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The Collective
Sunday, October 5, 2008
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via the Strib: Minnesota Poll: Obama leaps ahead of McCain

The poll, conducted last week among 1,084 likely voters, found that 55 percent support Obama, while 37 percent back McCain.

That’s a huge difference from the last Minnesota Poll, conducted in September, which showed the race dead even, with each candidate backed by 45 percent of likely voters.

The issue at hand in the poll is, not surprisingly, the economy.

On the one hand, Minnesota hasn’t gone Republican since 1972 and the Nixon landslide. Indeed, it was the only state to go against Reagan in his landslide of 1984.1 On the other, there was, at one point, a serious possibility that McCain could challenge Obama in Minnesota, given that the gap in 2000 was only two points (Gore won 48-46, of course Nader had 5%) and three points in 2004 (Kerry won 51-48).

Part of this is the normal shaking out of states that at one point seem to be in play, but end up not being such. However, it is also about two important dynamics in this campaign.

First, it shows (along with the Michigan retreat) that the McCain camp cannot hope to do anything other than to seek to repeat Bush’s electoral victories. As such, so much for the notion (which, really, has been dead for a while2 ) that McCain really is a Maverick in an electoral sense (i.e., that he had a real chance to appeal to moderates in some “blue” states and therefore win some of them).

Second, the gap in the Minnesota numbers above (and the already mentioned Michigan pull-out) show the way that the economic crisis is roiling through our politics, and acutely so in some states. This will not help McCain.

Sphere: Related Content

  1. The Democratic nominee that year was Minnesota native son Walter Mondale. Mondale also won DC. []
  2. That is to say, this hasn’t been McCain 2000 []
Filed under: 2008 Campaign, US Politics | |

6 Comments »

  1. Edit and then delete the comment:

    “Minnesota hasn’t gone Democratic since 1972″

    Clearly you meant to write “Republican,” Steven.

    Comment by MSS — Sunday, October 5, 2008 @ 12:39 pm

  2. Oops. Thanks for noting that and it is now fixed.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, October 5, 2008 @ 12:41 pm

  3. It looks, at one month out, as if neither candidate will realize the potential that each seemed to have earlier of appealing to demogpraphics in the other party’s usual territory, and hence shaking up the map.

    Instead, it is looking to be just as partisan as the last three presidential elections. The difference, of course, is that one party is in serious electoral trouble and so a partisan contest this time means the Democrat will turn some Republican states his way. Those are states that have been trending Dem, anyway, such as Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and Iowa.

    Comment by MSS — Sunday, October 5, 2008 @ 12:44 pm

  4. I think that that is about right.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Sunday, October 5, 2008 @ 12:50 pm

  5. [...] numbers are far more significant than the previously noted Minnesota polls. While not impossible, it is extremely difficult to envision a McCain victory if he loses [...]

    Pingback by PoliBlog (TM): A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » Poll Numbers: Ohio — Sunday, October 5, 2008 @ 5:56 pm

  6. Obama’s credentials:
    - community organizer and attorney representing acorn, a socialist group which strong-arms banks and lending institutions with threats of law suit over discrimination if they don’t approve mortgages to unqualified recipients. acorn has deep ties to fannie/freddie and the 2008 financial disaster.
    - 20+ year relationship with ayers, a convicted terrorist and community organizer
    - 20+ year relationship with rev wright, the most prejudice and dispicable person, who openly screams how much he hates the USA.

    During 2008 presidential campaign, obama constantly blames Bush and the Republicans for this financial mess when in fact Bush warned of this as early as 2001, but nobody listened. Greenspan warned of this in 2004, but nobody listened. In 2004 McCain warned of this and tried to rally Congress to pass a bill to provide more oversight over fannie/freddie, the Republicans supported the bill, the democrats, led by Dodd, Schumer, and Frank, fought it while insisting there was nothing wrong with fannie/freddie. Look up the FoxNews archives if you don’t believe this. CNN, ABC, NBC will never report this.

    Even with all these facts, the Democrats still believe obama’s lies.

    Why are Democrats so blind to all this?

    Comment by socalitman — Monday, October 6, 2008 @ 2:53 am

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