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Saturday, February 21, 2004
The Toast-O-Meter is Finally Here

By Steven Taylor @ 10:57 pm

-Toast: It’s not Just for Breakfast Anymore!-

The Toast-o-meter: A Weekly News Round-Up and Handicapping of the Race for the Democratic Nomination.

The Toast-O-Meter comes to you Fortified with linkage and Enhanced with bloggage.

Pretty soon the Toast-O-Meter is going to have to go to a two-slicer with only Bush and Kerry-and I suspect that by Mid-March we will have cleaned out the toaster completely, save for the comic relief and Kerry [insert your own joke here-Ed.].

Still, for the moment, the story is still about the Democratic nomination, so here we go:

The scale:

  • Wonder Bread (The nomination is in reach)
  • Just Plain Ol� White Bread (Still in the race; has a shot)
  • Toast (Pretty much done�a little scraping might make you look like bread, but you’re done)
  • Burnt Toast (Really, really done)
  • Burnt all the Way Through (Why are you still in the race?)
  • Crumbs in the Bottom of the Toaster (Why did you ever get in the race in the first place?)

    Potential Movements each Week:

  • Dough is on the Rise
  • Heat�s Off This Week
  • The heat is on.
  • Got Scraped a Bit
  • Getting Darker

    The Whole Loaf: Can any of the Dems make Bush into Texas Toast?

    (there continues to be heat on Bush).

  • No surprise here: Most Say Jobs a Top Campaign Issue.
  • Dismal Six Weeks for Bush Has Supporters Edgy:
    “This may have been the worst six weeks of Bush’s political career,” said Rick Davis, who managed the 2000 presidential bid by Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain which lost to Bush.
  • Gaffes by Bush Economic Team Worry Conservatives.
  • What? That’s all? Bush Starts February With $104M in Bank.

    Slicing up this Week’s Contests

    If March 2nd is �Super Tuesday� then February 24th is �Forgotten Tuesday,� as it appears that the candidates have written off the contests in Idaho, Utah and Hawaii.

    I am still at a loss as to why Edwards didn’t make a push in some of these states to try to wrack up another win prior to Super Tuesday.

    According to the NYT, the polls show Kerry in the lead in all three states�and the only way any of the Forgotten Tuesday contests will make any difference is if Kerry loses one.

  • Hopefuls ignore the small states.
  • From the Salt Lake City Tribune: Democratic hopefuls to visit Utah? Yeah, right.
  • Utah Democrats get to show primary colors.
  • Little guys on political block used to snubs.
  • Here’s proof that the Hawaii Caucuses clearly don’t mean much: Dean, Kucinich could be factors in island’s caucuses.
  • Idaho Democrats Set for Next Week’s Caucus.


    Kerry: French-looking Wonder Bread (dough on the rise)

    The math is increasingly in Kerry�s favor, especially since Edwards does not seem to be gaining any ground in major Super Tuesday polling.

  • You can tell who the Reps think is winning: For GOP, it’s all Kerry, all the time Little ammo being spent on Edwards.
  • The Hedgehog Report has numbers on a number of Super Tuesday states-and all the recent look Kerry-ish, very Kerry-ish.
  • The delegate counts are in his favor as well (rather substantially, in fact).
  • Poll: Kerry Leads Among N.Y. Democrats (indeed, in a big way: 66 to 14).
  • Imagine that: Kerry’s Past to Star in Bush’s Ads:
    President Bush’s reelection campaign has decided to focus its coming advertising barrage not only on John F. Kerry’s record as a senator but also on his days as an antiwar activist, a House candidate and Massachusetts’s lieutenant governor.

  • Blunt and Influential, Kerry’s Wife Is an X Factor
  • Robert Tagorda writes on Kerry and special interest.
  • Robert Prather has a link to the audio of Kerry’s 1971 Congressional Testimony.


    Edwards: Stale White Bread (dough rose a bit, but not as significantly as many might have hoped)

    Despite speculation that Edwards might be able to catch up with Kerry, I would note a few numbers:

  • 1: The number of primaries Edwards has won.

  • 61%: The percentage of remaining delegates (accounting for Super Delegates as well) that Edwards has to win from here until the end to capture the nomination.
  • 48%: The same number for Kerry.
  • Gore will speak in Boise instead of Edwards
    Edwards pulled out Wednesday of the sold-out event because he is now in a two-man race with front-runner Sen. John Kerry for the Democratic nomination for President after Vermont Gov. Howard Dean stepped out. Edwards won�t visit Idaho, where caucuses are Tuesday. The North Carolina lawyer chose to concentrate his campaign efforts in Ohio, New York and Minnesota, which have far more delegates. Those elections are March 2.

  • Rejuvenated Edwards faces tough task
    Despite his strong showing in Wisconsin, Sen. John Edwards faces a sobering uphill battle to overcome Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry’s big lead in the race for delegates to secure the party’s nomination.

    Now the headline and the lead paragraphseems at odds-and in a way that much of the press wants to tell this story. The bottom line is that yes, Edwards had a good showing in WI, but the bottom line is that he lost and that he has only won one primary total. And he is in a two-man race not because of his own prowess, but because everyone else has dropped out.

  • Professor Bainbridge points to a Saletan piece that argues Edwards could still win if voters wake up and smell the electability.

    THE CRUMB PILE (a.k.a., �Comic Relief�)

    Kucinich: Crumbs at the bottom of the toaster

  • Rep. Kucinich Plans Brief Campaign Stop in Utah.
  • Vote Vegan? Well, He Isn’t Chopped Liver.

    Sharpton: Crumbs at the bottom of the toaster

  • Sharpton denied spot on La. ballot.
  • It can’t feel good: Sharpton’s got no-mentum.


  • Lucky Mississippi: Larouche Makes Campaign Stop Here. Yes, Virginia, there is a Lyndon Larouche.



    Despite the insistence that he would continue on beyond Wisconsin, he ended up having to withdraw from the race this week. However, for some insane reason, he decided not to endorse a given candidate, but instead marginalized himself even further by telling his supporters to continue to vote for him.

  • The CSM reports on Where the ‘Deaniacs’ go now.
  • Dean apparently alienated supporters towards the end of his campaign including having one union leader call him “nuts”.


  • James Joyner notes this Bob Graham is willing to be Kerry’s veep.


  • Nader to Announce Decision on 2004 Bid. All indications are that he will run.

  • Filed under: 2004 Campaign
    • Insults Unpunished linked with The Weekly Assessment Of The Democratic Candidates Is Up
    • Signifying Nothing linked with Toast time
    • CALIFORNIA YANKEE linked with This Week's Toast Is Up
    • Outside the Beltway linked with Toast-O-Meter Update
    • Mark the Pundit linked with Toast Time
    • Backcountry Conservative linked with Toasted
    • King of Fools linked with Smell Something?

    Click here to go to the main page.


    1. Regarding the Vice-Loaf, hopefully Treebeard is smart enough to keep Senator Bowel Movement off the ticket.

      Comment by Robert Prather — Saturday, February 21, 2004 @ 11:06 pm

    2. OK, I understand why nobody’s bothered with UT - they defunded the primary, for crying out loud - and ID Democrats probably all come with radio collars and court orders forbidding you to develop their last remaining habitats. But whyinhell was Kuchinich the only one to campaign in Hawaii? What, we won’t let them hit the beach, or something?

      Comment by Moe Lane — Monday, February 23, 2004 @ 7:45 am

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