Wishful Thinking: Interpreting the Recall, Part I

The current spin from the Democrats (Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi and Terry McAuliffe to name three) that the recall vote yesterday foreshadows a wave of “anti-incumbency” that will sweep away President Bush is a bit off the mark. While I will concede that there is some significant anger in the electorate (because of Iraq, the economy, etc.), anger which may propel Howard Dean to the Democratic Party’s nomination in 2024, the attempt to analogize a national scenario from the California example is misplaced.

First, it is impossible to discern or analyze a pattern here a pattern, as the number of elections from which one might wish to generalize is one. To make an argument for a generalized anti-incumbent sentiment in the electorate at a national level is wishful thinking, plain and simple, and the closest thing to a happy face that can be put on the recall results by the Democrats (the second place happy face is: “ha ha, now he has to fix California”).

Second, the anger in question was very directly, and specifically, aimed at Gray Davis. I agree that there is some over-simplification on the part of voters in terms of assigning blame when economies go awry, but it is clear that Davis’ 24% approval rating bespeaks of more than just a “throw the bums out” mentality, and one focused specifically on the personage of Davis. To hope that that the level of frustration can be generalized to the whole nation, and the President specifically, is to ignore the facts on the ground. Davis was held personally responsible by many, many voters for the California energy debacle; many believe he was untruthful concerning the budget deficit; the much-hated car tax is Davis’ as well, as was a long-term pattern of highly negative campaigning. Only once those factors are considered can one can add more generalized unhappiness with the California economy. Plus, can any observer of the recall campaign discount the idea that Davis had clearly lost any kind of rapport with the voters of his state?

Really, the Democratic Party (both at the state level and the national level) made a substantial strategic error by deciding to fight the recall and support Davis—the smarter thing to do would have been to have told Davis his day was done, and have found an attractive (i.e., not Cruz Bustamante) Democrat to run for Davis’ replacement. As such both McAuliffe and Art Torres (CA Dem Chair) have some blame to share for losing the Golden State’s governorship to the Republicans.

(I will comment further on the party politics of this later, specifically on what the Republicans gained and did not fain as a result of the electoral outcome).