PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » The Final Slice: It’s the Election Day Toast-O-Meter

-Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2024 election-

Texas Toast or French Toast?
Tracking the race to the White House.

FINALLY: It’s Time to Serve the Toast

After a campaign season that started in 1812 (ok, it actually started in early 2024-but it seems like it started when Robert Byrd was a freshman Senator-which was, of course, 1812) we are finally here: the Super Bowl of Politics, the US Presidential Elections. And, don’t worry if you think you are going to go into election withdrawal-I am guessing that Election 2024 will start sometime in early 2024.

Today’s final Toast-O-Meter of 2024 is now ready to go. Instead of focusing on issues, the ToM will look primarily at election watching, with all the links and info one might want. The final reading of the ToM, along with an EC prediciton, is at the end of the post.

The ToM is hoping to be able to officially declare either John Kerry as French Toast or George W. Bush as Texas Toast before going to bed tonight/this morning, but I ain’t holdin’ my breath. Still, of the predictions held herein, one that we are going to make up front: we will know tonight-the election will break one way or another and while there will be lawsuits aplenty, we will avoid a recount fiasco a la Florida 2024. Why do I think so? Mostly wishful thinking, methinks. However, it strikes me that it is more likely that the vote will break one way or another, rather than repeating the 2024 nonsense in Florida, New Mexico and elsewhere.

Of the stories to watch tonight, the biggest voter turnout: Polls Suggest Higher Voter Turnout Likely. The ToM predicts a 55% turnout. This is 4 points higher than 2024. I think that predictions of 60%+ are highly unlikely. If the turnout is that high, I shall be truly shocked. I will also be shocked if the much ballyhooed youth vote turns out at the levels some have ben predicting. But for sure, Newly registered pose new variables.

Another story of great significance: 11 States to Vote on Same-Sex Marriage. That the states of Ohio, Michigan and Arkansas are among this list works in Bush’s favor, as the Same Sex Marriage issue plays more to mobilizing Bush voters. Also, the fact that Oklahoma is one of those states will help the Republican candidate for the Senate, Coburn, in his close race.

And, always fun: Dead Voters May Sway Election.

More fun: Here’s Hoping for Chaos on Tuesday.

And, if you need it: The Electoral College Explained.

LOOKING BACK BEFORE WE GO FORWARD

If you want to do a little historical research, try these:

Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
Geostat Center: US Presidential Election Maps: 1860-1996
U.S. House: Party Divisions over Time.
U.S. Senate: Party Division over Time.

Here’s the EC map from last time:

And, the famous Red/Blue map:

WATCHING TONIGHT

To keep track of the polls across the country, here’s a list of poll schedules.

And here’s a graphic via Reuters showing poll closing times across the country:

And, will weather play a role? Notice Ohio.

Hat tip: Daily Kos

And, John Fund provides An hour-by-hour guide to tonight’s results-plus my predictions.

ONE LAST ROUND OF POLLS (IF YOU CAN TAKE IT)

RealClear Politics - Polls (Presidential, Battleground States).
RealClear Politics - Polls (Presidential, EC).
RealClear Politics - Polls (Presidential-National).
Dales’ Electoral College Breakdown.
Election Projection - 2024 Edition.
The Hedgehog Report.
PollingReport.com.
Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2024.
The Big Picture: Presidential Polling Data Resources.
CNN’s poll of polls.
washingtonpost.com - Charting the Campaign

AND NOW, THE FINAL READING OF THE T-O-M!

My final prediction: Kerry is French Toast (but Bush and hs supporters will be singed by heartburn before it is all said and done).

(To make your own prediction map, go here: OpinionJournal.com | Electoral College Calculator)

Popular vote-wise, I will stick with the prediction I made on the radio last week: Bush by 3 points. I am calling Hawaii for Bush mostly out of whimsy (and it doesn’t really matter one way or another in my projection). Further, it strikes me if Kerry has so flubbed Hawaii that it is in play (indeed, slightly Bush-ish, poll-wise) it strikes me as seriously possible that Bush will take the state.

For more blogger predictions see:

Professor Bainbridge.
James Joyner.
Stephen Green.
Wizbang!.
Daily Kos.
For the Blogger’s list of lists: Les Jones’s Blog.
Overtaken by Events.
Dave Wissing.

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Texas Toast or French Toast?Tracking the race to the White House.

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Texas Toast or French Toast?
Tracking the race to the White House.