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Thursday, December 11, 2003
A Bush Landslide in ‘04?

By Steven Taylor @ 12:28 pm

To this point almost all of my analysis of the 2004 contest has been aimed at either the Democratic nomination, or, to a lesser degree, the basic idea of Any Democrat v. Bush. I do think that Bush has the upper hand going into the race next year, especially now that the economy appears to be rebounding rather significantly. And, I think that Bush will ultimately be viewed as the better choice security-wise.

At this point, I am not prepared to fully handicap the 2004 race state-by-state, but I do agree (as I know have said in at least response to comments) with Taegan Goddard, that Bush v. Dean will not be a McGovern/Mondale-like landslide (i.e., with Dean winning only Vermont and DC). I do think that there is a good chance that it will be a decisive vicotry, but utter destruction, I think not.

Goddard is right to point to Bush’s double-digit losses in CA, NY and IL. I think that the race will be closer in CA and NY, at a minimum, however.

Still, I also think that Dean will win not one state in the South, and will struggle in the West. And in simple terms, if 2004 is exaclty like 2000 in terms of state’s won, Bush gains 7 electoral votes because of reapportionment. And I think that Bush, as the incumbent President, will win more state in ‘04 than he won in ‘00.

There were several extremely close states, like Oregon and New Mexico, to name two, that I would expect to go for Bush in ‘04, which went for Gore in ‘00.

I also think that while Dean is quite capable of captivating the hardcore Democratic base, that his anger routine will not play that well in the general election campaign.

Update: This post is in the BELTWAY TRAFFIC JAM

Filed under: 2004 Campaign

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  1. Steven,

    Do you know if anyone has done any state-by-state polling of Dean vs. Bush?

    Comment by Eric — Thursday, December 11, 2003 @ 12:43 pm

  2. Massacusetts, man. How can any Democrat NOT win Massachusetts?

    I saw a news piece somewhere that in Virginia, Bush beats his nearest Democratic rival by 15%. But that is the only mention of state polls I have heard in a while.

    Comment by mark — Thursday, December 11, 2003 @ 3:04 pm

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