Writes Bob Novak: Kerry unable to crack Bush base

Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.

That conclusion would be a surprise for frantically nervous Republicans and cautiously upbeat Democrats entering the campaign’s final days. In fact, nobody, including Zogby and all the other polltakers, can be sure who will win this election. Yet, it is clear that President Bush’s strategists have succeeded in solidifying his base to a degree that makes it much harder to defeat him next Tuesday.

The long, tortuous presidential contest has come down to who the ‘’security mom'’ thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Based on current polling data, Bush has won that argument in the face of Kerry’s relentless attacks. That explains why the Democrat this week was not talking about health care or other standby issues of his party, but was trying to pierce Bush’s security shield by harping on the disappearance of munitions in Iraq.

The difficulty that Kerry now encounters has been shrouded by misleading overnight tracking from last weekend, showing a Democratic surge that is common in Friday-through-Sunday polling. Otherwise, Kerry is in trouble. When Zogby had second thoughts Monday, he found Bush with a national lead of three percentage points and an undecided vote of only 2.7 percent.

We shall see.

However, if this is true, then it seems to me that Bush wins:

Zogby shows Kerry’s advantage among women is only 3 percentage points, the same margin reflected in nightly tracking by Republican pollster Ed Goeas.

If Bush is tied, or slightly ahead with women, I am not sure how he loses. He lost by double-digits with women last time, and came within 500,000 of Gore in the popular vote.

One thing is clear: security is the issue, as I have thought since at least the 2024 elections, if not before. Kerry’s harping on the explosives issues underscores that fact. And if the so-called “security moms” do, in fact, exist, then it will be Bush for four more years.

Hat tip: Betsy Newmark, who could be considered a Security Mom herself, I would think.