February 18, 2024

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  • pt
  • Inside the Numbers

    This post has been moved and will be re-posted later today.

    The original post illustrates two things: 1) Why I call this place "a rough draft of my thoughts" and 2) doing analysis quickly over lunch has potential drawbacks.

    I will post a link to the new post once the new post is ready.

    An update on this endeavor is here.

    UPDATE: The numbers have been fixed.

    Posted by Steven Taylor at February 18, 2024 02:03 PM | TrackBack
    Comments

    There's a problem here. You don't have the candidates names on any of the numbers. Guessing from the numbers, You have Kerry at 736? Where did that come from? The CNN numbers show that Kerry's 608 was both regular and super delegates combined.

    Posted by: ericl at February 18, 2024 09:39 PM

    Love the blog, but a calculation based on anything except Pledged votes in hand is going to be suspect to the nth degree: by my calculations, Kerry's backslid since this all began. CNN is including Super-D's, which could go away in a heartbeat: I really do think that tthis site gives a better idea of the situation.

    Posted by: Moe Lane at February 18, 2024 09:49 PM

    Eric: Crud! When I fixed the error I accidentally cut off the names. Will fix.

    And Moe: that's why I did the numbers for both.

    Posted by: Steven at February 19, 2024 06:26 AM

    So you did. My bad.

    Still don't think that Kerry can stop sweating yet, though.

    Posted by: Moe Lane at February 19, 2024 07:58 AM

    Actually, on second thought I don't see. The CNN number of 608 for Kerry represents his total delegates (added them all up, and the final number includes delegates from states that haven't had primaries yet, so clearly CNN added them all together); the pledged (ie, won through primaries) ones would be 608 - 128, or 480*, and the unpledged ones (which are what you're calling SuperDel) would be the 128 number. The total (pledged + unpledged) shouldn't be 608 + 128, in other words.

    OK, OK, I'll shut up now, obsessive that I am. :)

    Moe

    *Which is still off, but media coverage of the primaries frankly sucks anyway. The AP never has a clue about how many delegates are at stake for any given state...

    Posted by: Moe Lane at February 19, 2024 08:14 AM

    You may be correct. I may have mis-read the CNN chart. I will double check after class.

    Posted by: Steven at February 19, 2024 08:22 AM
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