GOP Hopes Local Turmoil Won’t Hurt Bush

a host of local controversies have scuffed the Republican brand name in Ohio. The most malodorous of these involves allegations of improper fundraising and self-dealing by the two consultants to Republican state House Speaker Larry Householder.

[…]

These disclosures may be titillating, but no analysts of Ohio politics think they will be a large factor in the presidential vote. The problem for Republicans is that something need not be a large factor this year to be a pivotal one. As Taft put in a recent interview, “Ohio may be this year’s Florida. This will be too close to call until November 2nd,” he said. “I don’t think there’s any state that’s going to be as closely divided.”

In a survey last week by the University of Cincinnati’s Ohio Poll, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) led Bush among likely voters 48 to 46 percent, with independent Ralph Nader garnering 1 percent. A Gallup poll in Ohio also showed a two-point spread favoring Kerry, but when the pool of respondents was expanded to include all registered voters, not just people who voted last time, Kerry was ahead by 10 points.

In such an environment, in which Democrats are eager to stoke grievance wherever they can, the Kerry campaign said it is ready to point to the mess in Columbus as evidence that a shake-up is needed across the board. Kerry state chairman James Ruvolo said the scandal “just fuels voters’ desire for change.”