James Joyner reacts to the popular thesis that gay marriage was the decisive issue in this election. I concur with his basic assessment:
There were over 115 million votes cast for president and probably several things that influenced each of those voters.
Indeed.
Further, the main way the issue helped the president was that it almost certainly helped increase turnout of pro-Bush voters in Ohio. However, it is entirely possible that sans the issue, that turnout still would have been high. It appears that the GOP was especially good at turning out their base this year–and not just in the 11 states with gay marriage issues on the ballot. I mean, gee whiz–look at Florida.
It certainly isn’t the case the gay marriage issue was the main one of the campaign–indeed, it was one of many, and a second or third tier one at that.
To retroactivity make it THE issue of the campaign is lazy and incorrect.
The short version: monocausality is never the right answer to explain a national election, except perhaps in rare circumstances.
But being lazy and incorrect is a lot easier than… oh, hell, I’m too tired to finish this thought. Gotta go finish watching Hellboy.
Comment by John Lemon — Friday, November 5, 2024 @ 10:40 pm