PoliBlog: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts

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  1. It may have begun, but it’s not officially a recession until it’s lasted “more than a few months” ( http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html and http://faq.bea.gov/cgi-bin/bea.cfg/php/enduser/std_adp.php?p_faqid=485&p_created=1206966790&p_sid=FIQaxEhj&p_accessibility=0&p_redirect=&p_lva=&p_sp=cF9zcmNoPSZwX3NvcnRfYnk9JnBfZ3JpZHNvcnQ9JnBfcm93X2NudD0zODYsMzg2JnBfcHJvZHM9JnBfY2F0cz0mcF9wdj0mcF9jdj0mcF9zZWFyY2hfdHlwZT1hbnN3ZXJzLnNlYXJjaF9ubCZwX3BhZ2U9MQ**&p_li=&p_topview=1 )

    Comment by Max Lybbert — Thursday, October 30, 2008 @ 11:27 am

  2. Oops. Better link at http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html (“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months”).

    Comment by Max Lybbert — Thursday, October 30, 2008 @ 11:28 am

  3. I’m saying this now-for the record-this is the beginning of the OBAMA recession. We know that the Dems are going to blame their ineffectiveness on inheriting Bush’s problems.

    But since the recession comes the day after Obama’s infomercial, it is clear he is the responsible party.

    Comment by Ratoe — Thursday, October 30, 2008 @ 11:44 am

  4. Ok. So, now the question is, how long will said recession last? I’m betting two quarters. This would actually be impressive because it would mean people won’t Christmas shop us out of this recession. Sometime in spring ’09 home sales will hit an uptick and then it’s on to Boardwalk and Park Place.

    Comment by King Politics — Thursday, October 30, 2008 @ 1:07 pm

  5. Max,

    I do understand that-however, I am sufficiently convinced that things aren’t likely to grow in the 4th qtr, so I am content to assert that it has begun.

    I will be quite happy if I am wrong, of course.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, October 30, 2008 @ 2:17 pm

  6. I agree with you. I just wanted to mention the fact that officially we “find out” about these things much later. Sometimes after the recession is over, in ffact.

    Comment by Max Lybbert — Thursday, October 30, 2008 @ 5:53 pm

  7. True. I just fear that this one may last long enough that we will know we are in it before it is over. Although may King be right-two quarters would be a minor miracle and welcome news.

    Comment by Dr. Steven Taylor — Thursday, October 30, 2008 @ 7:41 pm

  8. I’m expecting a longer than two-quarters recession. But I don’t think the trough will be all that far down. We’ve been in an economic panic all year (everybody has been antsy there would be a recession, and until this last report nothing ever materialized) and I believe that the current news that there is now a shrinking economy won’t change many behaviors in business or personal lives.

    Then again, the company I work at is located in Nevada, and we have a sales office in New York. This week one of the salesmen reported that New York companies are laying off by the boatload, while around here I haven’t seen many staff cuts. So my perspective may be skewed.

    Comment by Max Lybbert — Friday, October 31, 2008 @ 10:55 am

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