ARCHIVES
CATEGORIES
Look Who's Linking to PoliBlog:
3cx.org
Absinthe and Cookies
Accidental Verbosity
Admiral Quixote's Roundtable
All Day Permanent Red
All Things Jennifer
Ann Althouse
The American Mind
Arguing with signposts
The Astute Blogger
Asymmeterical Information
Attaboy
augustus
B-Town Blog Boys
BabyTrollBlog
Backcountry Conservative
Balloon Juice
Bananas and Such Begging to Differ
The Bemusement Park
Benedict
Bewtween the Coasts
Betsy's Page
The Big Picture
BipolarBBSBlog
bLogicus
Blogs for Bush
BoiFromTroy
Boots and Sabers
brykMantra
BushBlog
The Bully Pulpit
Caffeinated Musing
California Yankee
Captain's Quarters
Chicago Report
Chicagoland of Confusion
Citizen Smash
Coldheartedtruth
Collected Thoughts
The Command Post
Common Sense and Wonder
Confessions Of A Political Junkie
The Conservative Philosopher
Conservative Revolution
Conservative and Right
Cranial Cavity
The Daily Lemon
Daly Thoughts
DANEgerus Weblog
Dart Frog on a Cactus
Dean's World Dear Free World
Brad DeLong
Democracy Project
DiVERSiONZ
The Disagreeable Conservative Curmudgeon
Down to the Piraeus
Drink this...
Earl's log
Earthly Passions
The Education Wonks
the evangelical outpost
exvigilare
Eye of the Storm
Feste
Filtrat
The Flying Space Monkey Chronicles
The Friendly Ghost
FringeBlog
Functional, if not decorative
G-Blog.net
The Galvin Opinion
The Glittering Eye
Haight Speech
Half-Bakered
The Hedgehog Report
Heh. Indeed.
Hellblazer
Hennessy's View
High Desert Skeptic
History and Perceptions
Robert Holcomb
I love Jet Noise
Idlewild South
Incommunicado
Independent Thinker
Insults Unpunished
Interested-Participant
Internet Ronin
Ipse Dixit
It Can't Rain All The Time...
The Jay Blog
Jen Speaks
Joefish's Freshwater Blog
John Lemon
johnrpierce.info blog
Judicious Asininity
Just On The Other Side
The Kudzu Files
LeatherPenguin
Let's Try Freedom
LibertarianJackass.com
Liberty Father
Life and Law
David Limbaugh
LittleBugler
Locke, or Demosthenes?
LostINto
Mad Minerva
Gary Manca
Mark the Pundit
Mediocre but Unexciting
memeorandum
Mental Hiccups
Miller's Time
Mind of Mog
Minorities For Bush
Mr. Hawaii
The Moderate Voice
The Modulator
Much Ado
Mungowitz End
My opinion counts
my thoughts, without the penny charge
My Word
mypetjawa
Naw
Neophyte Pundit
Neutiquam erro
New England Republican
NewsHawk Daily
neWs Round-Up
NixGuy.com
No Pundit Intended
Nobody asked me, but...
Obsidian Wings
Occam's Toothbrush
On the Fritz
On the Third Hand
One Fine Jay
Out of Context
Outside the Beltway
Suman Palit
Parablemania
Passionate America
Brian Patton
Peaktalk
Peppermint Patty
Phlegma
John Pierce
PiratesCove
Politicalman
The Politicker
The Politburo Diktat
Political Annotation
Political Blog For The Politically Incorrect
Possumblog
Power Politics
Powerpundit.com
Practical Penumbra
Priorities & Frivolities ProfessorBainbridge.com
Prof. Blogger's Pontifications
PunditFilter
Pundit Heads
QandO
The Queen of All Evil
Quotes, Thoughts, and other Ramblings
Ramblings' Journal
Random Acts of Kindness
Random Nuclear Strikes
Ranting Rationalist
Read My Lips
Reagan Country
Jay Reding.com
A Republican's Blog
Resource.full
The Review
Right Side of the Rainbow
Right Wingin-It
Right Wing News
Right Voices
Rightward Reasonings
riting on the wall
robwestcott
Rooftop Report
RoguePundit
The Sake of Argument
Scrappleface
Secular Sermons
Sha Ka Ree
Shaking Spears
She Who Will Be Obeyed!
The Skeptician
The Skewed
Slant/Point.
Slobokan's Site O' Schtuff
small dead animals
Sneakeasy's Joint
SoCal Law Blog
A Solo Dialogue
Solomonia
Some Great Reward
Southern Musings
Speed of Thought...
Spin Killer
Matthew J. Stinson
A Stitch in Haste
The Strange Political Road Trip of Jane Q. Public
Stuff about
Suman Palit
SwimFinsSF
Target Centermass
Templar Pundit
The Temporal Globe
Tex the Pontificator
Texas Native
think about it...
Tiger
Tobacco Road Fogey
Toner Mishap
Tony Talks Tech
The Trimblog
Truth. Quante-fied.
Use The Forks!!
Varifrank
Vista On Current Events
VodkaPundit
Vox Baby
Jeff Vreeland's Blog
Wall of Sleep
Weapons of Mass Discussion
Who Knew?
The Window Manager
Winning Again!
WizBang!
WizBang Tech
The World Around You
The Yin Blog
You Big Mouth, You!
Zygote-Design
Non-Blogs Linking to PoliBlog:
al.com - Alabama Weblogs

AJC's 2004 Election Politics Sites and Blogs Campaign Finance
Welcome to newcounterculture.com World O' Blogs
Yahoo! Directory Political Weblogs
Young Elephant

Who Links Here

Friday, May 9, 2003
PoliColumn

By Steven Taylor @ 9:50 am

The following appeared in the May 8th, 2003 edition of the Birmingham Post-Herald. (One minor correction: Bush gains seven electoral votes as a result of re-apportionment, not eight as the column states).

2004 Campaign is Not the Elder Bush’s Election Cycle

Steven L. Taylor, Ph.D.

Amazingly, the 2004 presidential campaign is well underway, a mere 500-plus days from the actual election itself. A clear sign that the process is crackling along is that the nine declared candidates for the Democratic Party�s nomination assembled this weekend for the first debate of the campaign season.

A casual perusal of the news might give one a profound sense of d�j� vu: a man named George Bush is in the White House, the United States has just won a decisive military victory in Iraq, the President is enjoying high approval numbers, and a key political issue is the health of the economy. Indeed, it could very well be May, 1991, rather than May, 2003. The Democrats hope that the parallels continue to include a plunge in the popularity of the incumbent President, and his eventual defeat at the polls in November of next year.

However, there are also some substantial differences, with perhaps the most significant being that the national security issue was off the table in 1991-1992, and the issue was the economy (we all should recall the famous �It�s the Economy, Stupid� banners in the Clinton election HQ). In 1992 the Cold War was over, the Berlin Wall toppled and the Soviet Union was no more. In that context, George H. W. Bush�s strong suit, i.e., national security, was not a huge help in his electoral campaign against Bill Clinton. The forty-first President�s impressive resume, which included Director of Central Intelligence, Ambassador to China, Vice President, and victorious Commander-in-Chief in Gulf War I were all simply niceties, not the strengths they would have been in years past. From the end of World War II until the Berlin Wall fell, Americans looked to the President, whomever he was, to protect us from the threat of Soviet ICBMs. In 1992, that threat, indeed almost all international threats, seemed faint memories.

However, in the 2004 electoral cycle, this is not the case. The economy is important, as always, but national security is back, and in a big way. The events of September 11, 2001 thrust back upon the national psyche the idea that danger lurked beyond our borders. During the Cold War the threat of attack was real, but abstract�we never experienced a direct attack on our soil. Under the new War on Terror, the threat is manifestly concrete, and we fear additional violence against us. Given that President Bush has been successful in his prosecution of the War on Terror, look for that to redound to him positively at the ballot box next November. In 1991, the victory against the Iraqis was seen to be the end of a specific conflict, while in 2003, the victory against Saddam�s regime is seen as part of a wider problem, and therefore the significance of the current victory will not fade the way it did for the President�s father.

If President Bush simply wins the same states we won in 2000, he will gain eight electoral votes, due to the reallocation of congressional seats after the recent census. This is not to say that the President is a shoe-in, as the electoral math may still be tricky, considering the closeness of Florida in 2000, and the fact that both California and New York have been strong Democratic strongholds in recent elections. Democrats banking on anger related to the 2000 recount propelling a Democrat to victory in Florida need to remember that the President�s brother won re-election to the governorship in 2002 by a margin of 12.8%.

Further, instead of being an untested challenger, George W. Bush will be the sitting President�which is a formidable asset. Voters, especially independents and the apolitical will look at Mr. Bush as the Command-in-Chief who oversaw two successful wars (Afghanistan and Iraq) and compare him to a Democratic nominee likely not to have any executive experience, and little, if any, actual foreign policy experience.

Indeed, just looking at the current line-up of Democratic contenders, we see that history is not on their side. The Senators (Lieberman, Kerry and Edwards) have to deal with the fact that the last candidate to successfully make the transition from the Senate to the White House was in 1960 when John Kennedy managed the feat�and the White House was open that year, i.e., he was running against the sitting Vice President, not a sitting President. Mr. Gephardt has to deal with the fact that the last time a member of the House was elevated to the Presidency was 1880 when James Garfield won.

In short: this electoral campaign will play out quite differently than that of 1991-1992. National security will play a great role in the debate, and barring utter economic disaster, look for President Bush to enjoy a comfortable victory in 2004.

Steven L. Taylor is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Troy State University.

Filed under: My Columns

Click here to go to the main page.

1 Comment


  1. Comment by Anonymous — Tuesday, August 10, 2004 @ 11:25 am

RSS feed for these comments.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

Take a Look At This!
  • Tabloid News
  • Word of The Day
  • Chronograph Watches
  • Office Shredders
  • Cash Registers
  • Ricoh Fax Machines
  • IBM Typewriters
  • Copy Machines
  • UNIX Consulting
  • Web Design
Inquiries
Blogroll


Visitors Since 2/15/03
---

Powered by WordPress