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Tuesday, November 2, 2004
The Final Slice: It’s the Election Day Toast-O-Meter
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 9:58 am


-Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2004 election-


Texas Toast or French Toast?
Tracking the race to the White House.

FINALLY: It’s Time to Serve the Toast

After a campaign season that started in 1812 (ok, it actually started in early 2003-but it seems like it started when Robert Byrd was a freshman Senator-which was, of course, 1812) we are finally here: the Super Bowl of Politics, the US Presidential Elections. And, don’t worry if you think you are going to go into election withdrawal-I am guessing that Election 2008 will start sometime in early 2005.

Today’s final Toast-O-Meter of 2004 is now ready to go. Instead of focusing on issues, the ToM will look primarily at election watching, with all the links and info one might want. The final reading of the ToM, along with an EC prediciton, is at the end of the post.

The ToM is hoping to be able to officially declare either John Kerry as French Toast or George W. Bush as Texas Toast before going to bed tonight/this morning, but I ain’t holdin’ my breath. Still, of the predictions held herein, one that we are going to make up front: we will know tonight-the election will break one way or another and while there will be lawsuits aplenty, we will avoid a recount fiasco a la Florida 2000. Why do I think so? Mostly wishful thinking, methinks. However, it strikes me that it is more likely that the vote will break one way or another, rather than repeating the 2000 nonsense in Florida, New Mexico and elsewhere.

Of the stories to watch tonight, the biggest voter turnout: Polls Suggest Higher Voter Turnout Likely. The ToM predicts a 55% turnout. This is 4 points higher than 2000. I think that predictions of 60%+ are highly unlikely. If the turnout is that high, I shall be truly shocked. I will also be shocked if the much ballyhooed youth vote turns out at the levels some have ben predicting. But for sure, Newly registered pose new variables.

Another story of great significance: 11 States to Vote on Same-Sex Marriage. That the states of Ohio, Michigan and Arkansas are among this list works in Bush’s favor, as the Same Sex Marriage issue plays more to mobilizing Bush voters. Also, the fact that Oklahoma is one of those states will help the Republican candidate for the Senate, Coburn, in his close race.

And, always fun: Dead Voters May Sway Election.

More fun: Here’s Hoping for Chaos on Tuesday.

And, if you need it: The Electoral College Explained.

LOOKING BACK BEFORE WE GO FORWARD

If you want to do a little historical research, try these:

  • Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  • Geostat Center: US Presidential Election Maps: 1860-1996
  • U.S. House: Party Divisions over Time.
  • U.S. Senate: Party Division over Time.

Here’s the EC map from last time:

And, the famous Red/Blue map:

WATCHING TONIGHT

To keep track of the polls across the country, here’s a list of poll schedules.

And here’s a graphic via Reuters showing poll closing times across the country:

And, will weather play a role? Notice Ohio.


Hat tip: Daily Kos

And, John Fund provides An hour-by-hour guide to tonight’s results-plus my predictions.

ONE LAST ROUND OF POLLS (IF YOU CAN TAKE IT)

  • RealClear Politics - Polls (Presidential, Battleground States).
  • RealClear Politics - Polls (Presidential, EC).
  • RealClear Politics - Polls (Presidential-National).
  • Dales’ Electoral College Breakdown.
  • Election Projection - 2004 Edition.
  • The Hedgehog Report.
  • PollingReport.com.
  • Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004.
  • The Big Picture: Presidential Polling Data Resources.
  • CNN’s poll of polls.
  • washingtonpost.com - Charting the Campaign

AND NOW, THE FINAL READING OF THE T-O-M!

My final prediction: Kerry is French Toast (but Bush and hs supporters will be singed by heartburn before it is all said and done).


(To make your own prediction map, go here: OpinionJournal.com | Electoral College Calculator)

Popular vote-wise, I will stick with the prediction I made on the radio last week: Bush by 3 points. I am calling Hawaii for Bush mostly out of whimsy (and it doesn’t really matter one way or another in my projection). Further, it strikes me if Kerry has so flubbed Hawaii that it is in play (indeed, slightly Bush-ish, poll-wise) it strikes me as seriously possible that Bush will take the state.

For more blogger predictions see:

  • Professor Bainbridge.
  • James Joyner.
  • Stephen Green.
  • Wizbang!.
  • Daily Kos.
  • For the Blogger’s list of lists: Les Jones’s Blog.
  • Overtaken by Events.
  • Dave Wissing.
Filed under: US Politics, 2004 Campaign | |Send TrackBack

The Jawa Report linked with New Prediction: Electoral Vote Tie!!
DCist linked with Blogger Predictions
Accidental Verbosity linked with Election Day Toast
Chicago Report linked with ***Election Report***
Chicago Report linked with ***Election Report***
The Big Picture linked with Presidential Polling Data Resources
VodkaPundit linked with French or Texas?
Outside The Beltway linked with OTB Election Prediction: Bush 286, Kerry 252
The Moderate Voice linked with Is John Kerry "French Toast?"
Overtaken by Events linked with Four Years Without Toast
Arguing with signposts... linked with The Final Slice
PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Hoisted on his own Redistricting Plan linked with [...] ent district that were added from Galveston County. I will go ahead and say it: DeLay is toast. Certainly, the current numbers don’t look good for him: In a poll for The Houston Chronicle last [...]
FreedomSight linked with [...] Kerry is French Toast? (And vote NO on A.36) That's the final prediction from the Toast-o-Meter. I'm not going to get into the business of blogging who's predicting what and by ho [...]

18 Comments »

  1. The Final Slice
    Steven Taylor has his final Toast-o-meter up….

    Trackback by Arguing with signposts... — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 10:19 am

  2. Four Years Without Toast
    The indispensable Steven Taylor has posted the Very Last Toast of the campaign. His election prediction is remarkably similar to…

    Trackback by Overtaken by Events — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 10:23 am

  3. Is John Kerry “French Toast?”
    Political Scientist Steven Taylor’s political Toast-O-Meter is up, chock full of links on election stories, election projections, etc. He is calling the race for George Bush, based on his electoral projections. Note, though, that if you do an internet…

    Trackback by The Moderate Voice — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 10:24 am

  4. OTB Election Prediction: Bush 286, Kerry 252
    The election is tomorrow (except for the nearly one fifth of the electorate who’ve already voted) and the polls aren’t any clearer than they were six months ago.

    The RealClear Politics average has it Bush 48.5%, Kerry 46.8%, Nader 0.8% (Bush +1.7…

    Trackback by Outside The Beltway — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 10:43 am

  5. French or Texas?
    Steven Taylor has the final Toast-O-Meter for your Election Day pleasure….

    Trackback by VodkaPundit — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 11:12 am

  6. I agree on the heartburn, I’ve lost a couple of pounds over this.

    Comment by Sandy P — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 11:22 am

  7. And why does IL say 7 electoral votes on your map at the top???

    Comment by Sandy P — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 11:23 am

  8. Presidential Polling Data Resources
    Back by popular demand, originally published August 6, 2004 While the polls bounce around, I’ve discovered a few sites with permanent links to consistently informative data. These pages have distinguished themselves: 1) electoral vote.com: Simply a gr…

    Trackback by The Big Picture — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 11:33 am

  9. ***Election Report***
    In the interest of honest election, please feel free to report any difficulties you had voting in the comments to this entry … we’ll also be linking to other reports … so check back regularly. 11:06 | DNC sends letter…

    Trackback by Chicago Report — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 12:08 pm

  10. But damn…take away Ohio and we’ve got a long, long night. Take away Hawaii, and it goes to Kerry. States like Iowa, Colorado, Florida, and New Mexico also interesting, of course.

    Looking at that sea of red in the map above, it’s obvious that it’s all coming down once again to the battle between the rednecks and the gringos. Odd thing is, there’s more money in the cities, and don’t we associate “Republican” with “mula”? The world’s getting weird as farmers decide that their top economic priority is tax cuts on the rich. But hey, I don’t make the rules, I just call ‘em like I see ‘em.

    Comment by hkr — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 12:08 pm

  11. ***Election Report***
    In the interest of honest election, please feel free to report any difficulties you had voting in the comments to this entry … we’ll also be linking to other reports … so check back regularly. // THIS IS THE PHP…

    Trackback by Chicago Report — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 12:53 pm

  12. ***Election Report***
    In the interest of honest election, please feel free to report any difficulties you had voting in the comments to this entry … we’ll also be linking to other reports … so check back regularly. Presidential Markets: Intrade: Bush +4.3…

    Trackback by Chicago Report — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 12:54 pm

  13. Election Day Toast
    Before I take off for the doctor’s appointment I wish I didn’t have today, one more post to link to Steven Taylor’s final Toast-O-Meter. It has a superlative roundup

    Trackback by Accidental Verbosity — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 2:03 pm

  14. Blogger Predictions
    No matter who comes out on top after the election is all over, we know who the real winner of Insanity 2004 is: the bloggers. And given that most blogs are the bastard progeny of political punditry and partisan hysteria, we figured, who better to predi…

    Trackback by DCist — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 2:32 pm

  15. New Prediction: Electoral Vote Tie!!
    Ok, call it a political-scientist’s wet dream, but I just calls it likes I sees it. The Electoral Vote will be a tie!! Something that has not happened since the election of 1800, and in that election the tie was…

    Trackback by The Jawa Report — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 4:24 pm

  16. Great information. I have linked on my site.

    I think we will do well tonight. 300 EV and 55 Senators.

    Comment by Jim Pfaff — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 5:32 pm

  17. […] Kerry is French Toast? (And vote NO on A.36)

    That’s the final prediction from the Toast-o-Meter.

    I’m not going to get into the business of blogging who’s predicting what and by ho […]

    Pingback by FreedomSight — Tuesday, November 2, 2004 @ 6:43 pm

  18. […] ent district that were added from Galveston County. I will go ahead and say it: DeLay is toast. Certainly, the current numbers don’t look good for him: In a poll for The Houston Chronicle last […]

    Pingback by PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Hoisted on his own Redistricting Plan — Thursday, January 12, 2006 @ 8:33 am

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