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Saturday, October 9, 2004
Kerry up by One in Latest Zogby Tracking Poll

By Steven Taylor @ 3:36 pm

POLL: Kerry Takes Slight One-Point Lead Over Bush

Democratic challenger John Kerry moved into a slight one-point lead over President Bush in a tight White House race, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Saturday.

Kerry pulled ahead of Bush 46-45 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which concluded before the start of Friday night’s televised debate between the two contenders in St. Louis, Missouri.

Filed under: US Politics: 2004 Campaign

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4 Comments»

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  1. Is it me, or have the polls moved from oversampling Republicans two weeks ago to oversampling democrats now - automatically showing a “shift” or “momentum” to Kerry?

    I am trying hard to convince myself I am just seeing things.

    Comment by Steven L. — Saturday, October 9, 2004 @ 4:32 pm

  2. Ok, I just did some research, and I am not apparently crazy - Time, Newswwek and ABC all seem to have done the same thing.

    Is “coincidence” the word I am looking for?

    Comment by Steven L. — Saturday, October 9, 2004 @ 5:28 pm

  3. No, “co-incidence” is most definitely not the word you want.

    Comment by Dodd — Saturday, October 9, 2004 @ 5:49 pm

  4. I stopped trusting Zogby a long time ago. His brother is head of some Muslim council somewhere. Zogby himself is very much pro-Democrat. Rush Limbaugh used to laud Zogby’s accuracy, I think Zogby has since decided that some things are more important than accurate polling.

    ***

    It would be nice if somebody who knew what they were doing took the internals from the old Bush is leading polls, corrected them for oversampling, combined those with the new Kerry is winning poll internals, and produced a corrected graph.

    The campaigns provide the best indication of which way the vote will go: Kerry has pulled out of states where he thought he might have a chance, put Edwards into New Jersey, and is spending money shoring up states he was supposed to win. On the other hand, Bush is campaigning in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and has a chance in other states that were supposed to be safe for Kerry.

    There are 3 weeks to go and it’s going to get awfully ugly. Kerry has nothing knew to use, and Bush is only now beginning to fight. The problem is that while Kerry has pretty much expended his ammo, he also has nothing left to lose.

    Comment by Remy Logan — Sunday, October 10, 2004 @ 12:55 am

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