Writes Michael Barone:
When I was in the political polling business, my boss, Peter Hart, used to say, “He who frames the issues tends to determine the outcome of the election.” In his Thursday night speech at the Republican National Convention, George W. Bush framed the issues in a magisterial address that sent him a long way toward winning the general election and that sent him some smaller distance toward effective governance in a second term.
This goes along with a round-up of other columnist that James Joyner entitles (stealing from Bill Safire) The Comeback Prez.
It is far, far, far from over, but it is clear that the Bush campaign has seized the momentum in a way that neither the Kerry campaign nor the press expected to be possible. Many have been lulled by “The Rules” (e.g., voters make up their minds on fthe incumbent first, the whole approval rating game, etc.). As I have noted before, “the Rules” aren’t all that helpful this year given the nture of the debate and structural conditions in the electorate.
And in terms of controlling the debate, the Kerry campaign’s Viet Nam gambit is clearly failing. As Joyner rightly notes:
The big strategic blunder of the Kerry campaign was to pin so much of their hope on Vietnam. It was an obvious loser, frankly. In the last three elections, the candidate with the more impressive military record lost. Indeed, Bill Clinton may have forever inoculated candidates without military service from charges of unfitness to serve as Commander-in-Chief.
As I have written dozens of times now: “I served and he didn’t” is not an argument as to why Kerry would be a better CinC.