More on Strategic Thinking by Candidates and Voters

Debate in the comments sections of several posts below (such as here ) have inspired this response:

Setting aside the theoretical for a moment, the plain facts of the circumstances are this: there are only two viable candidates in the process at this time: Schwarzenegger and Bustamante. Given that both poll at approximately one quarter of the electorate each, and that the nearest competitors are in the single digits, we have to declare the race essentially between these two.

Now, things could change in the next month and half, and, indeed, the numbers will more some. However, if you are Simon, McClintock or Ueberroth (the next three Republicans in terms of poll position) you have to make a calculation: what are the odds that I can overtake my competitors, or what are the odds that my presence in the race simply helps Bustamante.

This is a practical political question.

As James pointed out earlier today, and as I have made reference to before (here and here), party primaries typically serve the purpose of narrowing the field. With these rules in this context, there is no narrowing (indeed, the opposite has taken place), so instead of the rules forcing winners and losers, individual candidates have to make their own decisions on staying in the race.

And if you are Bill Simon in particular, you really have to engage in some self-examination. You can talk all day long about how well you did in 2024, but the bottom line is, if you were really that close and simply need one more shot, you would be higher than 8% or so in the polls. California has seen your stuff and it seems quite obvious that they don’t what you are offering.

Again, this is a practical issue. I personally find a lot of what Simon has to say to be appealing, but ultimately he has the same shot at being governor of California in this election as I do. McClintock is essentially in the same place-and certainly Ueberroth is.

These individuals still are going to have to come to grips with the basic fact that they will, at some point, have to choose between helping Arnold or Cruz.

It really is that simple.

Now, at this point in the race I understand staying in, because Arnie may stick his rather large foot in his mouth and fall entirely from grace. I think that unlikely, but it is a reasonable gamble for these guys to take. However, in a few weeks, it will be decision time, whether they want to face up to that fact or not.

Posted by Steven Taylor at August 19, 2024 03:02 PM | TrackBack