ARCHIVES
CATEGORIES
Look Who's Linking to PoliBlog:
3cx.org
Absinthe and Cookies
Accidental Verbosity
Admiral Quixote's Roundtable
All Day Permanent Red
All Things Jennifer
Ann Althouse
The American Mind
Arguing with signposts
The Astute Blogger
Asymmeterical Information
Attaboy
augustus
B-Town Blog Boys
BabyTrollBlog
Backcountry Conservative
Balloon Juice
Bananas and Such Begging to Differ
The Bemusement Park
Bewtween the Coasts
Betsy's Page
The Big Picture
BipolarBBSBlog
bLogicus
Blogs for Bush
BoiFromTroy
Boots and Sabers
brykMantra
BushBlog
The Bully Pulpit
Caffeinated Musing
California Yankee
Captain's Quarters
Chicago Report
Chicagoland of Confusion
Citizen Smash
Coldheartedtruth
Collected Thoughts
The Command Post
Common Sense and Wonder
Confessions Of A Political Junkie
Conservative and Right
Cranial Cavity
The Daily Lemon
Daly Thoughts
DANEgerus Weblog
Dart Frog on a Cactus
Dean's World Dear Free World
Brad DeLong
Democracy Project
DiVERSiONZ
The Disagreeable Conservative Curmudgeon
Down to the Piraeus
Drink this...
Earthly Passions
The Education Wonks
the evangelical outpost
exvigilare
Eye of the Storm
Feste
Filtrat
The Flying Space Monkey Chronicles
The Friendly Ghost
FringeBlog
Functional, if not decorative
G-Blog.net
The Galvin Opinion
The Glittering Eye
Haight Speech
Half-Bakered
The Hedgehog Report
Heh. Indeed.
Hellblazer
Hennessy's View
High Desert Skeptic
Robert Holcomb
I love Jet Noise
Idlewild South
Incommunicado
Independent Thinker
Insults Unpunished
Interested-Participant
Internet Ronin
Ipse Dixit
It Can't Rain All The Time...
The Jay Blog
Jen Speaks
Joefish's Freshwater Blog
John Lemon
johnrpierce.info blog
Judicious Asininity
Just On The Other Side
The Kudzu Files
LeatherPenguin
Let's Try Freedom
LibertarianJackass.com
Liberty Father
Life and Law
David Limbaugh
LittleBugler
Locke, or Demosthenes?
LostINto
Gary Manca
Mark the Pundit
Mediocre but Unexciting
memeorandum
Mental Hiccups
Miller's Time
Mind of Mog
Minorities For Bush
Mr. Hawaii
The Moderate Voice
The Modulator
Much Ado
Mungowitz End
My opinion counts
my thoughts, without the penny charge
My Word
mypetjawa
Naw
Neophyte Pundit
New England Republican
NewsHawk Daily
neWs Round-Up
NixGuy.com
No Pundit Intended
Nobody asked me, but...
Obsidian Wings
Occam's Toothbrush
On the Fritz
On the Third Hand
One Fine Jay
Out of Context
Outside the Beltway
Suman Palit
Parablemania
Passionate America
Peaktalk
Peppermint Patty
Phlegma
John Pierce
PiratesCove
The Politicker
The Politburo Diktat
Political Annotation
Political Blog For The Politically Incorrect
Possumblog
Power Politics
Powerpundit.com
Practical Penumbra
Priorities & Frivolities ProfessorBainbridge.com
Prof. Blogger's Pontifications
PunditFilter
Pundit Heads
QandO
The Queen of All Evil
Quotes, Thoughts, and other Ramblings
Ramblings' Journal
Random Acts of Kindness
Random Nuclear Strikes
Ranting Rationalist
Read My Lips
Reagan Country
Jay Reding.com
A Republican's Blog
Resource.full
The Review
Right Side of the Rainbow
Right Wingin-It
Right Wing News
Right Voices
Rightward Reasonings
riting on the wall
robwestcott
Rooftop Report
The Sake of Argument
Scrappleface
Secular Sermons
Sha Ka Ree
Shaking Spears
She Who Will Be Obeyed!
The Skeptician
The Skewed
Slant/Point.
small dead animals
Sneakeasy's Joint
SoCal Law Blog
A Solo Dialogue
Solomonia
Some Great Reward
Southern Musings
Speed of Thought...
Spin Killer
Matthew J. Stinson
The Strange Political Road Trip of Jane Q. Public
Stuff about
SwimFinsSF
Target Centermass
Templar Pundit
The Temporal Globe
Tex the Pontificator
Texas Native
think about it...
Tiger
Tobacco Road Fogey
Tony Talks Tech
The Trimblog
Use The Forks!!
Varifrank
VodkaPundit
Wall of Sleep
Weapons of Mass Discussion
Who Knew?
The Window Manager
Winning Again!
WizBang!
WizBang Tech
The World Around You
The Yin Blog
You Big Mouth, You!
Zygote-Design
Non-Blogs Linking to PoliBlog:
al.com - Alabama Weblogs

AJC's 2004 Election Politics Sites and Blogs Campaign Finance
Welcome to newcounterculture.com World O' Blogs
Yahoo! Directory Political Weblogs
Young Elephant

Who Links Here

Thursday, October 21, 2004
The Toast-O-Meter Returns!

By Steven Taylor @ 8:58 pm


-Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2004 election-


Texas Toast or French Toast?
Tracking the race to the White House.

After a multi-week hiatus (indeed, just over a month), the Toast-O-Meter is back. The goal from here on out is to have two more 2004 Toast-O-Meters: one next week and then the Final Toast on Election Day.

With less than two weeks left in the contest, both candidates are feeling the heat, but with neither clearly qualifying as toast at this point in time.

The weakness of the Kerry candidacies continues to be manifest: despite the clear vulnerability on the part of the President, Kerry has yet to seal the deal. The fact that his campaign has long lacked a clear theme (“We’ll Do Better” isn’t a theme, it’s a platitude at best) has clearly made it difficult for voters to be drawn to his cause. And while it perhaps oughtn’t to matter, his personality doesn’t help his cause.

A clear indication of his lack of theme is his constant shifts of focus on the campaign trail. The latest examples: social security and the flu vaccine. Neither of these issues were on the edge of the radar a few weeks back, but Kerry is willing to shift at a moment’s notice to whatever vulnerabilities he perceives at the moment, only to drop them when the news cycle gets tired of the tale. Now, on the one hand, this is smart politics, if one has something else that is foundational in one’s campaign. If the strategy is simply to hope for some bad news to exploit this week, then the thinness of one’s platform becomes rather obvious.

Of course, this is the candidate who, in his convention bio film, started his reason for running for president was that he was “frustrated”. (And they say Poppy had a problem with the “vision thing”). Indeed, the strategy for Kerry all along seems to have been a resume-driven one (a la Bob Dole) rather than one based on a specific vision for the country. Of course in Kerry’s case resume means Viet Nam and a lengthy, but somewhat hollow Senate career. The most noteworthy elements in his biography are his four and half months on the swift votes and his post-war protests (and the latter is more prominent than the former). For a wholly analytical viewpoint, the weaknesses he brings to campaign are pretty clear.

I note this because it is equally clear that Bush is a beatable incumbent. However, the combination of Kerry’s personality (which is not endearing), his lack of philosophical clarity and vision both linked to his problematic biography have made it difficult for Kerry to capitalize on the President’s position.

As such, I predict that Bush will win, but narrowly. The main fear that I have is that the lawyers will cause a boatload of problems before the winner is declared (to the detriment of our democracy).

This week’s reading of the Toast-O-Meter has Bush slightly ahead, as the general poll situation favors him slightly, and for the above-mentioned weaknesses on Kerry’s part. Kerry scores some Wonder Bread for being able to use the debate (specifically the first one) to quell doubts that had been growing about his candidacy. Bush gets the edge because despite the tight polling, Bush still has commanding leads in multiple polls on the terrorism question, which I still maintain will be the issue that turns this election.

Kerry also gets some flames for his inconsistency and his Mary Cheney gaffe. Bush gets some heat over his debate performance-wherein he could’ve landed some serious hurt on Kerry, but instead let his opponent capitalize on the event.

BREWING ISSUES

(Of course, some of these have been on the heat so long, they taste more like burnt coffee than freshly brewed)

  • SECURITY

    • Bush Says Kerry Doesn’t Understand Terror War

    • Kerry Mocks Bush War Leadership
    • Bush Vs. Kerry: Tackling the Threat of Nuclear War
    • In Bush’s Vision, a Mission to Spread Power of Liberty [RSS]

    • Voters in 10 States Likely to Ban Gay Marriages. This could matter because it could boost conservative turn-out in states like Michigan.
    • Divergent Views of Iraq Defining Election

  • A TOUCH OF THE INFLUENZA

    • This flu vaccine thing has become something of an issue. While I understand the basic issue, I am quite unclear as to precisely why it would be the job of the President of the United States to gurantee that everyone gets a flu shot or to guarantee the activities of a British manufacturing plant. Still, it have people upset, includingMark A. R. Kleiman. Also, Kerry Ad Says Flu Vaccine Shortage Is Typical of Bush’s Policy Blunders. Meanwhile,Kevin Drum ponders the whole issue and provides links aplenty.
    • Flu Vaccine an Issue in Presidential Race
    • Cheney Got Flu Shot, Aides Say, Citing Heart Issue
    • Lawmakers getting flu shot sparks debate

  • STEM CELLS
    To some degree this function as a substitute for the abortion debate. However, the main purpose of the stem cell debate for Kerry is to raise the spectre that Bush is a religious luddite who will place arcane doctrine over science and saving lives. Of course, Edwards took the entire discuss to the level of sad parody and/or cruel expectation generation when he said “"If we do the work that we can do in this country, the work that we will do when John Kerry is president, people like Christopher Reeve will get up out of that wheelchair and walk again.” That has to rank as one of the most shameless statements in the history of American politics, not to mention a blatant exploitation of a man’s death.

    • Kerry Promotes Expanded Stem Cell Research
    • Bush, Kerry Tangle on Health Care, Stem Cells.

    • Kerry Calls for Science, Tech Investment

POLLING (And we all now how painful that can be).

  • What the polls are telling us.
  • Some key red states are still hard to pin down.
  • Polls Apart.
  • Poll Shows Split Views on Iraq War.
  • WaPo: Charting the Campaign.
  • Eight states, 99 electoral votes draw focus from Bush, Kerry
  • Yahoo! News - Analysis: 8 States May Decide Election
  • For all the polling and Electoral College Info you can take:

    • Daly Thoughts and Dales’ Electoral College Breakdown 2004

    • Election Projection - 2004 Edition
    • RealClearPolitics.
    • The Hedgehog Report
    • PollingReport.com


KILL ALL THE LAWYERS (The Shakespearen section)

No doubt the biggest problem we face is the potential unleashing of 1000s of lawsuits during the election, so as to turn demoracy into litagation. I fear this more than any other outcome on election day.

  • Election Protests Already Starting
  • Both Sides Ready to Mount Legal Challenges to Election Results.
  • Florida Under the Magnifying Glass.
  • Candidates prepare for recount.
  • Lawyers Keep Eyes On Election, Polling Places May Be Challenged.
  • A look at lawsuits, voting problems and other ballot issues around the country.

Filed under: US Politics: 2004 Campaign
  • The Command Post - 2004 US Presidential Election linked with The Toast is Back in Town
  • The Glittering Eye linked with The Toast-O-Meter is Back!
  • ProfessorBainbridge.com linked with Toast
  • Accidental Verbosity linked with For the next to the next to the last time...
  • Backcountry Conservative linked with Pre-Election Toast-o-Meter
  • Simon World linked with Enemablog
  • VodkaPundit linked with Linkfest and Kleenex
  • Simon World linked with Enemablog
  • The American Mind linked with Butter Please
  • bLogicus linked with Toast-O-Meter Rounds-Up, Summarizes Pre-Election Status
  • Dean\’s World linked with Toast-O-Meter
  • Dean\’s World linked with Toast-O-Meter
  • Accidental Verbosity linked with a pingback
  • Teacher\’s Ramblings linked with Toast-O-Meter Returns
  • Outside The Beltway linked with The Toast-O-Meter Returns!
  • Overtaken by Events linked with Toasty Warm

Click here to go to the main page.

2 Comments»

The URI to TrackBack this entry is: http://www.poliblogger.com/wp-trackback.php/5047

  1. Gosh, where to begin. First, glad you’re back. Second, I disagree that Bush is clearly vulnerable.
    The only “vulnerability” I see is which lie the DNC spouts that isn’t rebutted quickly enough. People don’t feel comfortable with Kerry, and I think that will carry Bush to a decisive win.

    Comment by Ron — Thursday, October 21, 2004 @ 10:42 pm

  2. Don’t get over confident Ron. While I certainly agree with you… You have to realize that this isn’t an election between President Bush and John Kerry. This election is between President Bush and the War on Terrorism. It is about whether or not any particular voter voting will support going after the Terrorists or backing down due to casaulties. A lot of ‘weak heated’ Americans are going towards John Kerry, not because of John Kerry, but because in a war there are casaulties.

    Comment by Jeff MacMillan — Friday, October 22, 2004 @ 4:22 pm

RSS feed for these comments.

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title="" rel=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>

(required)

(required)


Take a Look At This!
  • Tabloid News
  • Word of The Day
  • Chronograph Watches
  • Office Shredders
  • Cash Registers
  • Ricoh Fax Machines
  • IBM Typewriters
  • Copy Machines
  • UNIX Consulting
  • Web Design
Inquiries
Blogroll


Visitors Since 2/15/03
---

Powered by WordPress