Now that there has been a set of marches, the obvious question is: what is the effect?
The immediate effects are probably nothing more than that today a lot of people have had their position on immigration reform, if not on immigrants themselves, hardened further in a negative direction. Another immediate response is that there are probably a number of marchers who are today finding that they lost jobs (although one guesses that number is relatively small–even employers angered by the May Day absenteeism will find that the cost of replacing the worker in question outweighs the satisfaction of meting out summary justice).
In terms of immigration legislation, one suspects that the hardening of views noted above will make it less likely that reform will pass. Indeed, I will be surprised if any legislation is passed prior to the elections.
The following certainly remains to be the case:
- There are at least 11-12 million illegal immigrants residing in the United States, some for decades. They aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Extricating them is a practical impossibility–and no amount of indignation over that fact will change that reality.
- We will never be able to fully control the border (although I suppose that it depends on what “control” means). It is too long, it would cost too much, and more to the point: the legitimate flow of goods and persons is so massive as to make it impossible to stop illegal immigration. Yes, it could be slowed, depending on how much we want to spend on the proposition. Stopping it, however, isn’t going to happen. Precisely how much it could be slowed is a matter of debate.
- The main engine of the flow is economic. The basic forces of supply and demand for low skill, low wage jobs are at the heart of this situation, and the fact of the matter is people in desperate situations will risk everything for a better life.
- Despite the prevailing mythology, the main motivator for the northward flow isn’t the welfare state.
- While there is no doubt that there are costs associated with the illegal flow–in some cases serious ones, to analyze problem as one solely of costs, and to ignore the economic benefits, not to mention the fact that despite the prevailing convention wisdom, illegal immigrants who work (their main reason for coming) pay taxes, is to be engaging in incomplete analysis.
These, and others, are incontrovertible facts that no amount of frustration will change. And certainly none of it was changed by yesterday’s events. Any policy solution has to take all of these facts into account. Further, we are ultimately talking about human beings, not just numbers.
James Joyner has a round up of the news coverage of the events.
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May 2nd, 2006 at 9:19 am
[...] is “illegal immigration protesting” worth it? Dr. Steven Taylor at Poliblogger ask that very question: The immediate effects are probably nothing more than that today a lot of people have h [...]
May 2nd, 2006 at 9:49 am
I will be surprised if any legislation is passed prior to the elections.
That does not strike me as in any way a bad thing. There is no consensus–don’t ram something through that will only further exacerbate the “hardening” that you refer to. (I am not certain that protests do only harden positions, but I am quite certain that anything resembling the House bill becoming law would do so.)
Why not let it be an election issue? Preferably in a national election, which a midterm is not, really. Of course, neither are our presidential elections, and therein lies a fundamental problem in determining consensus on anything in this country. I think the immigration issue is a very big test for our political institutions. Can they pass the test? I am very, very pessimistic about that.
May 2nd, 2006 at 10:04 am
I agree: the lack of legislation is likely a good thing.
If anything legislation for legislation’s sake makes no sense.
May 2nd, 2006 at 10:30 am
Well, as El Presidente begins his speech for the cartoon, OUR FIRST MEXICAN PRESIDENT,
“Okay, folks, let’s try this in (heh-heh) English. Look, I know what you’re feeling. You feel the good old USA is being invaded and occupied by a country with a government so rotten, so corrupt and so half-assed that it must dump its own people on us illegally………. Hey, the elite feel your pain. They’re not all globoloco (heh-heh)….”