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Friday, October 31, 2008
By Steven L. Taylor

Via the Politico: Poll: Dead heats in 2 key swing states

Barack Obama and John McCain are evenly matched in the swing states of North Carolina and Missouri, though Obama is strongly outpacing McCain in two of those states’ crucial battleground counties, according to new Politico/InsiderAdvantage polls.

In North Carolina, Obama and McCain were tied with 48 percent of the vote. Only 3 percent of voters in the state remain undecided. In Missouri, McCain led Obama 50 percent to 47 percent, an edge that was within the margin of error.

This is good news for the McCain camp, and part of the “tightening” that I noted last night. However, the bad news for McCain is twofold. First, the very fact that these states are in play (Bush states in 2000 and 2004 and NC is a reliable GOP state) underscores the fundamental difficulties he has. Second, Obama has reasonable scenarios in which he wins handily even without Indiana and North Carolina. Mccain, however, does not.

The only GOP good news would be that if NC is, in fact, tightening substantially, that that would help Elizabeth Dole retain her Senate seat (she currently appears to be in some trouble in that regard).

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One Response to “Ties in MO and NC?”

  1. King Politics Says:

    Regarding the polls, Obama reached his red state “ceiling” awhile back. Obama might win some of these states, but not by much. It’s just inconceivable that he’ll win red states by large margins, but he can win them by a point or two. Once he went zooming past 50% in some red states, it became inevitable that his poll numbers would decline a bit. The question is, by how much will his numbers decline in states like Indiana and North Carolina.

    FYI: I’ve changed my blog to kingpolitics.com from blackpoliticalanalysis.com


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