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Saturday, September 27, 2003
ReCAL Round-Up

By Steven Taylor @ 8:31 am

As James of OTB notes in a worth-a-read round-up of the current status of the ReCal, Tom McClintock may end up damaging himself in terms of his long-term political future if he stays in the race-because many may not forgive him for being a “spoliler". However, if he will fall on his sword for the good of the party, he could build sufficent goodwill to aid him in a future run at statewide office. However, his willingness to accept Indian gambling money may not help, as it is perceived as simply the tribes actually supporting Bustamante by trying to boost McC vis-a-vis Arnold.

And McClintock’s defense of the funds will, I think, make him look foolish in the long-run:

McClintock’s campaign rejected the charge that the tribal contributions were part of a secret plot to boost Bustamante’s campaign. The conservative Ventura County lawmaker maintains the donations reflect his 20-year record of supporting tribal sovereignty.

McClintock’s campaign, which has been struggling to raise $500,000 for commercials scheduled to run next week, welcomed the independent expenditure by the tribe.

It seems to be clear to almost all observers, save the cash-strapped McClintock camp, that these gambling interests are trying to elect Bustamante-much in the same way Gray Davis spent a ton of money in the 2002 Republican primaries to aid Bill Simon in his race over Richard Riordan-as Davis knew he would have a better shot against Simon.

Indeed, as a spokesperson for the Schwarzenegger camp put it:

“The Indian casinos are underwriting the candidacies of Bustamante and McClintock, (but) they don’t want them both to win,”

Meawhile, Bob Novak reports that

A principal drafter of President Bush’s tax cuts is now advising Arnold Schwarzenegger in his Republican candidacy for governor in the California recall election.

Cesar Conda, Vice President Dick Cheney’s economic aide until last week, was one of the Bush administration’s leading supply-siders and tax cut advocates.

This addition is especially interest because

Murphy is a top practitioner of “earned media” - unpaid television coverage. Earned media has not been a factor in recent California elections because of limited news coverage, but television has been covering the current recall campaign. Former Gov. Pete Wilson’s political team, which had full control of Schwarzenegger’s campaign until Murphy arrived, is expert in paid media but not in earned media.

At the end of the day, the outcome of this election probably can’t be fully captured by the polls, since there will be a whole lot of new voters this go ’round (meaning “likely voter” and even “registered voter” samples the last month may have missed important elements of state opinion), because voter registration is on the rise which indicates that the recall has fueled the political interest of individuals who did not vote in the past:

The number of Californians registered to vote in the Oct. 7 recall election now is greater than it was for last November’s gubernatorial election, and the big gain is among voters who want to affiliate with none of the state’s political parties.

An unofficial analysis of registration figures shows Republicans have made more significant gains than Democrats in key GOP counties and suffered fewer losses in key Democratic counties, which would seem to improve the chances that Gov. Gray Davis could be recalled.

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  1. Comment by Anonymous — Tuesday, August 10, 2004 @ 3:48 pm

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