to get it right than to rush to stop legal challenges and possibly install the wrong candidate, as has happened elsewhere in the very recent past (as indeed in Mexico in 1988, probably, in the “pr-IFE” days).

It is worth noting that to call the count that took place on 5 July and through to the early morning hours today a “recount” is actually a misnomer. True, in the literal sense that the ballots were individually tallied on election night to produce polling-place reports (actas), and that these actas were then reviewed and some ballot boxes reopened and counted again, it was a “recount.”

However, it was not a recount in the sense that that term is understood in the USA. It was legally mandated and was the only official count. All that preceded it was preliminary. In US states, on the other hand, a recount is a procedure that a trailing candidate is entitled to demand in a close result after the official certification of a final result. Mexico’s “recount” was the official final result, and now the process of contesting (and perhaps obtaining from the TRIFE a full recount) begins.

AMLO has called a demonstration in Mexico City’s Zócalo (central square) for Saturday to press his demands for a recount “voto por voto.” Manuel Camacho Solís, one of AMLO’s top campaign officials, denies that the PRD seeks to anull the election (as the PAN has been charging).

I am not in the business of making predictions, but I suspect that AMLO “has” to do this-given his and his party’s history and the closeness of an election that he had been expected to win until polls tightened this spring-but that he has a weak case legally and little stomach for a major fight in the streets. Public opinion is likely to turn against him and the party if they press the matter too far, much as public opinion turned decisively towards him when the Fox Administration (through Fox’s originally expected successor as PAN candidate, then-Minister of the Interior Santiago Creel) and the PRI tried to have him barred from running over an alleged incident of corruption in AMLO’s administration of Mexico City. Unless the PAN has become Mexico’s new dominant party-and, with just over a third of the votes and a drop of around five percentage points compared to 2000, there is little evidence of that-the PRD stands an excellent chance of winning in 2012. It is not that far away! In the meantime, they have held on to the Mexico City mayorship in Sunday’s election. Mexico’s various states have elections on different cycles, and several are coming up where the PRD could retain or gain governorships. Additionally, the party won just under a third of the lower-chamber seats on Sunday and may well gain more in the 2009 midterm election (as opposition parties usually do). In short, unless the party’s case is much better than what it now seems, it will likely lose and return to its role as a loyal opposition, ready to fight another day.

The TRIFE has two months to review challenges and declare a winner, and its decision is final. The next president will be inaugurated in December.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (6) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here

Pros and Cons linked with Mark in Mexico on the Mexican election
Outside The Beltway | OTB linked with Calderón Wins Mexico Vote
PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » More on Mexico linked with [...] re he addressed his angry and defiant supporters in Mexico City’s central plaza. As Matthew Shugart has noted, AMLO has a political need to protest this vote, yet he also has sufficient incenti [...]
Pros and Cons » Mark in Mexico on the Mexican election linked with [...] quite wrong. And there’s more, lots more. Really. Of course, there is also Poliblogger. No Comments » No comments yet. R [...]
It’s Calderón
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 4:15 pm

According to El Universal, Felipe Calderón of the PAN will be the next President of Mexico by a margin of 0.57% of the vote: Contabiliza IFE 100% de casillas; confirma ventaja de Calderón:

Felipe Calderón obtuvo 35.88 por ciento de las preferencias; el aspirante de la coalición Por el Bien de Todos, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, 35.31 por ciento

According to another story, the PRI is acknowledging Calderón as the winner-but it would appear that AMLO is seeking a recount.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (2) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here

Pros and Cons linked with Mark in Mexico on the Mexican election
Pros and Cons » Mark in Mexico on the Mexican election linked with [...] Really. Of course, there is also Poliblogger’s excellent guest blogger, as well as il dotore Taylor himself to confirm my takes on Mexico’s bright civil prospects. [...]
Wednesday, July 5, 2006
Calderon’s lead precarious
By Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) @ 10:05 am

Remember, it’s all preliminary in Mexico’s vote count. While we were out watching fireworks, Mexico was experiencing post-electoral fireworks of its own. It turns out that Andrés Manuel López Obrador was right that up to three million votes had been excluded from the reported preliminary count.

With just over two and a half million additional votes added to the count, Felipe Calderón’s lead has shrunk to around 0.6%, or about 257,000 votes. About 1.55% of the vote has still not been included in the preliminary results.

Stay tuned here or to Fruits and Votes. The full canvass by congressional district begins today.

UPDATE: I recommend the comments about the vote count by Matt and Rici over at F&V.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (2) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here
Monday, July 3, 2006
Mexican Election Update
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 5:56 pm

With 98.26% of the actas counted, Felipe Calderón of the PAN continues to have a slight lead over Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the PRD.

Calderón (PAN) 14,009,918, 36.37%
López Obrador (PRD) 12,618,207, 35.36%

Source: El Universal - Elecciones 2006

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (0) |Send TrackBack
A Two-Round System, Anyone?
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 12:22 pm

As the post below by Matthew notes, the presidential elections in Mexico are quite close.

In such a context, may I offer some unsolicited advice to any and all future candidates, don’t do this if you want to avoid problems ( via the NYT Electoral Crisis in Mexico as Top 2 Declare Victory)

Election officials declared Sunday that they could not immediately determine a winner in the tightest presidential race in the country’s history. Minutes later, the two front runners each declared victory, setting in motion an electoral crisis.

You see, once candidates goes declaring themselves the winner, they set in motion the hardening of positions for their supporters, as each side will think that they have won. This is problematic, as it is hard to deal with losing once one thinks that one has won. Better to let the counting proceed and be patient than to facilitate that kind of problem. Further, once winners have been declared and then undeclared, the likelihood of belief in fraud and conspiracies seem to grow at a rapid rate.

One thing is for certain, these results are a very strong argument for the creation of a two round election system for future Mexican presidential contests.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (9) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here

PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » More on Mexico linked with [...] residents in general, and especially in a situation in which a multi-party system exists. Matthew has suggested in a comment to a post below that he is unconvinced of the wisdom of a m [...]
Mexico: Preliminary results
By Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) @ 10:00 am

Please note, this is all preliminary. A final count will not be known till at least Wednesday. But the IFE’s “PREP” (via the mirror site at Universal) shows the following as of around 8:00 a.m., Pacific Time today.

President, with over 96% of actas processed:

    Calderon (PAN), 36.4%
    López Obrador (PRD), 35.4
    Madrazo (PRI), 21.5

There appears to have been a lot of ticket-splitting, and the current PAN vote shares for each of the congressional chambers rests at under 34%, while the PRI is around 28% and the PRD around 29%.

Nonetheless, a correspondent who has looked at the district-level results tells me that the PAN has won substantial pluralities in both chambers. The PAN has emerged as the most national of the parties, and the electoral systems of both chambers, while having a proportional component, are quite favorable to any party that has good regional spread. (More on this at Fruits and Votes.)

These relatively disproportional features of the Chamber and Senate electoral systems used to benefit the PRI. Now, with that party in third place, it is the PAN that is benefited by the plurality features of the system for congress. The PRD is somewhat over-concentrated (dominating the capital), and while this concentration has no negative impact on it for presidency (single nationwide plurality contest), it means that even if the PRD wins the presidency (still very possible), it will face a congress with up to 40% held by its main opponent and perhaps well under a third in its own hands.

The PREP results will be taken down Monday afternoon, and then we will have to wait for the full final count. This a real test for IFE, as the PRI may have had some opportunities in rural areas to pad the count for its congressional candidates. Not all polling places are monitored by the opposition. Can the PRI pressure poll-workers? I do not know. But it is not out of the question. Presumably the PRI, if it could pull it off, would prefer the more divided government under AMLO to Calderón and a strong PAN plurality. [UPDATE: Apparently the number not monitored is very small, so the concern expressed in this paragraph may not be so valid.-MSS]

I think Mexico’s electoral institutions are up to the challenge. But this is a big test.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (1) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here

PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » A Two-Round System, Anyone? linked with [...] y 3, 2006 A Two-Round System, Anyone? By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 12:22 pm As the post below by Matthew notes, the presidential elections in Mexico are quite close. In such a context, [...]
Sunday, July 2, 2006
Mexico’s election too close to call
By Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) @ 11:28 pm

The president of the Federal Electoral Institute went on national TV to say that it was not possible from the “conteo rápido” sample to make a projection. That means their evidence says the margin might be less than 0.3%, or more precisely, the sample can’t say with confidence whether the margin is greater than that.

That means they will just have to count all the votes. What a concept. It could be 5 July before we know.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (0) |Send TrackBack
Mexican election: What the traders say
By Matthew Shugart (guestblogger) @ 2:06 pm

The Orchardist of Fruits and Votes here. Steven was kind enough to grant me access here while he is away for a few days. So, how about a non-update update on the Mexican election…

As of noon out here on the Pacific coast, PAN candidate Felipe Calderón’s share value at Trade Sports is way down, with the PRD’s AMLO clearly ahead and rising.

For whatever it might be worth…

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (0) |Send TrackBack
Election Watch: Mexico
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 9:55 am

Today Mexicans go to the polls to elect a new President, a new Congress, the Mayor of Mexico City and governors in some of the states. (Info in english here from the IFE (The Federal Election Institute) can be found here (h/t: La Profesora Abstraida).

The election itself is noteworthy in a series of noteworthy elections. The 1994 elections, the last won by the PRI (which had ruled the country for decades) were arguably the first competitive presidential elections in the country’s history. The 2000 contests brought the opposition to the presidency for the first time with the win by Vincente Fox of the PAN. (Update: as Matthew point out via e-mail, 1988 was quite competitive as well-hence the ref to electoral fraud-to help the PRI-mentioned below).

Indeed, Mexican presidential elections since 1988 have been part of a long process of change. The 1988 elections that saw a bare win for Salinas de Gortari was almost certainly the result of electoral fraud. The 1994 contests were held under international scrutiny, and likely the freest and fairest to that point in Mexican history-and that last time the PRI won.

This year neither of the top two candidates, Felipe Calderón of the PAN nor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (aka AMLO) of the PRD.

The NYT reports in the following piece Mexican Vote Hinges on Conflicted Middle Class on he issue of the dichotomy that the front running candidates represent in terms of economic policies going forward.

As the piece notes:

In general, the half dozen voters interviewed here agreed that the past six years of stability had been a welcome relief from the roller coaster ride that spanned the previous two decades. But just as they expressed fear that a sudden change in economic policies would bring crisis, they also vented frustration that the government did not do enough to help the downtrodden.

While I am not a fan of framing analysis in terms of man-on-the-street interviews, the basic theme is sound in regards to today’s contests.

Matthew Shugart provides some analysis (from a few days ago) over at Fruits and Votes. He specifically notes the effects of the electoral system on the behaviors of the parties and the way those rules will shape the outcomes. One wonders if today’s winner is by a plurality of less than 40%, as Matthew points out as a possible outcome, if there will be a move to go to a two-round system in 2012.

The BBC reports on the election here with a Q&A here.

Filed under: Latin America, Elections | Comments (6) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here

The Moderate Voice linked with Elections In Mexico: Too Close To Call
Southern Sass on Criminal Activity Today » CAII linked with [...] an choose to say it or not. For more coverage on the Mexican election results, click to: : PoliBlog, Blue Crab Boulevard and Silent Running. Darrell has an interesting article on “Mexico’s Missing [...]
Publius Pundit - Blogging the democratic revolution linked with [...] s a political scientist’s reading and some historical context about this whole thing here. A.M. Mora y Leon @ 11:00 pm | 4 comments for MEXICO’S ELECTION [...]
The Glittering Eye » Blog Archive » The Mexican presidential election linked with [...] tomorrow for other states so that they can vote. UPDATE:  Commentary on the election from Steven Taylor of Poliblog and Mathew Shugart of Fruits and Votes. This entry wa [...]
Friday, June 30, 2006
Polish Campaign Slogans
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 11:35 am

I came across this doing some research for a project I am working on (via Poland - Elections 2005 - Press Centre).

The following are official “electoral mottos” from the 2005 presidential elections.

First, there’s Janusz Korwin-Mikke, candidate of the Union of Real Politics (Unia Polityki Realnej) (who won a whopping 1.43% of the vote): “I am fed up just like you are!

Second, my personal favorite, that one would like to think loses something in the translation is from Stanisław Tymiński, an independent who won a towering 0.16% of the vote: “Let Poland be our mother and not a cruel step-mother.


Filed under: Global Politics, Elections | Comments (2) |Send TrackBack | Show Comments here
« Previous Page — Next Page »

Take a Look At This!

Visitors Since 2/15/03

PoliBlog is the Host site for:

A TTLB Community


Marketing cars
Office Linebacker
Baseball Shopping
Business Phones
Online Banking

Powered by WordPress