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The Collective
Sunday, December 23, 2007
By Dr. Steven Taylor

Via the BoGlo: McCain, Obama see gains in N.H. poll

Senator John McCain of Arizona, whose bid for the Republican presidential nomination was all but dead this summer, has made a dramatic recovery in the Granite State 2 1/2 weeks before the 2008 vote, pulling within 3 percentage points of front-runner Mitt Romney, a new Boston Globe poll indicates.

McCain, the darling of New Hampshire voters in the 2000 primary, has the support of 25 percent of likely Republican voters, compared with 28 percent for Romney. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani has slid into third place, with 14 percent. A Globe poll of New Hampshire voters last month had Romney at 32 percent, Giuliani at 20 percent, and McCain at 17 percent.

When all this started, I thought that McCain would eventually be the nominee, and then it seemed like that was highly unlikely. Still, as I argued in brief the other day, I think that McCain may well be the last man standing on the GOP side when all is said and done. Part of it is that I simply have a hard time seeing any of the other candidates actually winning the nomination, aside from McCain. However, we shall see.

At a minimum, a win or second place finish for McCain in NH will propel him back into a top tier, semi-frontrunner status1.

And yes, I note the horror that Ron Paul (who gave an interesting interview on MTP this morning) is not included in the graphic (and, indeed, is not mentioned in the story). Of course, I suspect that the “Other/undecided” is probably mostly, if not all, Paul support-and he is really going to win in NH!2 In all seriousness, if one goes here, one sees that Paul is at 8% in the poll.

The entire poll can be be viewed here [PDF].

Meanwhile, Obama is promising to make the Democratic side interesting, as he is clearly giving Hillary a run for her money in NH.

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  1. and there are only semi-frontrunners in the GOP on the moment []
  2. And yes, I am being silly/sarcastic, whatever. I am actually not unsympathetic to some of what Paul says, although I consider much of it (the part I agree with, on balance) to be utter fantasy. Regardless, my digs at Paul are aimed at his supporters who continually argue that he is radically underpolled and that straw polls and fundraising numbers support the conclusion that Paul can win the nomination, which is simply unrealistic (to be kind). []
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2 Comments

  1. [...] Dr. Steven Taylor: “I think that McCain may well be the last man standing on the GOP side when all is said and done. Part of it is that I simply have a hard time seeing any of the other candidates actually winning the nomination, aside from McCain.” [...]

    Pingback by PoliGazette » It’s McCain vs. Romney — Sunday, December 23, 2007 @ 3:09 pm

  2. I get really irritated with our media (it is usually the media and not the poll itself) conflating “other” and “undecided.” They are not even remotely the same category.

    In any event, it appears the “undecided” is rather high in both parties. So a surprise could still be in store. (Note to Paul supporters: I meant the rest of us could be surprised, and I did not say “stunned.”)

    I am, of course, totally convinced that Dennis Kucinich is going to win!!

    Comment by MSS — Sunday, December 23, 2007 @ 6:41 pm

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