~Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2024 election~

~If Sabato can use a crystal ball, why can’t I use a toaster?~

General News, Poll, Commentary and Bloggage

• Blognetnews has a cool map by which one can navigate the Blogospheric discussion of the Super Tuesday states.
  
• CQ Politics has a video run-down of Super Tuesday.
  
• Zogby’s run-down of key Tuesday here.
  
• Charles Franklin: Super Tuesday Endgame
  
• Marc Ambinder: What The Polls Say About Feb. 5.
  
• CNN: A super guide for Super Tuesday
  
• Reuters: In White House race, it’s delegates that count
  
• Via the NYT: Republicans Battle for Votes and Money in California
  
• Lee Sigelman @ The Monkey Cage: The $$ Campaign
  
• Greg Weeks: The Latino vote
  
• OTB: California Tightening, Routs Everywhere Else
  

Checking the Bread: Movement Since the Last ToM

Gazing into the Polished Stainless Steel of the Toaster.

Los Elefantes: As we look towards Super Tuesday, it is quite clear that the race on the Democratic side is more unsettled than the Republican one. McCain enters tomorrow’s contest the clear front runner and is leading heavily in most polls. McCain has wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida while Romney only has the state of his birth (and where his father served as governor), Michigan, and handful of minor caucus states (Wyoming, Nevada and Maine) and there is no reason to suspect that that basic trend is about to reverse itself. In other words, McCain has won the states that count (save Iowa) and Romney’s wins have been second tier at best. The polls suggest that Romney can do well in California, but given that the delegates are allocated by congressional district and statewide, Romney will be unlikely to take all of the state’s delegates even if he has a stellar night. While the magic number won’t be reached tomorrow, the odds are it will be quite clear who the prohibitive favorite will be, and that will be McCain. At that point the process will become largely academic, as Romney will not be mathematically eliminated, but would find himself needing a truly miraculous turn of events to capture the nomination. The only question at that point will be: how much of his own bread will he be willing to spend in fending off his eventual toastness?

The most remarkable and fascinating aspect of the entire process on the GOP side is the ongoing debate over McCain’s conservatism. Some example of the conversation are as follows (and in most cases the comments left are more interesting than the posts in question):

• John Cole asks what makes Romney more conservative than McCain.
  
• Rachel Lucas wonders why the discussion of McCain isn’t more objective.
  
• CNN: In letter to Limbaugh, Bob Dole defends McCain
  
• OTB: Curing McCain Derangement Syndrome
  
• Crooked Timber: Liberal Senators (McCain is discussed in the comments thread)
  

   

And so forth…

It will be most interesting to see how the GOP coalition pulls itself together, as part of the party’s November hopes hinge on a vigorous Republican turnout.

Los Burros: On the Democratic side, it still appear that Clinton is in the lead, but given the usage of non winner-take-all rules in Democratic contests, coming in second could still mean a lot of delegates across the country. Indeed, in some districts in California, coming in second come mean the same number of delegates as coming in first. As such, expect no closure on the Democratic side after tomorrow.

In many ways, tomorrow is the end of the GOP contest, but for the Democrats it is the start of the final showdown.