Earlier in the week, the USAT/Gallup Poll had Bush’s approval rating at 31%. Now the NYT/CBS News Poll has the number at 31% as well: Bush’s Public Approval at New Low Point.
As if often the case, many on the President’s side are asserting that the numbers are flawed because of the breakdown of Reps and Dems in the sample.
First, even if we stipulate, for the sake of argument, that the partisan ratio is a problem, with approval numbers at 31% in two major polls, the fact of the matter is that even if one pumps some extra points into that 31%, the number is still bad–indeed, it is very bad.
As such, to simply complain about sampling techniques is to worry about hangnails when you have lung cancer. This presidency is in a very bad place right now, and to quibble over partisan bias in the polls is to be changing the subject.
Second, and far more importantly the ratio of partisans in the poll’s sample doesn’t matter that much. Charles Franklin, professor of political science who teaches “statistical analysis of polls, public opinion and election results” did some analysis of this issue last month and found:
In only 12.1% of polls over the last 15 months has the partisan balance made more than a +/- 1% difference in approval. In NO polls over that time has it made as much as a +/- 2% difference.[...]
What the analysis here shows is that the effect of the partisan distribution in a poll has less impact on that poll’s estimate of approval than is often assumed. The effect isn’t nil, but neither is it large.
(Emphasis mine). So, Republicans should take no solace in the ratio of Reps to Dems in the sample. These numbers are very bad for the President, and there is no disputing that fact.
If one looks at the various questions within the poll, one finds that Bush scores poorly on Iraq (28% approval), Foreign Policy (27%), Immigration (26%) and gas prices (13%).
When one notes the immigration number, can there be any doubt that there are a number of Bush’s co-partisans who don’t approve of the job that he is doing in that area, and therefore probably overall? (In case it has escaped one’s notice, many who oppose Bush’s approach to immigration are quite passionate about the topic).
He does still score a plurality of approval (46%) on his overall handling of terrorism.
Really, if we are going to think about this approval question (especially if one is going to criticize/reject the poll numbers): what exactly does one think Bush has done that would garner him a great deal of good will? Even with the base, I would think that judicial nominations and taxes would be in his column, and perhaps Afghanistan and even the overall approach to terrorism. Beyond that, however, from whence is all this good will going to emerge?
No, the 31% number makes sense, despite partisan complaining about sample techniques. (Or, the other hypothesis: that the numbers are the fault of negative press–of course, it isn’t as if the negative press has been made up out of whole cloth).
Update: On the same theme, James Joyner notes a study that state that Iraq is less popular than Viet Nam at the same point in the respective wars.
May 10th, 2024 at 10:53 am
Really, if we are going to think about this approval question (especially if one is going to criticize/reject the poll numbers): what exactly does one think Bush has done that would garner him a great deal of good will?
Well, for one thing, he nominated Alphonso Jackson to his cabinet. Jackson, of course, has supported the base by guiding government contracts to Bush backers and denying contracts to companies with representatives who may be critical of the President.
By appointing upstanding citizens like Jackson to cabinet position, this shows Bush’s excellent judgment and concern for effective governance.
May 10th, 2024 at 5:47 pm
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Impeachment over Immigration?
By Dr. Steven Taylor @ 5:46 pm
This morning I noted that one of the factors that is damaging President Bush’s approval numbers with his base is the [...]