Click Here

Visit Bloomberg.com to get all the news, commentary and context you need. Content,video, alerts and podcasts. Online exclusives now available.

CATEGORIES
ARCHIVES
Look Who's Linking to PoliBlog:
3cx.org
Absinthe and Cookies
Accidental Verbosity
Admiral Quixote's Roundtable
All Day Permanent Red
All Things Jennifer
Ann Althouse
The American Mind
Arguing with signposts
Arms and influence
The Astute Blogger
Asymmeterical Information
Attaboy
augustus
B-Town Blog Boys
BabyTrollBlog
Backcountry Conservative
Balloon Juice
Bananas and Such Begging to Differ
The Bemusement Park
Benedict
Bewtween the Coasts
Betsy's Page
The Big Picture
BipolarBBSBlog
BIZBLOGGER
bLogicus
Blogs for Bush
The Blog of Daniel Sale
BoiFromTroy
Boots and Sabers
brykMantra
BushBlog
The Bully Pulpit
Cadillac Tight
Caffeinated Musing
California Yankee
Captain's Quarters
Chicago Report
Chicagoland of Confusion
Citizen Smash
Coldheartedtruth
Collected Thoughts
The Command Post
Common Sense and Wonder
Confessions Of A Political Junkie
The Conservative Philosopher
Conservative Revolution
Conservative and Right
Cranial Cavity
The Daily Lemon
Daly Thoughts
DANEgerus Weblog
Dart Frog on a Cactus
Dean's World Dear Free World
Brad DeLong
Democracy Project
DiVERSiONZ
The Disagreeable Conservative Curmudgeon
Down to the Piraeus
Drink this...
Earl's log
Earthly Passions
The Education Wonks
the evangelical outpost
exvigilare
Eye of the Storm
Feste
Filtrat
Firepower Forward
The Flying Space Monkey Chronicles
The Friendly Ghost
FringeBlog
Fruits and Votes
Functional, if not decorative
G-Blog.net
The Galvin Opinion
The Glittering Eye
Haight Speech
Half-Bakered
The Hedgehog Report
Heh. Indeed.
Hellblazer
Hennessy's View
High Desert Skeptic
The Hillary Project
History and Perceptions
Robert Holcomb
I love Jet Noise
Idlewild South
Incommunicado
Independent Thinker
Insults Unpunished
Interested-Participant
Internet Ronin
Ipse Dixit
It Can't Rain All The Time...
The Jay Blog
Jen Speaks
Joefish's Freshwater Blog
John Lemon
johnrpierce.info blog
Judicious Asininity
Jump In, The Water's Fine!
Just On The Other Side
KeepinItReal
A Knight's Blog
The Kudzu Files
LeatherPenguin
Let's Try Freedom
LibertarianJackass.com
Liberty Father
Life and Law
David Limbaugh
LittleBugler
Locke, or Demosthenes?
LostINto
Mad Minerva
Gary Manca
Mark the Pundit
Mediocre but Unexciting
memeorandum
Mental Hiccups
Miller's Time
Mind of Mog
Minorities For Bush
Mr. Hawaii
The Moderate Voice
The Modulator
Much Ado
Mungowitz End
My opinion counts
my thoughts, without the penny charge
My Word
mypetjawa
Naw
Neophyte Pundit
Neutiquam erro
New England Republican
NewsHawk Daily
neWs Round-Up
NixGuy.com
No Pundit Intended
Nobody asked me, but...
Obsidian Wings
Occam's Toothbrush
On the Fritz
On the Third Hand
One Fine Jay
Out of Context
Outside the Beltway
Suman Palit
Parablemania
Passionate America
Brian Patton
Peaktalk
Pelicanpost
Peppermint Patty
Phlegma
John Pierce
PiratesCove
Politicalman
The Politicker
The Politburo Diktat
Political Annotation
Political Blog For The Politically Incorrect
Possumblog
Power Politics
Powerpundit.com
Practical Penumbra
Priorities & Frivolities ProfessorBainbridge.com
Prof. Blogger's Pontifications
Pros and Cons
protein wisdom
PunditFilter
Pundit Heads
QandO
The Queen of All Evil
Quotes, Thoughts, and other Ramblings
Ramblings' Journal
Random Acts of Kindness
Random Nuclear Strikes
Ranting Rationalist
Read My Lips
Reagan Country
Red State Diaries
Jay Reding.com
A Republican's Blog
Resource.full
The Review
Rhett Write
Right Side of the Rainbow
Right Wingin-It
Right Wing News
Right Voices
Rightward Reasonings
riting on the wall
robwestcott
Rooftop Report
RoguePundit
The Sake of Argument
Sailor in the Desert
Scrappleface
Secular Sermons
Sha Ka Ree
Shaking Spears
She Who Will Be Obeyed!
The Skeptician
The Skewed
Slant/Point.
Slobokan's Site O' Schtuff
small dead animals
Sneakeasy's Joint
SoCal Law Blog
A Solo Dialogue
Solomonia
Some Great Reward
Southern Musings
Speed of Thought...
Spin Killer
Matthew J. Stinson
A Stitch in Haste
Stop the ACLU
The Strange Political Road Trip of Jane Q. Public
The Strata-Sphere
Stuff about
Suman Palit
SwimFinsSF
Target Centermass
Templar Pundit
The Temporal Globe
Tex the Pontificator
Texas Native
think about it...
Tiger
Tobacco Road Fogey
Toner Mishap
Tony Talks Tech
The Trimblog
Truth. Quante-fied.
Twenty First Century Republican
Unlocked Wordhoard
Use The Forks!!
Ut Humiliter Opinor
Varifrank
VietPundit
Vista On Current Events
VodkaPundit
Vox Baby
Jeff Vreeland's Blog
Wall of Sleep
Weapons of Mass Discussion
Who Knew?
The Window Manager
Winning Again!
WizBang!
WizBang Tech
The World Around You
The Yin Blog
You Big Mouth, You!
Zygote-Design
al.com - Alabama Weblogs

AJC's 2004 Election Politics Sites and Blogs
Campaign Finance
Welcome to newcounterculture.com World O' Blogs
WRKO-AM's "Political Junkies" list
Yahoo! Directory Political Weblogs
Young Elephant

Who Links Here

Saturday, May 20, 2006
We’ll be Flooded With Immigrants!
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 10:13 pm

There are numerous reasons why I find much of the current rhetoric on immigration to be nothing more than so much hot air (for example see here). One of them is that it seems that rational empirical analysis doesn’t seem to have much to do with the conversation.

For example, I had noted (but not comment upon at the time) a number of folks talking about the sheer numbers of immigrants that would be flooding into the US if the Senate got its way on the matter. Indeed, there was some chart that was deployed on the Senate floor showing some massive projections of the numbers going forward. I recall several references to 93 million new immigrants as a result of the legislation.

Now, part of the reason I did not comment at the time was that I did not have the time to get into the numbers, and still haven’t, but something struck me about the 93-100 million figure that was being bandied about: the current population of Mexico is only 107,449,525 (as estimated for July 2006 by the CIA). It would seem, therefore, that many of those oppossed to immigration reform are arguing that essentially the entire current population of Mexico will be moving to the US if the Senate/President’s verison of immigration policy is put into practice. That strikes me as, well, absurd.

Now, I recognize that not all immigrants come from Mexico, but let’s face facts: the current debate is primarily (if not exclusively in a practical sense) about the immigration of Mexicans. Far and away the largest subgroup of immigrants is from Mexico and and most of the 11-ish million estimated illegal aliens in the US are Mexican.

Therefore, if the current population of Mexico is around 100 million, how in the name of goodness and light can we be projecting a likely 100 million immigrants in the next 20 years of the policy?

Can you say “scaremongering”? I bet you can.

I do understand population growth, but please.

The only readily available example of the concern over the flood of immigrants is from the Heritage Foundation from a link left by a commenter: Senate Immigration Bill Would Allow 100 Million New Legal Immigrants over the Next Twenty Years.

Let’s just say I am currently quite skeptical of the “analysis.”

Filed under: US Politics, Immigration | |Send TrackBack

2 Comments »

  1. So, in ten years Mexico empties out, with everybody moving here. You know what that means? That’s right, more territory we could settle and claim for the U.S.A.

    Comment by Alan Kellogg — Sunday, May 21, 2006 @ 12:26 am

  2. I heard this the other day on the Laura Ingraham show. But, the number she was touting was not 93 million, but 193 million! Obviously, I had the same reaction you did (being a sane person who knows the population of Mexico).

    If you look at the “study” from the Heritage Foundation you can see what Laura Ingraham was talking about - according to the “study”, the worst case scenario is indeed 193 million! While the projected figure is 100 million (now revised down to 66 million after recent changes to the bill). Needless to say, these numbers are absurd.

    Here’s what the White House had to say about the Heritage Foundation estimate:

    Setting The Record Straight:

    Heritage Foundation Report Overestimates Legal Immigration Increase Under Senate Immigration Bill

    A Heritage Foundation Report Claims The Hagel-Martinez Senate Immigration Bill (S. 2611) Would Lead To An Additional 84 Million New Legal Immigrants Over 20 Years. (Robert Rector, “Senate Immigration Bill Would Allow 100 Million New Legal Immigrants Over the Next Twenty Years,” Heritage Foundation, 5/15/06, Available At: http://www.heritage.org/Research/Immigration/wm1076.cfm)

    But A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Analysis Of The Hagel-Martinez Bill Found It Would Increase The U.S. Population By 8 Million People Over The First 10 Years - A Fraction Of The Heritage Report’s Claim. CBO’s estimate is more consistent with most research on immigration issues. The Heritage Report also takes a static approach to the immigration issue, failing to adjust for any changes in immigration patterns over the next 20 years.

    The Heritage Foundation Report Overestimates The Number Of Immigrants For Three Reasons:

    1. The Report Overestimates The Number Of Illegal Immigrants Who Become Legal Immigrants And Remain In The United States Permanently.

    2. The Report Does Not Account For The Many Immigrants Who Will Later Choose To Emigrate From The United States.

    3. The Report Counts Some New Immigrants Twice - First As Guest Workers And Then Again As Green Card Holders.

    1. The Heritage Foundation Report Overestimates The Number Of Illegal Immigrants Who Would Be Legalized

    The Heritage Foundation Report Assumes That 10 Million Illegal Immigrants Would Be Legalized. (Robert Rector, “Senate Immigration Bill Would Allow 100 Million New Legal Immigrants Over the Next Twenty Years,” Heritage Foundation, 5/15/06, Available At: http://www.heritage.org/Research/Immigration/wm1076.cfm)

    But The Report Overestimates The Senate Bill’s Increase In The Number Of Illegal Immigrants Who Would Be Able To Stay Permanently In The United States.

    ¢ CBO Estimates That About 1 Million Illegal Immigrants Would Become Legal Permanent Residents (LPRs) Under Current Law - Not Because Of Hagel-Martinez.

    ¢ CBO Estimates That About One Third Of Illegal Immigrants Eligible For Legalization Under Hagel-Martinez Are Unlikely To Become Legal Permanent Residents.

    ¢ The Heritage Report Overestimates The Number Of Spouses And Children Brought Into The United States By Legalized Immigrants. The Heritage report assumes that 10 million illegal immigrants who become legalized would then bring an additional 6 million spouses and children into the United States. Since the number of legalized illegal immigrants is likely to be much smaller, however, there are likely to be fewer spouses and children.

    2. The Heritage Foundation Report Wrongly Assumes That Immigrants Will Not Leave

    The Heritage Foundation Report Does Not Account For Emigration Out Of The United States. (Robert Rector, “Senate Immigration Bill Would Allow 100 Million New Legal Immigrants Over the Next Twenty Years,” Heritage Foundation, 5/15/06, Available At: http://www.heritage.org/Research/Immigration/wm1076.cfm)

    Many Immigrants Later Emigrate From The United States - Emigration Rates May Be About 25 To 30 Percent. For instance, in estimating the fiscal impact of immigration, the National Research Council used an emigration rate of 30 percent.

    3. The Heritage Foundation Report Double Counts Some Immigrants First As Guest Workers And Then As New Legal Permanent Residents

    In Its Estimate Of New Legal Immigrants, The Heritage Foundation Adds Its Prediction Of New Guest Workers To Its Prediction Of New Green Card Holders. The Heritage Foundation report claims that the guest worker program established under Hagel-Martinez would lead to about 44.6 million new guest workers and family members. It adds together this number and its estimate of an additional 18.6 million green cards as part of its overall estimate of the number of new immigrants. (Robert Rector, “Senate Immigration Bill Would Allow 100 Million New Legal Immigrants Over the Next Twenty Years,” Heritage Foundation, 5/15/06, Available At: http://www.heritage.org/Research/Immigration/wm1076.cfm)

    But By Including Both Guest Workers And New Green Card Holders In Its Overall Estimate, The Heritage Report Counts Some New Immigrants Twice. The Heritage Foundation Report double-counts guest workers and family members who get green cards, first when they become guest workers and then a second time when they get a green card.

    Comment by LaurenceB — Sunday, May 21, 2006 @ 10:04 am

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

The trackback url for this post is: http://www.poliblogger.com/wp-trackback.php?p=10000

NOTE: I will delete any TrackBacks that do not actually link and refer to this post.

Leave a comment



Take a Look At This!
Inquiries
Blogroll


Visitors Since 2/15/03
---

PoliBlog is the Host site for:

A TTLB Community


Advertisement

Marketing cars
Office Linebacker
Baseball Shopping
Business Phones
Online Banking
Advertisement


Powered by WordPress