Richard Clarke (who, I will confess, has often annoyed me in the past) and Steven Simon write about the potential results of an attack on Iran in today’s NYT )Bombs That Would Backfire).

I think that their three areas of possible direct harm from such an attack are all, forgive the phrase, on target:

First, it could attack Persian Gulf oil facilities and tankers — as it did in the mid-1980’s — which could cause oil prices to spike above $80 dollars a barrel.

Second and more likely, Iran could use its terrorist network to strike American targets around the world, including inside the United States. Iran has forces at its command that are far superior to anything Al Qaeda was ever able to field. The Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah has a global reach, and has served in the past as an instrument of Iran. We might hope that Hezbollah, now a political party, would decide that it has too much to lose by joining a war against the United States. But this would be a dangerous bet.

Third, Iran is in a position to make our situation in Iraq far more difficult than it already is. The Badr Brigade and other Shiite militias in Iraq could launch a more deadly campaign against British and American troops. There is every reason to believe that Iran has such a retaliatory shock wave planned and ready.

These are all clearly likely, if not certain, results of such an attack. The economic consequences would be grave (indeed, even if the Iranians didn’t do anything directly, the oil futures markets would go ballistic) and I would think that we would almost certainly suffer terrorist attacks.

And, I think that if tactical nuclear weapons were used that the global backlash against us would substantial–far more than what we saw after the invasion of Iraq.

These are serious and real issues that need to be considered despite the inflammatory rhetoric of the Iranian president.

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3 Responses to “Consequences of an Attack on Iran”

1. Jan Says:
   April 17th, 2006 at 8:09 am

   I completely argree with your assessment of the situation. Do you believe that we are seriously considering attacks on Iran or do you think it is just “saber rattling”?

2. Dr. Steven Taylor Says:
   April 17th, 2006 at 8:17 am

   I can’t fully decide, but lean towards “saber rattling.”

3. Balls Pump Says:
   October 30th, 2006 at 3:36 am

   Balls Pump