Via the NYT: Analysts Say a Nuclear Iran Is Years Away
The official, Muhammad Saeedi, the deputy head of Iran’s atomic energy organization, said Iran would push quickly to put 54,000 centrifuges on line — a vast increase from the 164 the Iranians said Tuesday that they had used to enrich uranium to levels that could fuel a nuclear reactor.Still, nuclear analysts called the claims exaggerated. They said nothing had changed to alter current estimates of when Iran might be able to make a single nuclear weapon, assuming that is its ultimate goal. The United States government has put that at 5 to 10 years, and some analysts have said it could come as late as 2020.
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It took Tehran 21 years of planning and 7 years of sporadic experiments, mostly in secret, to reach its current ability to link 164 spinning centrifuges in what nuclear experts call a cascade. Now, the analysts said, Tehran has to achieve not only consistent results around the clock for many months and years but even higher degrees of precision and mass production. It is as if Iran, having mastered a difficult musical instrument, now faces the challenge of making thousands of them and creating a very large orchestra that always plays in tune and in unison.
I am no expert on this topic–indeed, most of those commenting on this topic aren’t either. As such, it is near to impossible to say, with any degree of accuracy, as to how far away the Iranians really are on this issue.
I do think that it is likely that any estimates given by the Iranians themselves are to be taken with a shaker of salt, as they are clearly in self-aggrandizement mode.
I say this not to downplay the potential threat, which is real, but I also wonder as to the degree to which the threat is as serious as many are making it out to be.
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