Look Who's Linking to PoliBlog:
Absinthe and Cookies
Accidental Verbosity
Admiral Quixote's Roundtable
All Day Permanent Red
All Things Jennifer
Ann Althouse
The American Mind
Arguing with signposts
The Astute Blogger
Asymmeterical Information
B-Town Blog Boys
Backcountry Conservative
Balloon Juice
Bananas and Such Begging to Differ
The Bemusement Park
Bewtween the Coasts
Betsy's Page
The Big Picture
Blogs for Bush
Boots and Sabers
The Bully Pulpit
Caffeinated Musing
California Yankee
Captain's Quarters
Chicago Report
Chicagoland of Confusion
Citizen Smash
Collected Thoughts
The Command Post
Common Sense and Wonder
Confessions Of A Political Junkie
Conservative and Right
Cranial Cavity
The Daily Lemon
Daly Thoughts
DANEgerus Weblog
Dart Frog on a Cactus
Dean's World Dear Free World
Brad DeLong
Democracy Project
The Disagreeable Conservative Curmudgeon
Down to the Piraeus
Drink this...
Earthly Passions
The Education Wonks
the evangelical outpost
Eye of the Storm
The Flying Space Monkey Chronicles
The Friendly Ghost
Functional, if not decorative
The Galvin Opinion
The Glittering Eye
Haight Speech
The Hedgehog Report
Heh. Indeed.
Hennessy's View
High Desert Skeptic
Robert Holcomb
I love Jet Noise
Idlewild South
Independent Thinker
Insults Unpunished
Internet Ronin
Ipse Dixit
It Can't Rain All The Time...
The Jay Blog
Jen Speaks
Joefish's Freshwater Blog
John Lemon blog
Judicious Asininity
Just On The Other Side
The Kudzu Files
Let's Try Freedom
Liberty Father
Life and Law
Locke, or Demosthenes?
Gary Manca
Mark the Pundit
Mediocre but Unexciting
Mental Hiccups
Miller's Time
Mind of Mog
Minorities For Bush
Mr. Hawaii
The Moderate Voice
The Modulator
Much Ado
Mungowitz End
My opinion counts
my thoughts, without the penny charge
My Word
Neophyte Pundit
New England Republican
NewsHawk Daily
neWs Round-Up
No Pundit Intended
Nobody asked me, but...
Obsidian Wings
Occam's Toothbrush
On the Fritz
On the Third Hand
One Fine Jay
Out of Context
Outside the Beltway
Peppermint Patty
John Pierce
The Politicker
The Politburo Diktat
Political Annotation
Political Blog For The Politically Incorrect
Power Politics
Practical Penumbra
Priorities & Frivolities
Prof. Blogger's Pontifications
Pundit Heads
The Queen of All Evil
Quotes, Thoughts, and other Ramblings
Ramblings' Journal
Random Acts of Kindness
Random Nuclear Strikes
Ranting Rationalist
Read My Lips
Reagan Country
A Republican's Blog
The Review
Right Side of the Rainbow
Right Wingin-It
Right Wing News
Right Voices
Rightward Reasonings
riting on the wall
Rooftop Report
The Sake of Argument
Secular Sermons
Sha Ka Ree
Shaking Spears
She Who Will Be Obeyed!
The Skeptician
The Skewed
small dead animals
Sneakeasy's Joint
SoCal Law Blog
A Solo Dialogue
Some Great Reward
Southern Musings
Speed of Thought...
Spin Killer
Matthew J. Stinson
The Strange Political Road Trip of Jane Q. Public
Stuff about
Target Centermass
Templar Pundit
The Temporal Globe
Tex the Pontificator
Texas Native
think about it...
Tobacco Road Fogey
Tony Talks Tech
The Trimblog
Use The Forks!!
Wall of Sleep
Weapons of Mass Discussion
Who Knew?
The Window Manager
Winning Again!
WizBang Tech
The World Around You
The Yin Blog
You Big Mouth, You!
Non-Blogs Linking to PoliBlog: - Alabama Weblogs

AJC's 2004 Election Politics Sites and Blogs Campaign Finance
Welcome to World O' Blogs
Yahoo! Directory Political Weblogs
Young Elephant
Monday, December 29, 2003
Partisan ID

By Steven Taylor @ 3:54 pm

Chuck Todd has a piece on swing voters in today’s NYT. The main argument deals with the youth vote. However, the following jumped out at me:

It is a time-honored tradition in campaigns, this quest for the swing voter. But ask yourself: do you know anyone who really vacillates between the two political parties with each election? It’s not common. The vast majority of people always vote the same party-when they vote.

Further, all those people who like to say “I vote for the person, not the party” because it sounds more high-minded than admitting to a *gasp* partisan point-of-view, almost certainly ends up voting, oddly enough for persons in the same party election after election.

Indeed, the idea that large numbers of people are “independent” is simply not true. Sure, they may self-identify as such, but truth be told their voting patterns are usually skewed quite heavily to one party or the other.

Yes, there are voters who will change from one party to the other, especially for President, but they represent a fairly small number of people. I will grant that they can be an important set of persons, however.

The real issue in 2004, however, is likely to be turn-out, but in terms of the base of each party, but also for the non-habitual voters, which is part of Todd’s point.

Filed under: 2004 Campaign

Click here to go to the main page.


  1. Swing voters are out there. They just don’t swing back and forth. They are Republicans who start voting Democrat because they are getting older and want more Social Security/ Medicare stuff. They are Democrats who are getting richer (or want to) and think the Republicans are better on the economy. They are female business owners who have always voted Democrat on social issues, but now are considering financial issues more. They are men who are laid off from their jobs who have always voted Republican but now think the Republicans only want to help the rich.

    It’s usually not “swing” in the sense of back-and-forth. It’s the sizeable number of converts each side gets every year.

    In 2004, I predict the Republicans will get a lot of “foreign policy issue” votes from people who had never voted Republican before. If the Democrats can’t steal back a comparable number of voters, they will be out of luck for while.

    Comment by Rv. Agnos — Monday, December 29, 2003 @ 4:16 pm

  2. Further, all those people who like to say “I vote for the person, not the party” because it sounds more high-minded than admitting to a *gasp* partisan point-of-view, almost certainly ends up voting, oddly enough for persons in the same party election after election.

    That’s because of our 2 party system. If we had a multi-party system you would see people vote more accordingly with their viewpoints. But because we frame only two viable candidates every 4 years, people are forced to “settle” between two watered-down candidates. The one that sloshes closer to your view points will be the one you pick. So what you say may be true, but trying to say that people are being cynical by claiming to vote by person, but voting party lines is wrong. People in this country just don’t have much of a choice.

    Comment by Eric — Monday, December 29, 2003 @ 4:27 pm

  3. There’s lot of choice-there are nine Dems to choose from right now, for example. Plus, I am talking about across offices, not just presidential elections. Face facts, it sounds small minded to be partisan and open minded to “vote the person, not the party.”

    Comment by Steven — Monday, December 29, 2003 @ 4:33 pm

  4. My recollection (not sitting in front of any NES data) is that only 1/10 of the electorate are self-identified true independents, if you use the “branching” version of the question for a 7-point scale; IOW, 9/10 of the electorate are either partisans or leaners (and there is some evidence that leaners are actually stronger partisans than “weak” partisans). However, it jumps to 1/3ish when you don’t branch.

    Of course, the stability of partisanship has led to a giant peeing match in political science. The as-yet unsolved problem is that you can’t empirically distinguish between genuine respondent instability and measurement error.

    Comment by Chris Lawrence — Monday, December 29, 2003 @ 5:12 pm

  5. 10% is the numbers that sticks in my mind as well-indeed, I want to say that it may indeed be as low as 7%. I did a little looking, but not much.

    Comment by Steven — Monday, December 29, 2003 @ 5:16 pm

  6. Swing low, sweet Democrats
    Coming forth to carry Dean home!

    Comment by John Lemon — Monday, December 29, 2003 @ 11:36 pm

  7. I have to both agree and disagree with you. I do believe that independant voters are vitally inmportant during Presidential elections. Voters are innudated with information about each candidate. However, as you approach the local level unless there is a breakout issue (corruption or for the Northern VA area taxes or traffic) each person tends to vote for their reflexive party. Especially at the local level where each voter has very little information about the candidate except for their name and affilation.

    Comment by Jim — Tuesday, December 30, 2003 @ 12:45 am

  8. We have a multi-party system in this country, Eric; 100 state parties (for the moment I discount Puerto Rico, D.C., and the like) that, every four years, briefly give the illusion of coming together to form two national party-federations.

    The problem is not in the much-maligned “two-party system"; it is simply that progressives hate politics. Their definition of “democracy” is their winning every election and ruling unquestioned thereafter.

    Thus, if we had a presidential system where a President was elected by a plurality of the popular vote, a progressive candidate who won with, say, 10% of that vote would result in the progressives’ shouting, “We won! We won! Now shut up and let us trample you for four years!” On the other hand, if a non-progressive candidate won in the same way, they would scream, “90% of the electorate voted against him! He has no legitimacy!”

    Likewise, a parliamentary system that did not include the progressives in the governing coalition would result in cries of “Disenfranchisement!” Including them, however, would result in demands that their entire platform be implemented, lest they withdraw…leading to cries of “Disenfranchisement!” because they are not part of the governing coalition.

    Comment by John “Akatsukami” Braue — Tuesday, December 30, 2003 @ 9:46 am

RSS feed for these comments.

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title="" rel=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>



Take a Look At This!
  • Tabloid News
  • Word of The Day
  • Chronograph Watches
  • Office Shredders
  • Cash Registers
  • Ricoh Fax Machines
  • IBM Typewriters
  • Copy Machines
  • UNIX Consulting
  • Web Design

Visitors Since 2/15/03

Powered by WordPress