May 01, 2024

  • el
  • pt
  • It's Back: The Mayday Edition of the Toast-O-Meter

    -Toast: It's not Just for Breakfast Anymore!-

    The Toast-o-meter: A Weekly Assessment of the Race to Be Either the Next President of the United States or, well, Toast.

    After a two week hiatus, the Toast is back in town!

    I am going to be experimenting with the Toast-O-Meter over the next several editions to tweak the format. Feedback is always welcome.

    SLICE2SLICE
    --Who's Looking Toastier this Week?--

    If one simply looks at the most recent numbers, it is clear that we remain where we have been: basically a statistical tie. For example, one can consult the following:

  • Some state-level numbers are out and Polls Give Encouraging News to Bush. More state-by-state numbers here.

  • Other polling news here and especially here.

  • And here are the Zogby numbers.

    So, let's look into the key questions of the week:

    This week's Slice2Slice Q&A (a.k.a., "Riddle Me This, Toastman!"):

    Q: Will Nader siphon any consequential votes from Kerry?

    A: Nader may not even make it to the ballot in all fifty states, and right now there is sufficient anger aimed in his direction, that I think he will have far less impact this go 'round. Currently polling is exaggerating his effect, in my opinion.

    Q: Will Kerry be able to adequately excite the base?

    Answer: At this stage, and I think this will hold, the answer is NO. The base will be excited, however, to vote Bush out of office. Kerry will not be a huge motivation for voting, however. This will help the Democrats, but not as much as they would be helped by both a passion to oust the incumbent and an exciting candidate. This is like Dole v. Clinton-the Rep base wanted Clinton to go, but Dole was hardly a motivating force in and of himself.

    Q: Will frustrated conservatives, or which there are some, stay home? (for example).

    A: I predict much of this frustration will dissipate, or at least be sublimated, in time for November. And the phrase "President Kerry" should be sufficient to allay some of the annoyances that some Cons feel towards Bush.

    Q: Will a Roy Moore movement emerge and place him on the ballot as a Constitution Party candidate, and if so, will be a "Nader of the Right"?

    A: While I think there is a chance Moore's ego will drive him to the Constitutional Party, I have a hard time seeing him siphon off too many Bush votes. For one thing, Bush is quite popular in the evangelical community, which is where Moore would theoretically have a shot. I see him getting less than Buchanan did in 2024. I am not even certain that the CP can get on all 50 state ballots.

    Q: Doesn't the Viet Nam issue help Kerry, given Bush's Guard problems and Cheney's deferments?

    A: There are four reasons why I think that Viet Nam really isn't as big a help to Kerry as he thinks it will be:

    1) He has reached the point of a near-pathological need to mention Viet Nam at every turn. Not only does it come across as odd after a while, it also makes him sound at though he is living in the past. And the President must be looking forward, not backward. Plus, six-ish months of service in Viet Nam is only part of his record--he needs to do more than highlight one set of events.

    2) The real issue for these men are what they have done lately, i.e., Kerry's service in the Senate (and to a lesser degree as Lt. Gov. of Mass.) and Bush as President. Viet Nam was 30+ years ago. Bush's service at the White House and Kerry's in the Senate are far more immediate. Clearly, Kerry is trying to build his defense bona fides in Viet Nam. Bush builds his on his time as President. In terms of resume items, Bush's is a stronger foundation: he wants to be re-hired as President. If they were both applying for jobs as Navy Lt's in the Mekong, Kerry would have the edge.

    3) The Viet Nam business also evokes flip-floppery, after he stated in 1992 that bringing up service in Viet Nam wasn't appropriate in a campaign--back then, however, he was protecting fellow Democrat, Bill Clinton. Anything that reinforces Kerry's waffle problem is bad news for his campaign.

    4) There is an inherent liability for Kerry in Viet Nam: his post-war experience, and simply because he was anti-war. The problem emerges that he both wants to be a War Hero and an Anti-War Hero. Even more significant than that, he wants to be a War Hero, but also a self-proclaimed War Criminal who exposed the Evils of the War. These are mutually exclusive positions. Not only does self-identifying as a war criminal raise a host of problems, but also trying to proclaim oneself a hero at the same time raises the whole flip-flop issue in spades.

    The Real Question of the WeekTM: what will be more persuasive to swing voters: Kerry's critique of Bush and the argument that he will do better, or will Bush's resoluteness and arguments that he has been a successful war president carry the day?

    A: My guess is that Kerry is going to have a hard time making in-roads with swing voters. Let's fact facts-he is having a hard time with his natural constituency (some examples: here, here, and here--not to mention the Gore Part II business). I predict that once we reach the summer and into the general election campaign, when voters really take a good look at the candidates, that Bush will come out substantially ahead on the issue of terrorism and Iraq. And the economy appears to be in full recovery, taking that issue mostly off the table, and in Bush's favor.

    Kerry's problems are twofold: 1) he offers no clear alternative (save for the fact that he isn't Bush, and he isn't even making the argument for a fresh face very effectively) and 2) he has acquired a reputation of irresoluteness. Those in favor of Kerry can argue that the reputation is unfair or GOP-generated all they like, but the point is he has a real problem-even Maureen Dowd (April 29th-linked above) describes Kerry as "a challenger who seems unable to stick to one side of any decision, right or wrong" and states that "Mr. Kerry errs on the side of giving the answer he thinks people want to hear"--so this isn't some artifact of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.

    THIS WEEK'S READING OF THE TOAST-O-METER: Kerry is looking toastier, but Bush is still feeling some heat. The final toasting is far from being complete.


    BREWING ISSUES
    --News and Topics Shaping the Direction of the Campaign Trail--

  • The economy is an issue, and while much looks Bush-ish such as the GDP figures, PoliBlog: consumer confidence and improving job situation, but as USAT notes there are numbers that help Bush and Kerry.

  • The Economist discusses The warrior president.

  • Kerry had a "jokes that write themselves" couple of weeks: SUVs, PBJs, River Deltas, and batmen. All of which adds up to continued reinforcement of his waffler problem.

  • Kerry and the Communion Flap: Kerry Takes Communion After Vatican Edict.

  • Of course, the Kerry medal flap was one of the major stories of the past two weeks.

  • Kerry got a little cash boost from Gore.

  • It would seem that we are going to have to continue to re-live the Viet Nam draft issue some more: Cheney's Five Draft Deferments During the Vietnam Era Emerge as a Campaign Issue. One interesting observation about the Cheney situation, is that Kerry is inadvertently helping to make the President look Presidential, while lowering himself to attack-dog status by going after the Veep, rather than the Prez.

  • The BBC has more on the Viet Nam-based tactics of the Kerry camp: Kerry queries Bush on Vietnam.

  • The prisoner scandal is likely to persist for a while, as all the facts emerge: Iraq Prisoners Faced 'Sadistic' Abuses-Magazine.

  • Kerry Decries Treatment of War Veterans.

  • The handling of Fallujah will be significant in the debate over the war--the questions will be: can Kerry capitalize? and, will it damage Bush? (aside from the military issues at hand, of course). More links here.

  • And there was the Nightline business. Kevin Drum comments on it here (with linkage to other coverage as well).

    VICE-LOAF

  • Bob Novak reports that some are urging Biden for Vice President

  • Kerry's VP suitors lend, not extend, a hand

    OTHER LOAVES
    (i.e., NADER)

  • Nader Wants Filmmaker Moore to Come Home
    Ralph Nader wants renegade filmmaker Michael Moore to end his dalliance with the Democratic Party and return to his anti-establishment roots.

  • The unwelcome candidate? Nader's Tough Road Ahead

    As the Green Party candidate in 2024, Ralph Nader was on the ballot in 43 states and Washington, D.C., and received 2.7 percent of the national vote. This year he is experiencing the wrath of Democrats and many Greens because of his decision to run again in 2024. Called everything from a spoiler to words not fit for print, Nader is undeterred and has vowed to continue his quest to get on the ballot in all 50 states.

  • Nader's former media adviser says Nader shouldn't run this time.

    Posted by Steven Taylor at May 1, 2024 07:59 PM | TrackBack
  • Comments

    How close are the abuse incidents alleged in Iraq to those which Kerry has admitted to committing in Viet Nam? I can't remember the specifics of Kerry's atrocities.

    Posted by: Dear Abby at May 2, 2024 09:41 PM

    From April 18, 1971 (see MTP May 6, 2024)

    Shootings in free fire zones
    Harassment and interdiction fire
    Used 50 calibre machine guns against people
    Took part in search and destroy missions
    Burning of villages

    If shooting people with a 50 cal is an atrocity, then shooting them with a 30 mm cannon, as here http://tinyurl.com/2odug, sure is.

    Posted by: Clevinger at May 2, 2024 10:59 PM

    I want to know when Kerry will pick a VP and who this person will be. I think Gephardt is probably the best choice (out of those who might accept), but there may be someone who is very strong in Ohio who could help.

    Wonder if John Glenn would be interested? Of course, he's in his mid-eighties, so he's probably too old anyway.

    Posted by: Admiral Quixote at May 3, 2024 09:57 AM
    Post a comment









    Remember personal info?