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Tuesday, April 22, 2008
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Well, well, well, they finally get to vote in PA today! Of course, as I noted yesterday, I can’t muster too much excitement about the event-and not because it isn’t important, but more because given the way the situation has evolved, I don’t think that the results will make much difference in the overall quest for the nomination as the relative distance between the two candidates in terms of the main metrics of popular votes and pledged delegates will likely shift very little. Of course, a statewide win for Clinton will give her another state to add her “big state” argument.1

There are only two outcomes that I think could substantially change the current dynamic: a surprise Obama win statewide or a massive trouncing of Obama by Clinton. Of course, neither is likely with the latter being especially improbable.

I will allow, as I have argued before, that Obama can claim something of a win, and the media will likely cover it as such, if he loses only by single-digits, and especially if he can get the margin within 5%.

At this point it would seem that we are going to see something that I don’t think we have ever witnesses in the modern primary era: a party actually using its entire nomination calender. 2

At this point we still have the following contests left (according to the NYT):

May 3: Guam
May 6: Indiana and North Carolina
May 13: West Virgina
May 20: Kentucky and Oregon
June 1: Puerto Rico
June 3: Montana and South Dakota

Sphere: Related Content

  1. The notion that while Obama has won more states, Clinton has won more of the large states (e.g., Ohio, Texas, CA, etc.). []
  2. That is, active campaigning, not just holding the events with the nominee already basically selected. []
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Filed under: 2008 Campaign, US Politics | |


  1. Didn’t the ‘68 and ‘80 Dems and ‘76 Reps use their whole nominating calendar?

    Those are the years that stick out for me as having had a meaningful primary in California (which was always in June till recent cycles).

    Comment by MSS — Tuesday, April 22, 2008 @ 2:14 pm

  2. Wasn’t 1968 before the current set of rules in terms of the primaries?

    You may be right about 76 and 80.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Tuesday, April 22, 2008 @ 6:37 pm

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