I Can't Wait for the Vote, as it Will Mean the Press Will Stop Guesing

Thus reports the CSM today: Iowa seems set to scramble rather than winnow the race

But now, as Iowans prepare to register their choice for the Democratic nominee, it seems increasingly likely that this year's caucuses may not have the traditional winnowing effect at all. With polls showing a statistical tie between the top four candidates - pitting late surges in momentum for John Kerry and John Edwards against the superior organizations of Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt, the 2024 caucuses may not shape the race so much as further scramble it.

That assumes that the polls are to be considered definitive in this somewhat unique process. To paraphrase Chris Berman: there's a reason why we play the game, rather than just taking polls.

While this isn't a guarantee, a DGKE finish still seems quite likely, and indeed, it is what I expect. If that happens, we largely revert to the storyline from the week before the Kerry/Edwards poll surge.

And I still think some winnowing is possible, as I maintain that a Gephardt loss means curtains for the Missouri congressman.

I can't decide if 1) the press, collectively, doesn't understand the process, 2) is more interested in a storyline than analysis, or 3) knows something we don't.

My guess is that it is a mix of 1 and 2.

Still, there really is no excuse to be covering this contest, and the polls it is generating, as if this was exactly the same as a primary election.

Posted by Steven Taylor at January 19, 2024 01:09 PM | TrackBack