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Sunday, February 13, 2024
Iraqi Election Results Today

By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 7:48 am

However, at this point, there appears not to be any hard information

WaPo/The AP has the following: Results Announced in Iraqi Elections

raqi election commission officials on Sunday announced the final results from the country’s landmark Jan. 30 balloting, and the majority Shiites claimed to have won more than 50 percent of the vote.

The officials did not immediately provide overall vote totals for the country, instead giving province-by-province figures in the balloting for 275 National Assembly seats.

However, they said only 3,775 valid votes were cast in the insurgency-plagued Sunni province of Anbar.

The NYT and the AP Wire have that same basic story plus details of violence today in Iraq.

Update: According to MTP: the Sistani list received 48% of the vote, the Kurd list 26% and the Allawi list 14%. Turnout was abput 58% (roughly 8 million votes).

Meanwhile, the NYT has an interesting story on the fall and rise of Chalabi: A Former Exile Sees His Political Hopes Revive in Iraq

Mr. Chalabi’s chances to become prime minister rest on the fragmented nature of the Shiite alliance that is likely to form the government. The group, called the United Iraq Alliance, will likely capture as many as 150 seats in the 275-member assembly. But the alliance has yet to agree on a nominee for prime minister. While Mr. Chalabi by himself has nowhere near enough the allies he needs to secure that nomination, neither so far do either of his main rivals, Ibrahim Al-Jafaari of the Dawa party and Adel Abdul Mahdi of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution.

With each man short of the necessary votes, they are busy scurrying for supporters within the alliance. While Mr. Mahdi and Mr. Jafaari - both from large mainstream Shiite parties - are considered the favorites, the two appear to be deadlocked over the struggle to lead the government. That has given an opening to Mr. Chalabi, and one that he appears to be trying to exploit. According to a rough tally of likely election results, Mr. Chalabi’s coalition, called the Shiite Council, will end up with about 13 seats, compared with about 15 for Mr. Jafaari and 18 for Mr. Mahdi.

To become the Shiite alliance’s candidate for prime minister, one of the candidates would have to secure a majority within the alliance, or about 75 seats. Leaders from both Dawa and the Supreme Council have been busy cutting deals with potential allies.

The deadlock has given Mr. Chalabi a confident glow.

“It’s down to three people now, Jafaari, Adel and me,” Mr. Chalabi said.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

On a more sinister note:

One Iraqi who may hold the key to Mr. Chalabi’s future is Moktada al-Sadr, the young cleric who led a series of armed uprisings against the American military last year. According to aides for both men, Mr. Sadr has promised to back Mr. Chalabi in his bid to become prime minister. Despite his outlaw status - he is under indictment for murder and has been in hiding for months - Mr. Sadr fielded several candidates in the election. Together, his allies appear likely to emerge as the largest single block inside the Shiite alliance, with as many as 21 seats.

Mr. Sadr’s backing would give Mr. Chalabi a substantial boost toward his goal. Without it, Mr. Chalabi’s chances seem slim.

Mr. Sadr, known for his virulently anti-American views and Islamist leanings, seems an unlikely ally of Mr. Chalabi, a pro-Western moderate who supports the continued presence of American forces in Iraq. But in an interview last week in Najaf, Mr. Sadr’s chief aide said that Mr. Sadr had decided to back Mr. Chalabi. The aide, Ali Smesim, said the other candidates were pursuing their narrow agendas.

“The others are baking bread just for themselves,” Mr. Smesim said of Mr. Chalabi’s rivals, employing an Arabic proverb.

But aides to Mr. Chalabi’s main rivals, Mr. Mahdi and Mr. Jafaari, say Mr. Sadr’s support for Mr. Chalabi is not assured. Indeed, they say Mr. Sadr has pledged to support whomever emerges as the top candidate.

Politics, strange bedfellows, and all that. Indeed, it wouldn’t surprise me if al Sadr is trying to position himself as the “key” supporter of whomever it is that wins so that he can demonstrate his “influence.”

My guess is that the factions supporting the other two candidates will end up making a deal rather than let Chalabi take the position.

Filed under: Iraq: Global Politics

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