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Thursday, February 19, 2004
Inside the Numbers Redux

By Steven Taylor @ 3:59 pm

Ok, here we go again (and, plus, CNN updated their numbers this afternoon-and solved a problem that they had with the WI numbers).

I have re-done the analysis of the Democratic Delegates. My thanks to Moe Lane of Obsidian Wings for pointing out that I had misread the CNN chart. I have corrected the error and have correctly broken out the pledged/unpledged delegates to do the calculations.

Even with the fix, it is the case that Edwards has a substantial uphill battle ahead. And while the fluidity of the Superdelegates could be a factor, I still think it would take a substantial implosion on Kerry�s part for Edwards to win the appropriate number of delegates.

LEGEND

Total Delegates=The count (via CNN) of ALL delegates per candidate.

SuperD’s as of 2/18/04=The currently publicly committed SuperD (subject to change)

Pledged Delegates=Those won in primaries or caucuses to date.

Needed to win (including SuperDs)=The number of delegates needed by a candidate to secure the nomination, taking account of the committed, but fluid, SuperDs)

Needed to win sans SuperDs=the number of delegates needed to win outright without any SuperDs.

This is my entry in today’s Beltway Traffic Jam.

Filed under: 2004 Campaign
  • ProfessorBainbridge.com linked with Can Edwards Win?

Click here to go to the main page.

4 Comments»

  1. So, you’re saying Kucinich is still in it, right?

    Comment by James Joyner — Thursday, February 19, 2004 @ 4:13 pm

  2. I’m telling ya, Dennis is only in this thing to party with college women. Shoot, better than that: he’s being paid by the government to party with college women (he gets matching funds, right?). It’s a plan breathtaking in its audacity, to the point where I’m only the tiniest bit offended that he’s using my tax money to do it.

    Moe

    PS: New numbers look good - I’ll also note that Kerry hasn’t been consistently getting 63% of the pledged delegates to date. In fact, when this all started, he needed only 61% of the pledged delegates…

    Comment by Moe Lane — Friday, February 20, 2004 @ 8:13 am

  3. It looks to me like your chart is still not right.

    You’ve got Dean and Edwards flipped. Dean (not Edwards) has 202 total delegates, with 96 of those as superdelegates, according to CNN. This makes sense because Edwards has had more success in the election, while Edwards was able to convince more superdelegates early on, when it looked like he was the frontrunner.

    Comment by BTD Greg — Friday, February 20, 2004 @ 9:10 am

  4. You are correct. That, however, is just a mental typo.

    I will fix it this afternoon.

    Comment by Steven — Friday, February 20, 2004 @ 9:58 am

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