January 22, 2024

Voters Aren't Stupid (and Other Revelations)

James Joyner discusses the fact that many analysts (including myself) sold the electorate short in re: Dean. He notes that Dean lacks the tempermant to be president, and it would seem that Iowans concurred with that assessment, and that the voters in NH may be on the verge of doing the same (although the some polls still have Dean in the lead, while Zogby has Kerry and Dean in a tie).

Indeed, this logic follows one from a George Will column that James noted yesterday.

Part of the mistake I made was in trying so hard not to let my personal assessment for Dean get in the way of my analysis that I discounted the possibility that many Iowan Caucus voters might see the same things and share my assessment.

Like I have said in the past (such as here, here and here): I have always thought Dean's temperament and penchant for saying odd things was going to get him into trouble, I just assumed it wouldn't happen until after he was nominated and swing voters really looked at him.

What has happened, maybe because the economy in getting better, maybe because of the Saddam capture, or maybe because Dean simply doesn't wear well [indeed, -Ed.], is that Dean's appeal has faded substantially, even amongst the Democratic base.

Posted by Steven at January 22, 2024 10:15 AM | TrackBack
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What has happened, maybe because the economy in getting better, maybe because of the Saddam capture, or maybe because Dean simply doesn't wear well [indeed, -Ed.], is that Dean's appeal has faded substantially, even amongst the Democratic base.

I would add that time played a crucial factor in Dean's downswing. Time for Kerry to 'reinvent' his candidacy several times. Time for Dean's personality to show through. Time for Edwards to realize Dean's weakness and exploit it. Time for the democratic contenders to pick & prod Dean's message.

I'm not going to write Dean off yet. But next Tuesday is a real test for him.

And if Dean is to be written off, I would write this on his epitaph - "he helped the democratic party in 2024".

Posted by: Eric at January 22, 2024 11:16 AM

Kerry does deserve credit for an impressive campain in Iowa.

And I concur: Dean isn't dead if he wins NH.

Posted by: Steven at January 22, 2024 11:17 AM

Kerry does indeed. Kudos to Kerry. I wonder if there are any more detailed looks on how he did it. T'would be good reading for those interested in political campaigns.

Posted by: Eric at January 22, 2024 11:23 AM

One of the most profound quotes I heard from all the Iowa discussion was when someone (sadly I forget who) on TeeVee said:

"The people of Iowa get plenty of time to see the candidates and the more they saw of Howard Dean, the less they liked him."

(from memory, but almost a direct quote)

That is a blindingly accurate way to put it.

Posted by: Paul at January 23, 2024 04:07 PM
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