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Saturday, February 28, 2004
It’s The “Change is Coming” Version of the Toast-O-Meter

By Steven Taylor @ 11:12 am

-Toast: It’s not Just for Breakfast Anymore!-

The Toast-o-meter: A Weekly News Round-Up and Handicapping of the Race for the Democratic Nomination.

The Toast-O-Meter comes to you Fortified with linkage and Enhanced with bloggage.

It�s the �Change is Coming� Edition of the Toast-O-Meter, because, let�s face facts, Kerry is going to have a HUGH Snoozer Tuesday and Edwards, who may still try to limp to Southern Tuesday, is going to be burnt toast for sure after this week.

The scale:

  • Wonder Bread (The nomination is in reach)
  • Just Plain Ol� White Bread (Still in the race; has a shot)
  • Toast (Pretty much done�a little scraping might make you look like bread, but you’re done)
  • Burnt Toast (Really, really done)
  • Burnt all the Way Through (Why are you still in the race?)
  • Crumbs in the Bottom of the Toaster (Why did you ever get in the race in the first place?)

    Potential Movements each Week:

  • Dough is on the Rise
  • Heat�s Off This Week
  • The heat is on.
  • Got Scraped a Bit
  • Getting Darker

    The Whole Loaf: Can any of the Four make Bush into Texas Toast?

  • According to Zogby International, Bush’s approval numbers have edged up a tad to 51%.
  • Bush focuses on raising campaign cash
  • Of course, the big issue of the week is the FMA and there is plenty to read about that (just go here and scroll down).

    Slicing up this Week’s Contests

    Super, or Snoozer? Well, let’s be direct: zzzzzzzzzzz.

    And when am I going to get an apology from all those folks who argued that a brokered convention could really happen?

    Tuesday brings us the following contests:

    New York
    Rhode Island

    Of these only Maryland and Georgia appear to be competitive. Although the latest numbers from Georgia and Maryland suggest that it might be Sweeper Tuesday.

    Dave Wissing�s The Hedgehog Report has all the polling.

    And if Snoozer Tuesday doesn’t exhaust your need for political entertainment, don’t forget the March 8th contest in American Samoa (which is so important that I can’t confirm if it is a caucus or a primary, even from the DNC homepage).

    There are some stories worth noting, however:

  • CA has some important Ballot Initiatives that will be decided. Some more good info here.
  • Electronic Vote Faces Big Test of Its Security
    Millions of voters in 10 states will cast ballots on Tuesday in the single biggest test so far of new touchscreen voting machines that have been billed as one of the best answers to the Florida election debacle of 2000. But many computer security experts worry that the machines could allow democracy to be hacked.

    Here in Georgia, along with Maryland and California, an estimated six million people will be using machines from Diebold Election Systems, which has been the focus of the biggest controversy.



    Let�s face facts: Kerry�s the nominee. Get your NoDoze now, it�s gonna be a loooong eight months.

  • Edwards is West Coast Toast: Kerry has big lead among state voters
    One week before California’s presidential primary election, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry holds a commanding lead - 60 percent to 19 percent - over North Carolina Sen. John Edwards among likely voters, a poll released today shows.

  • The NYT issued A Primary Endorsement in Kerry’s favor. Robert Tagorda has some thoughtful commentary and linakage on the Times’ endorsement.
  • Steve Bainbridge comments on Kerry’s Benedict Arnold Money.
  • Slate’s Fred Kaplan provides John Kerry’s Defense Defense - Setting his voting record straight. (Hat Tip: Dean’s World)
  • The NYT reviews the Kerry of the esrly 1970’s:In ‘71 Antiwar Words, a Complex View of Kerry.
  • This week Kerry Hits Foreign Policy in a speech at UCLA. From the WaPo write-up it sound a lot like: “Bush is bad at foreign policy, and I will be better” with a few red-meat sound bites thrown in.
  • And, in case you missed it: Kerry’s House of Ketchup #1.



    While I expect Edwards will probably hang on until the 9th, he has to know in his heart of hearts that he is as toasty as toast can be.

  • Ya think? Edwards Says He’ll Stay in Past Tuesday. And the headine brings to mind something my mother used to say: “If wishes were horses, beggers would ride.”
  • Things you don’t want to hear if you are a canidate: Edwards not a slam-dunk favorite in home state of N.C. (just ask Gore…).
  • James Joyner notes thatEdwards Could Win . . . Georgia and The Political Wire reports that Martyland could be competitive.
  • Says Baltimore Sun columnist Steve Chapman: Slippery views make it hard to get a handle on John Edwards.
  • Edwards’ strategy in Ohio: It’s the economy.
  • Just keep repeating that to yourself, John: Edwards Says Democratic Race Is Not Over .
  • Professor Bainbridge also weighs in on John Edwards’ profession and its effects on jobs.
  • USAT has a profile on Edwards: Edwards: Keeps it simple, energetic and to-the-point. Read the profiles while you can-they won’t be around much longer. (Hat tip: the Political Wire)

    THE CRUMB PILE (a.k.a., �Comic Relief�)

    There has been an increasing number of stories that simply lump Sharpton and Kucinich together:

  • Democrats Kucinich, Sharpton in Race for Long Haul

  • The Chicago Tribune has a question for the Crumb Pile: Why?

    Kucinich: Crumbs at the bottom of the toaster

  • Well, he did come in second in Hawaii!

    Sharpton: Crumbs at the bottom of the toaster

  • No doubt he’ll be thrilled to speak to Rev. Al: Al Sharpton Plans to Meet Haitian Leader. Al’s “Be Like Jesse” Tour continues.


  • The headline every candidates longs for: Convicted Felon Running in Democratic Primary.
  • Imagine that: Lyndon LaRouche Criticizes Utah.


    Evan Bayh: Robert Novak suggests that Indiana Senator Evan Bayh might be a possible selection for Kerry. The reason is that Bayh has a high rating from the American Conservative Union (at least for a Democrat).



    Even from outside the loaf, Dean still remains a topic of discussion. For example:

  • Kerry, Edwards Target Dean Supporters.
  • Dean, Ex-Aide Movements Confuse Backers.
  • Ex-US candidate Dean unveils outline of new political group.
  • Howard Dean Supporters Still Campaigning.


  • Nader is back to spoil an election.

  • Filed under: 2004 Campaign
    • Outside the Beltway linked with Toast-O-Meter Update
    • Signifying Nothing linked with More toast
    • linked with Congratulations to Poliblogger
    • Mark the Pundit linked with Toast
    • CALIFORNIA YANKEE linked with This Week's Toast Is Up
    • Backcountry Conservative linked with Around the Blogroll
    • Insults Unpunished linked with Presidential Approval

    Click here to go to the main page.


    1. Guam is a closed caucus with 3 of 5 delegates to be allotted.

      From my youthful teens in the early ’80s, I recall professional wrestling tag team called The Samoans, and they looked like Kucinich voters to me.

      Comment by mark — Saturday, February 28, 2004 @ 11:46 am

    2. I watched part of the Democratic debate - it appeared that Edwards is not really interested in winning here, but just playing nice and helping the party bash Bush - but while in the “race,” the democratic primaries still get free press.

      Is he staying in to help get this press? Perhaps angling for a veep slot (which would seem unlikely) or just banking some favors from the party for later? Or is that to conspiracy theory-ish?

      Comment by Steven L. — Saturday, February 28, 2004 @ 11:43 pm

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