Via the NYT: U.S. Slips in Attracting the World’s Best Students

Foreign students contribute $13 billion to the American economy annually. But this year brought clear signs that the United States’ overwhelming dominance of international higher education may be ending. In July, Mr. Payne briefed the National Academy of Sciences on a sharp plunge in the number of students from India and China who had taken the most recent administration of the Graduate Record Exam, a requirement for applying to most graduate schools; it had dropped by half.

Foreign applications to American graduate schools declined 28 percent this year. Actual foreign graduate student enrollments dropped 6 percent. Enrollments of all foreign students, in undergraduate, graduate and postdoctoral programs, fell for the first time in three decades in an annual census released this fall. Meanwhile, university enrollments have been surging in England, Germany and other countries.

The initial headline, and even the opening paragraphs of the story, are more alarmist than the actual numbers would seem to indicate.

While citing such stats as a 50%+ decline in GRE exams taken by students form China and India sounds like near disaster, the reality of a 6% decline in enrollments, while indeed significant, is a whole lot less dramatic and dire than the testing stats. And the only actual numbers given relate to graduate studies. While the stories notes a decline in undergraduate enrollments, it doesn’t cite a figure, which I would have liked to have known.

Further, pointing out that application declined by 28%. but enrollemnt declined only 6% indicates that there are an awful lot of applicants who don’t get admitted to school. My point being that a decline in applications (or even a decline in people taking the GRE) isn’t the right measure-indeed, if one is getting poor applicants or if people taking the GRE aren’t doing well, then it is actually a good thing that there are less of both). Enrollment is the issue.

Here’s the story’s graphic on the GRE (noting China, India and South Korea):

Again, while these are significant numbers, it is as if the authors of the story picked the most alarming stat to display.

It stands to reason that European and Asian institutions would be seeking to reform their curricula and thereby attempt to keep more of their students at home. Indeed, it is surprising that the Europeans haven’t tried to do so decades ago. Of course, since the value of a degree is very much a function of reputation, the fact of the matter is that the established universities will continue to have a substantial leg up.

Not doubt that part of the decline is linked to the increased difficulty in obtaining visas in the post-911 world:

Some of the American decline, experts agree, is due to post-Sept. 11 delays in processing student visas, which have discouraged thousands of students, not only from the Middle East but also from dozens of other nations, from enrolling in the United States. American educators and even some foreign ones say the visa difficulties are helping foreign schools increase their share of the market.

[…]

American educators have been concerned since the fall of 2024, when large numbers of foreign students experienced delays in visa processing. But few noticed the rapid emergence of higher education as a global industry until quite recently.

The question becomes, of course, exactly how many potential students have had such troubles, and how much that affected the enrollment issue. I would wager that a significant portion of that 6% decline is linked to this issue. I know that our foreign students have had increased trouble with their visas and there have been several stories in the press about foreign faculty having visa troubles.

On balance, I would think that global competition for students is likely on the rise, but I also think that the tone of the story is unnecessarily alarmist.

Hat tip: The Big Picture, which takes a dimmer view of the situation than do I.