Stephen Green, James Joyner and Chris Lawrence all weigh in on the strength of Dean’s lead. I agree that there are plausible scenarios in which Dean is derailed. However, there are a couple of factors that must be taken into consideration.
1) Bad Campaigning: None of the Other Eight are running particularly good campaigns right now, and I don’t expect that to change. Kerry, who seems to have semi-gotten on track recently, is so damaged now that he doesn’t have time to recover. And I do think that he has moved from credible to desperate and voters don’t like desperate.Lieberman is making some decent argument, but ones that will not help him in the primary. I still think that the most operative element in this Democratic electorate this year is the Bush-anger faction. Dean is the only candidate who taps into that anger.
2) The Media: One of the key significances of Iowa and New Hampshire is the way the media deal with the aftermath of those events. The news outlets are poised to report that Dean is the big winner, and while they would love some drama, they also seem locked into the “Dean is inevitable” groove at this point. Dean will win in NH, and probably by a solid margin. Unless Gephardt beats Dean handily in Iowa, the story going into February 3rd is that the “Dean Machine Rolls On”.
3) The Calendar: While South Carolina is the main beachhead for the ABD brigade, unless, as James notes, some folks pull out, there is going to be some serious vote-splitting that will help Dean. And even if candidates do pull out, their names will still be on the ballot, as the filing deadline is this month. Sharpton will take a lot of the black vote, Clark and Lieberman will split the centrist vote, and Edwards will garner some votes being the home boy. The rest will get a few votes as well. However, the “we’re mad at Bush”/anti-war vote is going to go to Dean. I can’t see anything worst than a second place finish in SC, which, as Chris noted, is something that Dean can spin as a win.
Michigan and Maine are next on the 10th, which are Dean-friendly. Although the 17th has VA and TN. Utah may or may not have caucuses on the 27th.
And even if Dean loses SC, he is well ahead in Arizona, is leading in Oklahoma, and has the geographic advantage in Vermont. I am not sure about South Dakota, and Gephardt will win Missouri. Now, if by February 4th Dean has won Iowa (or has come in a close second), NH, AZ, OK and VT, but has lost SC, SD and MO, he will still be considered the frontrunner.
4) The Rules: As Chris notes, most of the delegates are being allocated by district-level votes, where a candidates needs 15% of the vote to win the delegates from the given district. Further, each state has at-large delegates who are won based on a state-wide vote proportionally to the state-level votes of the candidates. As such, as long Dean does well in all the states in February, even if he loses some of them (even important ones), he will almost certainly come out the delegate-count winner going into March. He is the only candidate who is competitive at a high level in every state – the other are up in one state, and down in another.
So, it seems to me that the worst-case scenario for Dean going into Super Tuesday on March 2nd is to be a semi-damaged frontrunner, but still the frontrunner. The best case scenario is him winning Iowa, NH and SC plus several others, as that would paint him as the virtually untouched frontrunner.
Update: This post is part of today's BELTWAY TRAFFIC JAM.